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  #1  
Old 15th March 2018, 05:12 PM
midas midas is offline
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Default Sad Tale

An example of how chaotic system betting can be..
My system averaging 40% winners and profit at level stakes.
A conservative yet positive staking ??? plan, stopped betting after 4 straight losers and started again after winner. This avoided betting on the inevitable losing runs and did give a positive result. Doubled bank and bet after 680 selections.
THEN
8losers $2.60 15L $4.10 3L $3.10 9L $2.50 2L $3.40 7L $3.20 $3.00 $3.00 3L $3.00 6L $2.70 4L ??????
This is being posted as therapy to stop my depression. Thank goodness I did not post the rules. I may do this for your improvement or avoidance after my hands stop shaking.

MIDAS
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  #2  
Old 15th March 2018, 05:28 PM
midas midas is offline
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Here were my rules:
Good tracks only
Between 6 to 8 starters..Small fields less interference.
No odds on .... not value
Crown Bet fixed odds market usually between 9am to 10am, Fav at least 2 points ahead of second favourite. Some do drift in the market and still win.

Complies with my belief that the less number of rules the more chance of success.

Midas
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  #3  
Old 15th March 2018, 05:37 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by midas
stopped betting after 4 straight losers and started again after winner. This avoided betting on the inevitable losing runs and did give a positive result.
MIDAS


This one rule was the main reason it failed, to unpredictable.
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  #4  
Old 15th March 2018, 05:42 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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You may be missing the longer losing runs, but your also intentionally missing at least 1 winner every now and then.
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  #5  
Old 16th March 2018, 01:43 PM
midas midas is offline
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Thanks for your comments
Sorry error on my rules should be 6 to 10 starters..I was thinking 6 to 8 might have been better.

Even with a strike rate of 40% fairly long losing streaks do come along.
Example: 10 losers then winner at $2.70. I have avoided backing 6 losers and only missed a $2.70 winner. Over the period of my results this tactic added to my profit.
With higher average price etc. etc,. this may not be so good.

Midas
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  #6  
Old 17th March 2018, 09:07 AM
enjay enjay is offline
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Welcome Midas.

No odds on .... not value
Crown Bet fixed odds market usually between 9am to 10am, Fav at least 2 points ahead of second favourite. Some do drift in the market and still win.
.
By 2 points, I assume you mean that if fav. is $2.80, second fav. has to be $4.80 or more to be a selection.
Thanks in advance.

enjay
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  #7  
Old 17th March 2018, 09:45 AM
midas midas is offline
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Enjay

Yes that is correct re 2 points ahead of second fav..

Selections made on prices between 9/10 am excluding odds on.
Yes things change later in the day ...some drift to "good" prices and win ..some shorten to odds on and win.
If they actually shorten to odds on I was assuming that they would still be a good bet...Money talks sometimes.
If they drifted I hoped they had the form to win as shown by the early market and which they can do at good prices.

But like all selection methods beware of the losing runs. I believe that a proven winning percentage {like favs. +/- 30%**** will survive so losing streaks must be followed by winning streaks. So called luck comes in cycles. If we could only pick them!!!!

Midas
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  #8  
Old 17th March 2018, 10:18 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by midas
An example of how chaotic system betting can be..

MIDAS


My sad tale for the last 3 days. Each day, for the last 3 days, I have been up over 1K in profit across my systems. The results at the end of the day for those days were +4.03, -405.61, +222.24

If I had stopped at 1K profit for the day I would be up 3K instead of down $-179.34

The swings and roundabouts with system betting can have you excited one minute and crying the next. I find looking at the 28 running total (4 weeks) which is close to a month always makes me feel better as its generally showing a very nice profit. Its the only way I can handle the short term swings in the bank balance.
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  #9  
Old 19th April 2018, 03:58 PM
midas midas is offline
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Hi

My 1st point is not to follow my rules as given...probably needs some tuning if possible or strong backbone to survive the losing runs.

Yes I did get carried away with my long term results and staking plan was not conservative enough. Problem... too conservative not much profit ....too rash , profit with high risk which will get you in the end.

I am 81 and my first system was at age 13........Sat. Sydney Meetings...any horse that has won in the last 7 days.

I have dabbled with systems over the years but probably have not greatly improved.

May I give my congratulations to any who have devised a mechanical system, with level stakes profit and survivable losing runs over a long period of time. I am still trying for the golden chalice but one day..........

Good Luck midas
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  #10  
Old 20th April 2018, 10:44 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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With you there Midas.

My guess would be 0.01% have a long term winning system.

I,m around the same Age as you.

The elusive chase keeps the Brain Cells ticking over though.

Cheers.
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