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#1




Calling the Maths guys
Can anyone answer this:
laying 2 horses per race (mechanical pics) always 2 separate nags. First 1 S/R to lose is 70% Second 1 S/R to lose is 95% What is the projection for both to lose? 
#2




Quote:
Its not that hard. Its the sum of the win chances. 30% chance to win of the first one + 5 % chance of the seocnd one to win = 35% chance one of them might win. So your odds are 75% that both will lose. 
#3




Quote:
????? Doesn't add up and not that simple. 
#4




Interested on your take Mark.
Must say though I dont Lay bet and know nothing about it. But all info is helpful. Cheers.
__________________
When you live live in clover . when your dead your dead all over. 
#5




Quote:
lol. Your right I got it the wrong way around. There is a 35% chance as I said of one winning but 10035 = 65%. Stupid mistake. Thanks Mark. 
#6




I'm starting to think it also depends on field size to some extent and maybe even relates to price ranges as well?

#7




Well obviously it relates to the odds but you gave a very simple set of stats and I gave you the very basic answer based on that.
If you had 2 horses in the race at $100 then your chance of losing is only 2%. So you have a 98% chance of winning. But if they were both $10 then your chance of losing 20% and your chance of winning is only 80%. Its pretty easy to work out but useless without more detailed understanding of what you are trying to do and why you want to know it. 
#8




UB, yes of course, but my mechanical system that I quote as 95% failure rate picks the selection with no reference to the price whatsoever so it could be 12 or 1001, I guess that is why I am perplexed. The other one is , well lets just say the average divi (or expected average divi is around $2.80)

#9




Near impossible to work out, as UB states the price has to have an effect.
And what if party's 95% lay is also the 70% lay? 
#10




nah, that can't happen as it would be a "skip" race, so it's always 2 individual nags.
And UB, what I was attempting to do (though I now see is probably impossible) was this: Possible scenarios (1) System 1 the nag loses but system 2 the nag wins (what %) (2)System2 loses but system 1 wins (what %) (3) Both system horses lose (what %) Given that system 1 has 70% losing S/R (overall) and system 2 has 95% losing S/R (overall) 
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