Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > RaceCensus
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 1st July 2013, 03:54 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,362
Default Breeding, Training, Punting.

It's time to pass on my knowledge that has been acquired over the years.
My grandfather was a very successful racehorse and greyhound trainer in Ireland. He had winners at Limerick, and all surrounding courses.
He once picked the card at a racecourse just by looking at the parade ring and became notorius for winning a small fortune in those days.

Personally, I have owned Chrome Prince sired by Coal King which won numerous picnic races. Hence the forum username.

I have very firm opinions about breeding and training, horse care and parade ring punting. I don't profess to be an authority, but what
i do share has stood the test of time. In fact it has stood for over 100 years.
Punters, breeders, trainers may gain something from my insights, I'm sure there will be professionals who disagree, but from my work with horses, these methods are so successful, they cannot be ignored.

I'll try and post a continuing series in parts.

The breeding industry is going to implode if prices keep soaring for greatly bred duds. Green Monkey in USA was famously sold for U.S. 16 million and retired a maiden. He earned $10,440 in his career and couldn't win a maiden.
His sire was Forestry and Grand sire was the well hailed Storm Cat by Northern Dancer. Along the dam line was some very impressive black type winners including Secretariat.
All professionals thought this horse would be the next champion and champion sire. It is a fact that this $16 million dollar horse did not possess the heart and lungs of his lineage. He looked super in the parade ring as he inherited great conformation and strong profile resemblances to his heritage.

His stud fee of course crashed to a staggeringly poor $5,000USD.
Breeders and owners are getting totally carried away with sire / dam immediate progeny. This used to be the focus and was certainly the most successful way to go for investment to return. It's obvious that overall this is the most successful method, but now is not the most profitable.

Considering the Green Monkey's breeding and heritage, at $5,000USD stud fee, this was the bargain of the century. Granted he isn't going to pass on any speed directly, and may pass on his poor performance, but breeding horses is far more complicated than looking at the sire and dam.

As an example, Green Monkey has sired Kinz Funky Monkey for $5,000 stud fee. 4 starts for 2 placings and 2 wins including the $73,600 Manhattan Beach Stakes, so this dud now has sired a stakes winner.
Other winners include Chongo Verdi, Your Lovely, and Monkey Wench, including some very good placings from other progeny.

Clearly these horses have inherited a mix of the lineage, not a direct result of the sire. That's the point. As an owner, trainer or breeder, there are some very inexpensive sires that were not so successful on the track and yet have outstanding pedigree. These are value sires.

Training.
Unfortunately these days due to costs, horses are only trained to the extent of breaking in and trackwork. They require far more work than what is put in.
I believe in natural horsemanship, getting the horse to overcome it's natural instinct of fear, rather than breaking it's will.
Notorious barrier rogues consistently become barrier rogues, they apply rogue hoods, twist the horse's ear, use a lunge whip, ropes and brute force from the attendants. This is not the fault of the attendants, they do an amazing job in ensuring horse and jockey safety, it is partly the breaker and partly the trainer.
These "rogues" will always be rogues, because their inherent fear is reinforced each time they are loaded and always eventually end up with the horse "going off" and getting cast in the barriers at one time or another.
This sets off a chain reaction, amongst others who might be nervous but comfortable. This domino effect, time wasted, and risk of injury could easily be overcome by some simple natural horse techniques. Most people think the horse is a rogue or doesn't want to race, nothing could be further from the truth, the plain fact is, the horse is extremely frightened. Overcoming this fear is simply a case of instilling confidence patiently. A little ground work can save a horse from injury, and tardy starts.

You can tell a suited racing pattern when you turnout a group of horses and watch them run. There will always be the same leaders, the same off pacers, the same backmarkers, if they run long enough.
On this topic, it saddens me greatly to see the way horses are treated by trainers these days. They are locked up in stables, feed at intervals, taken out for trackwork and excercise and let out on a Sunday afternoon for a short graze. This might sound idyllic, but it's completely un natural.
This shortcut method of training creates many unhappy horses with digestive problems, and vitamin D defficiency.

