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  #1  
Old 14th March 2013, 04:44 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Default For Bernie

Bernie, as you know I'm very generous when it comes to giving advice

My suggestion to you, especially given that you've been following the nags for 45 years (as you said), is to get yourself a database. I've no doubt of two things here ..... 1) Those who have purchased a database will have become more conservative / selective with their punting as a result of them finding out what works and what doesn't, and become far more disciplined because they're aware of the run of outs that's a normal part of racing. 2) Get far more enjoyment out of this pursuit as they've got an endless supply of filters to combine and test.

The data base I've got Bernie is RaceCensus and I use it to find 1) "horses to follow". I input data that will give me a list of promising "horses to follow", and with this database you can then do a sreach on the individual horses that are produced in the list and it gives you their entire career (provided it's within the date range of the database). For example Bernie I input a couple of filters that select a lightly raced horse placed in a fairly high grade Metro race, indicating that the trainer may have seen something. The results show up as a slight POT (for the race they're entered for) but the hidden value is that it gives me a list of horses to follow (back tested), a stable if you like, and I follow these for a certain number of starts. I also have a similar system for getting a list of horses to follow which includes again a lightly raced horse with no obvious form going up in distance. This system also shows a small POT, but again it gives me a list of horses to follow. You could also look at how horses who won their first start fared for their next 10 runs !!, the options are limitless and logic can be applied.

Then there's the systems you can develop. My best system is one I developed, geez, some 20 years ago, and it still works today. I've only recently started punting it with every selection because in the past I just didn't have the time to update my records manually. I've also developed a couple of other good systems, and logical ones too. Also I've got another method that I'm currently learning, and can test, so there's a vast amount of data to be sorted, and without the database I just wouldn't be in a position to do this.

Also there's myths you can bust.

I also believe you can actually "see" the trends in racing coming out by breaking up your testing into different periods. I especially think someone like you Bernie would have more to gain from a database than someone who hasn't had the experince in racing that you've had, because you would have a feel for what works and what doesn't. You'll also benefit by not having to rely on what's posted on here as to whether a system is successful or not. For $405.00 you get RaceCensus database and for confirmation on it's worthiness I'm sure those on here who have the database will be only to happy to share their experiences.

Last edited by Barny : 14th March 2013 at 04:47 PM.
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  #2  
Old 14th March 2013, 05:26 PM
bernie bernie is offline
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Barny, personally I don't believe a database will make any difference to finding a winning system. I'm not interested in becoming more conservative because I don't gamble. I don't want to be more selective for the same reason.

All I've asked of you is to present a long term winning system that produces a POT preferably better than bank interest rates. Simple really.

No one has ever proven to me that it is possible to win at horse racing in spite of many saying so. I'm not going to sell the system, I'm not going to pass it on, and I'm not going to use it, so why will no one prove there is such a thing as a winning system? I'm not talking about laying here because it doesn't interest me. Some maybe winning consistently at laying and I'll accept that.

Now Barny, will you do me the honour and prove it to me please?
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  #3  
Old 14th March 2013, 05:41 PM
Barny Barny is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bernie
so why will no one prove there is such a thing as a winning system?

Equally you cannot prove that there isn't such a thing as a winning system Bernie.

You've got your money in the bank, a guaranteed way of losing purchasing power each and every day Bernie, and it's backed by fiat currency, arguably backed by nothing !! If I put up a winning system, you will tell me that says nothing about the future, and you'd be right. There's no way that someone like you would be prepared to risk anything, yet you need to in order to make money. The stockmarket has risks, yet some would suggest (incl Buffett) that not investing in the stockmarket is the biggest risk of all.

Geez, I'd hate to think of how much you've lost on the punt over 45 years for you to be the way you are now.
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  #4  
Old 14th March 2013, 09:35 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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To be honest there is only one winning system long term, being a bookie, they are the only real long term winners, you have the option of using betfair to do this with out the costs associated with a track side bookie.

Every other professional does not have a standard long term profitable system, they often make changes to the way they do things to stay ahead, there are those that have a feel for what they are doing and this is something that can't be just put down on paper, such as trading, this has to be learned you would need to follow a trader around for some time to get the feel for what they do and as it has been said on this site that could be a limited market in the future as far as Oz racing is concerned.

If you want to start to be a professional with winning ways you have to learn to think like one.
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  #5  
Old 14th March 2013, 10:42 PM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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Shaun wrote,
Quote:
a feel for what they are doing and this is something that can't be just put down on paper,


Yes....
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  #6  
Old 15th March 2013, 08:50 AM
Vortech
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Shaun - next thing your say is Santa isn't real either!

You need to isolate the difference between being a professional punter and one that makes small gains.

To dismiss the idea that systems can not make profit long-term and you can only making it being a bookie needs more evidence. You have many punters on here making profit long-term without the use of Betfair.
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  #7  
Old 15th March 2013, 08:58 AM
Barny Barny is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
To be honest there is only one winning system long term, being a bookie, they are the only real long term winners,

Try telling that to the many bookies who were sent packing by greyhound punters in the late 70's early 80's Shaun. I'll try and dig up an interview Keigh Hillier did with three big time bookies, two of which weren't doing any good at all. I think your comments are innacurate.
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  #8  
Old 15th March 2013, 09:17 AM
Moderator 3 Moderator 3 is offline
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We have received some TOUs.

If you wish to make a post about databases, go ahead. But please do not direct your thread title and your post to one member only.

This thread has now been closed.

Moderator.
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