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  #1  
Old 28th June 2018, 12:48 PM
thorns thorns is online now
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Default Shotgun approach

Anyone have any ideas or methods they use when they are staking multiple runners a race to win? So far I have:

Dutch the sections
Lay the other runners
stake percent of bank on each runner
bet each runner to return % of bank

The method I have been testing can sometimes be selecting 80-90% of the field as contenders. So far simply level stakes on the them at BFSP after commission has shown a tidy return. However, the ups and down is hard to stomach at times as it relies on longer priced winners to really make its profit. Yesterday for instance it picked 40 out of 41 races, only missing out on the Moonee race where the $75 pop saluted. Was a pretty break even kind of day until the run of the last ten races or so took it from showing a 3 unit profit for the day up to 65 units for the day thanks to a string of donkeys winning.

shotgun_approach

Its a catch 22 it seems, you can dutch them and make small profits on most races, but hit 2-3 outs on the day and you get zero profit, or level stakes where for instance today where you hit the run on rougher horses saluting making a massive day, but if favorites salute all day it will loose a large chunk of profits. Seems to withstand losing races a bit better as well.

Does anyone have any ideas on something in between the two extremes?
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  #2  
Old 28th June 2018, 01:02 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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I just select the longer priced horses (In my case $5.50 - $21) to win.

Favs lose beween 67 % and 72 % so betting the longer priced makes sense to me.

Mind you when Favs salute all day I lose heaps but as long as my bank is sufficent I can ride out these periods and eventuall turn these losses around.

I always remember the wise words of Malcolm K

"A winning run is always followed by a losing run and vice versa"

Sufficent funds and smart staking is required but thats a given.

Cheers.
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  #3  
Old 28th June 2018, 02:13 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Have you tried charting and looking at the statistics for those 4 approaches you mentioned plus level stakes. You probably won't be able to arrive at a decision until you've compared all 5.

Personally i'd want to minimize the drawdowns whilst maximizing the returns and would lean towards whatever method best achieves that - but you wont know without testing.
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  #4  
Old 28th June 2018, 02:25 PM
thorns thorns is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Have you tried charting and looking at the statistics for those 4 approaches you mentioned plus level stakes. You probably won't be able to arrive at a decision until you've compared all 5.

Personally i'd want to minimize the drawdowns whilst maximizing the returns and would lean towards whatever method best achieves that - but you wont know without testing.


Yes I am trying to start going through that, its a long process though, so slowly chipping away and hoping I can get some other ideas to test at the same time.

I think the worst draw down at the moment in testing has been around 40 units at level stakes, which I know for a fact I could not handle once a decent amount was on the line. It happened right after a string of big winners, but if you had started off at that point it would be a different story, interesting there were no wipe out races during that period, however lots of favs, or $6 winners when I have picked 8 horses that race for example. That's where the dutch them all/lay other runners comes in handy as draw downs are small, but take a lot longer to recover from.
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  #5  
Old 28th June 2018, 02:26 PM
thorns thorns is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
I just select the longer priced horses (In my case $5.50 - $21) to win.

Favs lose beween 67 % and 72 % so betting the longer priced makes sense to me.

Mind you when Favs salute all day I lose heaps but as long as my bank is sufficent I can ride out these periods and eventuall turn these losses around.

I always remember the wise words of Malcolm K

"A winning run is always followed by a losing run and vice versa"

Sufficent funds and smart staking is required but thats a given.

Cheers.


Yes that is an angle I am looking at as well, leaving favs out, or break even at best.
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  #6  
Old 28th June 2018, 04:40 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Have you looked at the races you are losing on and why ? For example, number of runners, odds spread, location, barriers of winners(losers), condition of track, race number, time of day or night, prize money, etc.

Just eliminate the losing races which is easier said then done.
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  #7  
Old 28th June 2018, 08:10 PM
Vortech
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
I just select the longer priced horses (In my case $5.50 - $21) to win.

Favs lose beween 67 % and 72 % so betting the longer priced makes sense to me.


Cheers.


You just need to know which Favourites to back and which to lay to make money
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  #8  
Old 1st July 2018, 10:22 AM
thorns thorns is online now
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Went level stakes yesterday, lets just say Liapari is my favorite horse at the moment.


Big Day!
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  #9  
Old 1st July 2018, 06:22 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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I remember a story about a bloke in the UK who bet every horse in the field but only certain types of handicaps and where the fav was at good odds can't remember the criteria but something like 4-1. Was supposed to work overall, because of the spattering of big priced winners.

An example say yesterday MR-4-16 $75 (BFSP) so $16 out $75 in.

Last edited by partypooper : 1st July 2018 at 06:27 PM.
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  #10  
Old 14th July 2018, 08:00 AM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
I remember a story about a bloke in the UK who bet every horse in the field but only certain types of handicaps and where the fav was at good odds can't remember the criteria but something like 4-1. Was supposed to work overall, because of the spattering of big priced winners.


I have a program that does that automatically, but unfortunately it's written in Assembly Language, runs in DOS on 486 old PC. Info back then came from the teletext days.
But the calculations says it can be done, not ALL runners in the field. You have to leave out at least the fav. 15 horse race, depending on the stake amount chosen, or the other way round how much to make, which determines the stake amount, it calculates it.
The math does not change, the technology to do the math does.
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