Horses are pack and graze animals, they need to run free and graze. They also need to be "naked" in the spring / summer to absord natural vitamin D.
Vitamin D supplements do not do the same job as natural vitamin D.
Feeding horses in a stable at various times of the day with boosted nutrients and not allowing them to graze on juicy green pastures, is completely un natural. The old hay bale does not supply the range of nutrients a horse needs. Horses put on bulk in the pasture and trainers do not want to put in the work to keep the bulk of. They'd rather take short cuts to ensure a fit and trim horse. Stables have a purpose, they provide shelter, warmth and safety. That is all they should be used for, and the horse should be free to come and go.

Horses need to be trained naturally, the more effort put in and basic work will build a stronger and healthier horse. It also builds muscle and bone strength. That is why we have so many break downs, shattered bones, popped knees, bowed tendons etc. The amount of preparation put in to today's thoroughbred prior to fast work and racing, is not sufficient to the horse's physical needs. You cannot fast track a horse, you need to build confidence, strength, maturity and patience.

Horses are never nasty.
Horses are either frightened, injured or asserting leadership.
A horse has to be naturally taught that man is the leader, taught with kindness, but firmness.

Apart from breeding, when selecting a horse to own, breed or race:
One should check firstly for heat around all joints, muscles and tendons.
Reject any horse that has bandages, or lumps, bumps or hard nodules in the bones, joints, tendons.
Horses should have a clear sharp eye (almost sparkling), glossy coat and very straight back. The fetlock should not droop but be at a straight angle, with the hoof planting flat on the ground. The toe and heel should hit the ground almost in unison.
A sprinter should be of stocky build with a short back.
A stayer should be of slender build with a long back.
However, one of the most important factors is stride length combined with speed of course.
You can't have a short stride horse that is a black type winner!
You can have a long stride horse that doesn't have speed.
What becomes a champion is a horse with a long stride, with good conformation and speed.

In the parade ring, look at the horses career records.
Look at the eye, the coat, and the stride.
Muscle development and fetlocks.
Of course with unraced horses in the parade ring, check the odds, but concentrate on the eyes, coat and finally stride.

The list of long striding champions is evident:
Frankel
Octagonal
Makybe Diva
Super Impose
Kingston Town
Phar Lap
Secretariat
and of course Black Caviar.

Just a short list.
Reason being the horse takes less strides per 100m and therefore has more in reserve in the heart, lungs and muscles.
The same applies with Greyhounds, though it is a lot harder to detect without slow motion or digital measurement.

Here is a video on the stride of The Green Monkey, very short and proppy:

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/RN7ZU5AN-0U" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Kinz Funky Monkey has nearly double the stride length.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 3rd July 2013, 08:40 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,037
Default

Thanks for the thread CP. Very interesting although I cannot tell the difference between the stride of Kinz Funky Monkey and The Green Monkey, but that's just me, hopeless at that sort of thing (or punting in general). But very nice post.
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 5th July 2013, 03:23 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,362
Default

TO,
It takes a lot of practice to spot the difference.
For example there are a couple of ways to look at stride length, but I must emphasize firstly, that not all good striders have the right engine behind them.
Sometimes they are too slow and basically plodders.

When being paraded, look at the reach of the front legs, the bobbing of the head as the horse takes it's stride. Is the horse taking lots of little steps with the head rapidly bobbing in short sequence.
Or is the horse taking long strides and reaching with the head.

Here's Black Caviar's half-brother.
http://youtu.be/U3xpBvzRMdw

You'll note a couple of things here.
The horse is leading the handler, not vice versa
The handler is merely steering.
The action of the front legs is fluid with long slow strides covering a lot of ground with each stride, so much so, they had to remove the other horse from the ring, as he was catching up!
Whether or not he also has the speed is another issue, but the basics are there including the breeding.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 10th July 2013, 05:14 PM
jose jose is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: brisbane
Posts: 419
Default

Walks like he is shinny or feeling something in his legs to my eye CP.
You haven't got a video of the other Monkey by chance so we can compare perhaps?
__________________
Jose'.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 10th July 2013, 11:56 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,362
Default

Sorry I don't have any footage of Kinz Funky Monkey parading
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 14th July 2013, 06:11 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,362
Default Breeding Bargains

I have long had an unorthodox view on value breeding.
It seems that the masses are obsessed with the leading sires and broodmares, and while statistically speaking, this is the proven best chance of landing a top racehorse, financially, it is a losing proposition.
The chances of making a profit are outweighed by the overwhelming costs.

