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  #31  
Old 9th August 2020, 12:06 PM
Gritz Gritz is offline
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Simple System is having a bad run at he moment. Have delved into the reason and have found one factor that stands out.
Which is a lot higher % of Pre-post favs have been winning since the bad run started. Prior to July the win % for year 2020
Was 24% —50 wins from 206 starters. From the end of June it has climbed to 34%—18 wins from 53 starters.
Overall win % this year of pre-post favs 26% Long term average is 31% (more than 5 years) This is only for metro Melbourne
Saturdays only.

Lately my acuity has diminished and my data entry accuracy has suffered. Three times this year I have entered
prices wrong. On Saturday race 7, I entered 95 instead of 9.5 for Crimson Ace which when sorted by price gave it 12th prepost
instead of 5th prepost this in turn made all prepost figures wrong after 4th prepost so the number combinations did not work.
I only noticed it when I went to back it as Betfair came up as 12/1. Too late to do anything about it.

This losing run would be a real test for most, they would think about chucking in the towel or would have already. I said on my
information sheet that one aspect of betting is “application of systems” So I will continue until the system reaches it’s pre-determined
loss amount which is 300.00. Hopefully it will return to its former pattern before that happens.
Still in front by $ 233 so 533 in hand before calling it quits. How many here are in in profit after 680 bets?

Gritz
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  #32  
Old 9th August 2020, 12:16 PM
shiddle shiddle is offline
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Hi Gritz,
Thanks for the explanation. I understand only to well about runs of outs but having your stats behind it makes me feel better. I also will be continuing with your selections and waiting for it to revert back to its winning ways.
Thank you again for providing the selections.
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  #33  
Old 10th August 2020, 09:06 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gritz
Simple System is having a bad run at he moment. Have delved into the reason and have found one factor that stands out.
Which is a lot higher % of Pre-post favs have been winning since the bad run started. Prior to July the win % for year 2020
Was 24% —50 wins from 206 starters. From the end of June it has climbed to 34%—18 wins from 53 starters.
Overall win % this year of pre-post favs 26% Long term average is 31% (more than 5 years) This is only for metro Melbourne
Saturdays only.

Lately my acuity has diminished and my data entry accuracy has suffered. Three times this year I have entered
prices wrong. On Saturday race 7, I entered 95 instead of 9.5 for Crimson Ace which when sorted by price gave it 12th prepost
instead of 5th prepost this in turn made all prepost figures wrong after 4th prepost so the number combinations did not work.
I only noticed it when I went to back it as Betfair came up as 12/1. Too late to do anything about it.

This losing run would be a real test for most, they would think about chucking in the towel or would have already. I said on my
information sheet that one aspect of betting is “application of systems” So I will continue until the system reaches it’s pre-determined
loss amount which is 300.00. Hopefully it will return to its former pattern before that happens.
Still in front by $ 233 so 533 in hand before calling it quits. How many here are in in profit after 680 bets?

Gritz



Gritz,

Its a tough time this year with covid throwing off the markets so good work sticking it out.

BTW this year I have had 81974 bets so your only slightly behind me with 680 bets
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  #34  
Old 11th August 2020, 11:13 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Location: Qld
Posts: 1,418
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No idea how many bets I've had this year. Over 1300 on Saturday alone, and that's just our horses.
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  #35  
Old 12th August 2020, 02:08 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Hi Gritz,

I've got about 12 months data in my spreadsheet and had developed a lay system for the lowest odds pre-post runner (1st fav pre post). It had been doing wonderfully up until about a month ago where it fell off a cliff. I'm still tracking the system (i never started betting it) but just find it interesting PP had been doing so bad before that in terms of the lowest priced horse and has had a big turn lately.

I'll be interested to see if this continues to play out that way or reverts back to being a good lay proposition.
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  #36  
Old 12th August 2020, 03:23 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Hi Gritz,

I've got about 12 months data in my spreadsheet and had developed a lay system for the lowest odds pre-post runner (1st fav pre post). It had been doing wonderfully up until about a month ago where it fell off a cliff. I'm still tracking the system (i never started betting it) but just find it interesting PP had been doing so bad before that in terms of the lowest priced horse and has had a big turn lately.

I'll be interested to see if this continues to play out that way or reverts back to being a good lay proposition.


be careful of any results in the period between February - July. The markets didn't behave as per normal.
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  #37  
Old 13th August 2020, 08:44 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,418
Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
be careful of any results in the period between February - July. The markets didn't behave as per normal.


Why do you say that UB?. My records/results show business as usual.
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  #38  
Old 13th August 2020, 02:50 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Why do you say that UB?. My records/results show business as usual.


Mark I wouldn't expect your method to be any different.Your method just needs enough liquidity in the market and you read the market from there.

It is more around form based systems. There are a lot more horses coming off spells, there was for each country a period of about 2-3 weeks when they restarted racing where the average odds of winners was significantly higher.

There was also a lot of different money coming into the markets which normally went on US sports like NBA, Tennis, etc as racing was the only thing available for a while (unless you include betting on the weather).

Its just not a period I would base any form factors or price movement factors on if you were back testing and that was your only data.
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