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  #1  
Old 16th July 2004, 12:12 PM
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A couple of rules worth considering to select a horse could include:

1) A fairly high Win S/R. Sort of proves that the horse has ability, is placed fairly well and importantly that trainer likes to win with it.

2) A win this time in. Wait 'til the horse has shown a return to form.

3) A minimum number of wins and runs. No use backing a horse that has 2 from 2 is it? It needs some history.

Does anyone else follow S/R?
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  #2  
Old 16th July 2004, 01:17 PM
davez davez is offline
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I do review win strike rates of all my bets, however I do not let a low rate put me off as I find that once I have decided to back them they are just as likely to win with a 50% rate as they are with a 7% rate - go figure!
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  #3  
Old 18th July 2004, 09:57 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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I have found the 50%+ for the place a more valuable tool to use rather than win percentages.
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  #4  
Old 18th July 2004, 11:13 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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BGHWAN.Would you consider RANKED PLACE STRIKE RATE superior to ACTUAL WIN % or RANKED WIN STRIKE RATE.??
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  #5  
Old 18th July 2004, 09:14 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Darkydog,
The ranking position appears to be in line to its final price ,in other words the higher its position ,the less higher priced divs obtained ,therefore missing some of the bigger divs.

If you only targeted say the Top position only .
The SR is there but the value is seldom there.

Theres nothing intrinsicly wrong with place ranking ,majority of winners come from the top 6 rankings.

All I am saying is that if you introduce a rule of 20%+ Win SR,you will miss many bigger paying divs,its like shifting sands with win percentages,it works fine some months & terrible in other months,its the better divs we need to make the average system show a profit & these generally come from high placed horses who have shown promise but just missed out on a number of occasions from winning,therefor their win % is low but place % high, which could be read as a consistant horse who is generally got its Hoof on the till ,its only a matter of some luck in the running for it to show its snout on the winning line.

I have found this simple rule of 50%+Plce & ignore Win% has made a number of systems which were showing a loss ,now showing much stronger figures than its original format.


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  #6  
Old 18th July 2004, 09:58 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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To answer your question Darkydog .
The stats show that the Plc% ranking is superior to Win ranking.

If you ever have the chance to site a Win% ranking over several thousand bets ,you will see there is not much difference in SR between the top selection & the 3rd selection.
With Place % , it has a significant difference in SR between say Top selection & 3rd selection working its way down with a consistant statistical curve.

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  #7  
Old 19th July 2004, 08:54 AM
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Hi Bhagwan. Disregarding the Win percentage has some merit. My system had a terrible run of outs, no wins in the previous 14 races, but 8 ran 2nd and 2 ran 3rd. I've never seriously considered looking at the place percenatge to replace my win percentage but ............
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  #8  
Old 19th July 2004, 11:29 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Thanks BGHWAN. Very much appreciate your reply.
I have been toying with 45 - 100 % place strike rate in one of my systems.
Will continue with that and the 50 +place strike rate.
Cheers.
darky.
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  #9  
Old 20th July 2004, 09:16 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Burrernut,
14 races does not make a year .
You are just experiences some of the frustrations of punting , stick with it .
Dont fall for the trap of betting Each Way because if they dont place ,you have to make up twice as much on your given selections.

You either bet,
Win only or place only.



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