I grew up in an era where Sir Tristram was the boom sire, an era where it seemed all Group races had some connection to Sir Tristram, and you couldn't get near him to breed without options in a gold mine.

His only direct son standing at stud is the famous Zabeel @ $100,000 service fee.
And while Zabeel has proven to be a gun sire, this is his only son standing out of all the thousands of colts he sired.
Notably Dr Grace and Kaapstad did stand at stud, but did not become leading sires.

Sir Tristram has only five grandsons standing at stud:
SAVABEEL @ NZD$55,000
RESET @ $16,500
OVER @ $4,400
SUFFICIENT @ NZD$4,000
MCFLIRT @ $3,300

Savabeel, Reset and Sufficient being by Zabeel.

However, the point I'm getting to is that thinking back on Sir Tristram's stud fee and Zabeel's $100,000 fee, surely Sufficient is at a bargain basement price at $4,000. The fact that he has Sir Tristram and Zabeel in his bloodlines and the cheap as chips price, means one could send broodmares 25 times to this sire for the price of one service to Zabeel.
Here's some other opinions of him...

Excellent yearling sales series at Karaka 2013 where his first-crop yearlings averaged $45,000 in the Select Session with a sale topper of $80,000 and an overall sales average of $23,500.

His progeny were purchased at Karaka by some very good judges such as Robert Smerdon, Mike Moroney, Alwyn Tweedie; Paul O'Sullivan; Katrina Alexander and Dick Bothwell.

The Sufficient x Brindillemousse filly was purchased by Robert Smerdon of Aquanita Racing for $80,000.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 15th July 2013, 06:09 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,362
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Thanks for the thread CP. Very interesting although I cannot tell the difference between the stride of Kinz Funky Monkey and The Green Monkey, but that's just me, hopeless at that sort of thing (or punting in general). But very nice post.


The Ocho,
There are many factors to stride, but here's some pointers.

The front legs should be reaching from the shoulder and should be long in stride.
The lead should come from the shoulder and not from the knees.
The knees should only bend to accomodate the lead from the shoulder, they should not be where the stride comes from.

The hind legs should almost fill the spaces the front legs leave behind, they should not drag or hit the ground just underneath the belly.

The gait should be fluid in action and the best way to see this is at a slow lope or canter, watching the head and neck action can be a good indicator.

The shoulders should be at a 45 degree angle or more to the neck and you should be able to see a triangle from the start of the neck to the withers, down the shoulder and back up to the neck.

An indication of heart size is the chest cavity.
From the top of the withers straight down to the elbow should be very deep.
The deeper the better, providing all other factors are in proportion.

I'm at a loss to see how some of these buyers assess a horse in the short time in the parade ring at the sales. It takes me a good 20 minutes to fully assess a horse and certainly would need to be right up close. Perhaps the big spenders get private viewing time

10 miniutes on overall conformation and 10 minutes hands on.

The hind legs should also be wider than the front legs.
Thinkk of how a cheetah runs, with it's rear legs either side of the front legs, this is how it gets it's speed, by the spring and leverage action, only we don't want a horse to overreach.

Horses that actually overreach and clip their own front heels do not have ideal conformation. The hind legs should be filling the spaces left by the front legs, only wider, not the same spaces.

This information does not only apply to buying and breeding, it can be a huge guide to a horse's potential, especially with regard to lightly raced horses, and first starters.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 15th July 2013, 06:55 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,362
Default

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/ecPdElGaug4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Watch this video, it points to some very important differences.

Pause the video at Conformation Shot #1....
Romi the first horse, is too stocky.
He has a beautiful big depth of chest cavity and huge chest muscles, but his leg aren't long enough in proportion for his body.
He has a lovely back, but his hind muscles are lacking on his hips.
It seems he is underdeveloped at the rear for his strong muscular front.
Therefore he is going to be short striding.
The angle of his shoulder is fine, but there should be more definition.

