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  #41  
Old 30th November 2012, 03:52 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
[QUOTE=Barny]Vortech, I'm glad you're posting. I like a debate on theory. I don't see anything wrong with "backfitting", whatever it's called, massaging filters to suit an outcome ..... because if it's over a long enough period then the correct / decent / profitable filters will eventually be isolated.


If you have a system which shows a profit over 12 years of the following

Horses with TAB 2, 4 and 7
Brisbane races over 1050m
Saturday only
Good track
Field size of 14

Over 12 years showed a profit of 53%POT

Would this continue?

NO, of course it wouldn't. Common sense should prevail. You've sort of shot my argument right in the foot about the profit making filters rising to the top ..... Right Vortech, 'coz of you I'm going to post the mother of all systems right here ..... next post !!
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  #42  
Old 30th November 2012, 04:08 PM
rails run rails run is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Barny
Do me a favour Vortech. Go to one of your 10% POT systems and slooooowly flick through the results in chronological order. If you don't get the heebie jeebies at the runs of outs between winners I'll be Santa at the Propun Xmas shindig. And you're going to be putting real moolah into this too. Ya need balls of steel in this caper. It's easy enough reading bhagwans stats regarding runs of outs, but it's a whole different ball game when there's real cash on the table. It's like standing over a two foot putt when you've got the yips .....
Good point Barny. A way to overcome this anxiety is to run several 10% POT systems from separate banks. This can mean backing more than one system selection in a race... it doesn't matter. If each has a strike rate around 20-25% you'll get enough winners to keep your nuts loose.
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  #43  
Old 30th November 2012, 04:14 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Originally Posted by Vortech
PS: Those putts just might get a little harder with the removal of the long-putter

I've never used the long putter, I've preferred to leave my two footers either short and on the low side of the hole, or having the right hand "go off" and having a four footer back using what the Scots thought was correct for the game !! ..... a normal putter.
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