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  #1  
Old 18th November 2017, 02:18 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Default Calling the Maths guys

Can anyone answer this:

laying 2 horses per race (mechanical pics) always 2 separate nags.

First 1 S/R to lose is 70%

Second 1 S/R to lose is 95%

What is the projection for both to lose?
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  #2  
Old 18th November 2017, 04:18 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Can anyone answer this:

laying 2 horses per race (mechanical pics) always 2 separate nags.

First 1 S/R to lose is 70%

Second 1 S/R to lose is 95%

What is the projection for both to lose?


Its not that hard.

Its the sum of the win chances.


30% chance to win of the first one + 5 % chance of the seocnd one to win = 35% chance one of them might win.

So your odds are 75% that both will lose.
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  #3  
Old 18th November 2017, 06:17 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Its not that hard.

Its the sum of the win chances.


30% chance to win of the first one + 5 % chance of the seocnd one to win = 35% chance one of them might win.

So your odds are 75% that both will lose.



?????
Doesn't add up and not that simple.
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  #4  
Old 18th November 2017, 06:35 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Smile

Interested on your take Mark.

Must say though I dont Lay bet and know nothing about it.

But all info is helpful.

Cheers.
__________________
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  #5  
Old 18th November 2017, 06:41 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
?????
Doesn't add up and not that simple.



lol. Your right I got it the wrong way around.

There is a 35% chance as I said of one winning but 100-35 = 65%.

Stupid mistake. Thanks Mark.
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  #6  
Old 18th November 2017, 06:51 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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I'm starting to think it also depends on field size to some extent and maybe even relates to price ranges as well?
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  #7  
Old 18th November 2017, 07:45 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Well obviously it relates to the odds but you gave a very simple set of stats and I gave you the very basic answer based on that.


If you had 2 horses in the race at $100 then your chance of losing is only 2%. So you have a 98% chance of winning.

But if they were both $10 then your chance of losing 20% and your chance of winning is only 80%.

Its pretty easy to work out but useless without more detailed understanding of what you are trying to do and why you want to know it.
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  #8  
Old 19th November 2017, 12:43 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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UB, yes of course, but my mechanical system that I quote as 95% failure rate picks the selection with no reference to the price whatsoever so it could be 1-2 or 100-1, I guess that is why I am perplexed. The other one is , well lets just say the average divi (or expected average divi is around $2.80)
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  #9  
Old 19th November 2017, 10:24 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Near impossible to work out, as UB states the price has to have an effect.
And what if party's 95% lay is also the 70% lay?
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  #10  
Old 19th November 2017, 10:34 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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nah, that can't happen as it would be a "skip" race, so it's always 2 individual nags.
And UB, what I was attempting to do (though I now see is probably impossible) was this:

Possible scenarios
(1) System 1 the nag loses but system 2 the nag wins (what %)

(2)System2 loses but system 1 wins (what %)

(3) Both system horses lose (what %)

Given that system 1 has 70% losing S/R (overall)
and system 2 has 95% losing S/R (overall)
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