Play video...

You'll notice his hind legs never go anywhere near filling the spots his front legs leave. He leads with his front knees and not with his shoulder, because although he has a good shoulder and chest, his hind legs lack power and leverage.

Pause the video at Conformation Shot #1 again....
Deco has good conformation.
His head is shorter.
His neck has perfect proportion and the angle is great.
He has good shoulder muscle and his hip muscles are in proportion (not lacking).
The chest cavity is not as deep as Romi, but he has plenty of muscle evenly distributed.

Play video...

He has a beautifully smooth gait and when he canters into the jump, his legs stretch from the shoulder and his hind legs stretch to almost fill the spaces the front legs left behind. He is not perfect, but he is a good example.
He has a very good reach on jumping and his head does not have to jerk to maintain balance on landing. He is a well conformed, well balanced horse.

Pause the video at Conformation Shot #2

Hans is similar to the first horse Romi, only better around the rear hip area.
However, poor Hans is unbalanced. His head is a little too long. His chest cavity is very good and deep, but again his withers are too high, and this is the pivot point or centre of gravity for a horse. There's no way he is going to be able to maintain a fluid gate and will find it hard at a canter or gallop being unbalanced. He also has a weak back, it slopes down from his rump to his withers at a bad angle. although he is better in the hind quarters and hips than Romi, he is still not evenly distributed in muscle development.
This along with his head size and withers and back problem means he is going to have to throw his head to maintain balance when jumping.

Play video and pause at each still shot.

You'll notice he has a very short stride and throws his head on landing to maintain balance.

Still shot no. 1
This is Romi the first horse.
His knees are up to his cheeks and his hind legs are way behind him.
He is not jumping from the hind legs, he is springing off them and reaching with his front legs.

Still shot no. 2
This is Deco the second horse.
Look at the angle of the hind legs, he is using a lot of power from the hind legs, they are not dragging behind, they are almost underneath him. His front knees are not up near his cheeks, he is tucking his front legs under himself and stretching out nicely with his neck.

Still shot no. 3
This is unbalanced Hans
Look at the angle of the hind legs, he is using a lot of power from the hind legs, they are not dragging behind, they are almost underneath him. His front knees are not up near his cheeks, but he is not tucking his front legs under himself and he is stretching upwards with his head and neck. He seems to be using ALL his rear and none of his front. What you don't see are the next few frames where he lands all unbalanced and throws his head to maintain balance.

Deco is 8/10 for mine and stands the best chance of becoming a good racehorse, IF he has the speed.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 16th July 2013, 05:58 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,362
Post Cheap Winners

Geelong
Race 2 - Grc Function/Event Centre Mdn - 1900m
Glenaroua
Nadeem x Toccare (GB) (Machiavellian (USA) )
Purchased for $8,000
Grandsire Redoute's Choice
Great Grandsire Danehill
Great Great Grandsire on Dam side Canny Lad

BARGAIN!

Port Macquarie
Race 3 - Hans Smallgoods Mdn Plate - 1500m
Lopresti
Ad Valorem (USA) x Glycks (Langfuhr (CAN) )
Passed In $ 4,000 / Reserve $ 5,000
Sire side: Danzig, Northern Dancer
Dam side: Danzig, Northern Dancer

BARGAIN

Townsville
Race 4 - Cup Calcutta Tickets Hcp - 1000m
He's A Ladies Man
All Bar One x Favorite Starlet (Favorite Trick (USA) )
Purchased for $5,000
On the Sire side Stormcat, Stormbird lineage
On the Dam side Marauding, Sir Tristram.

BARGAIN!

These horses, although mainly winning maidens, beat home some horses costing six figures.
You never know what genes will filter through as long as the structure is in place. All horses had links to leading sires, without being sired by leading sires.
This is where the value is, considering some six and seven figure horses either never make it to the track or never win a race.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 398,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 29/02/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 16th July 2013, 06:52 PM
jose jose is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: brisbane
Posts: 419
Thumbs up

Top stuff CP.
__________________
Jose'.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 11:00 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655