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  #11  
Old 20th May 2017, 08:44 AM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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At provisional and country meetings, I find first start favourites under 3 win over 50% and return a positive POT. First start favourites under 2 hits at over 80% winners and again a positive POT.
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  #12  
Old 4th July 2017, 08:56 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
At provisional and country meetings, I find first start favourites under 3 win over 50% and return a positive POT. First start favourites under 2 hits at over 80% winners and again a positive POT.


This might help using TAB prices:
Favourite and under $3.00 Provincial and Country
Selections 5,166
Win Strike Rate 42.78%
Place Strike Rate 70.65%
Win Loss -8.65%
Place Loss -6.59%

Favourite and under $2.00 Provincial and Country
Selections 1,509
Win Strike Rate 53.61%
Place Strike Rate 79.72%
Win Loss -10.99%
Place Loss -4.79%
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  #13  
Old 4th July 2017, 10:29 AM
Every Topic Every Topic is offline
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I ran this for last year on the basis that it is provincial and country meets, the fave is under $3.00, its the horses first start and its a maiden race.

Best tote
Win SR 42% POT -5.2%
P SR 70.7% POT 2.87%

and its slightly worse for under $2.

I will add, however, that it is not uncommon in those kinds of races to have two close faves and that might be distorting these numbers.
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