Although I mainly like to make my own luck through form study, I always have one system I've worked out going for interest sake.

I used this one over a couple of years and I did very well from it, but I have simplified it because a couple of rules weren't helping it. I like it because it is quick and easy. Resurrected it for last Saturday and it did fine. Win bet only:

1. Sat. Metro Adl. Syd. Brisb. No Hurdles, Maidens or 2yr. old races.
2.Add placings last 4 starts. Total must be no more than 9 [0 or S =10] Ed: I use this rule in a lot of my systems as it guarantees decent form and fitness.
3. Last start must have been 21 days or less
4. Track no worse than dead.
5. Max weight 57kg after any apprentice allowances.
6. Morning line odds no more than $7 from:
http://www.tabform.thewest.com.au/j.../TFFrameset.jsp
or choose your own source.

Saturday 27th. Selections:

Melb. Slow track so no bets.
Syd. R1/1 Mamma Lamia.
Adl. R3/2 Coolgardie [Win $3.60]. R5/4 Mandezvous.
Brisb. R3/2 Umaprience [Win $3.70]. R6/1 Tycoon Rose.

Bet 5 units. Return 7.3 units. A reasonable result.

Naturally better odds could be found as these are just from the above site.

Hi Crash, can you tell me when these morning line prices are first posted for teh Saturday meetings, and also if they closely resemble say "The Australian" newspaper morning line prices ..?

Living overseas now, I am struggling to find an easily accessible morning line price structure. on the Net....this WA tab site is the best one Ive heard of so far..

Anyone got any suggestions for any other online sites for such info?
Cheers
W924

W24
I have tried lots of other pre-post sources and none of them performed as well as the one I nominated. They are usually up on the site by early morning [5am to 8am]. This system can be used anywhere and anytime but there are very few bets outside of Sat.

To everyone,
Don't think either that because I have put this system up it's a dud. I believe in Dr Pangloss's theory that you could 'write a winning system on the footpath outside Ranwick and it wouldn't affect the system odds long term'. If the rules are thought about, this system makes very good sense.

There's a sign on a Las Vegas motel room wall that reads,

"If you wish to try your luck at our tables - you're welcome. If you have a system - STAY RIGHT WHERE YOU ARE - we'll send a limmo 'round to get you."

Not many limmos spotted in the Randwick races public carpark - but always a long line waiting for the bus after the last.

........

but not class....the last of the big three factors - and that is where the system could fall down

Heres another source for morning prices.

https://sports.centrebet.com/

__________________
Cheers.

"but not class....the last of the big three factors - and that is where the system could fall down".

The odds take care of that Chuck. No Class to suit the race? No $7 or less PP.

Don't worry though, systems fall down all the time, including this one I'm sure. I had a few long run of outs with it. But I've also had some wonderful longer runs of profit.

I forgot one rule for this system: If more than one runner found, choose the one with the shorter odds. If same, ignore the race.

This rule 6. Morning line odds no more than $7 from that would handle the class factor in some sense specialy if you use a reliable morning line......i like the 9s horses reminds me of a website that has been up for years but has not been maintained....some great advise on that site.....i saved all the useful webpages for future reference in case the site closes one day

Many Thanks to Crash and Bhagwan for that useful morning line info., and also to Pangloss for that great Vegas sign. LOL

I am sure that there are many sound plans that work over the long term...esp when combined with ratings selections. Finding one , I think, is the easy part. It is the tenacity in riding the losing sequences that is the most difficult thing for most people to master.

One of my "sound" selection methods is experiencing a run of outs in Brisbane ..now 29 as of Saturday..it takes a certain amount of discipline to stick with it. Past experience and stats show me that this is a typical run of outs..doesnt happen all the time..but it can happen..and it could go to 35 or more....... Not everyones' cup of tea, but I prefer this to backing faves and I know that it is profitable in the long term. It is working brilliantly in Sydney and ok in Melbourne...I run three states to spread the risk and incraese the action.. 24 four plans in all with 21 of them being filters of the main three. The percentage profitability rises with each refinement, but the number of bets drops sharply with each refinement. One has to consider Profit on turnover...not just percentage profit on turnover.

Some of my filtered plans may only produce four bets in a year. To make them really earn big money would requires large bets..I dont want the mortgage riding three times a year in order to make my money... Too hard on the heart for me..and those highly-refined plans could still experience a run of outs that may span three or more years...
.
If I was to post those rules up here I also doubt that anyone would bother to use them..plus the prices would not be affected either.. I think that this is even more true today..esp that we now have so many betting options and different win pools throughout the land...

Anyone here not seen "Owning Mahoney" ? true story of a Canadian bank empoyee with a major problem. A "must see" movie for every punter...

Hi Crash you write " forgot one rule for this system: If more than one runner found, choose the one with the shorter odds."


call me stupid, but I would tend to go the other way..i.e. back the longer priced one. Logic tells me that backing the longer of the two will produce a better profit over time. Nothing worse, for me at least, than backing the shorter one and having the longer priced one saluting the judge...

When two horses come up in a selection process..they have about an equal chance of saluting, according to that selection process.

Perhaps another way of eliminating one of the two selected horses might be to look at their winning percentage...eg. sack the selection that has less than a 20% win rate...such horses can be very hard to catch..and often run around at short odds. Tropiqualo in Brisbane surprised a few people and won two weeks ago and then went out short the following week and couldnt repeat it. History shows this horse to have a poor win rate.

Another option, perhaps, is give the horse that won its previous start the nod over the one that hasn't. last start winners are known to have a high winning strike rate when they next front up....esp within the 21 days time frame that you use already in your selection process. I'll say that this might work in Sydney better than in Melbourne. My own selections this year, that also won their previous start, are performing way better in Sydney than in Melbourne.. I dont have stats going back far enough to know if this is normal, or just happening this year so far.. It may straighten uop with the quality Spring carnival horses...

All the very best