Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Ratings2Win
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 2nd November 2015, 11:14 AM
PaulD01 PaulD01 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
Default Melbourne Cup 2015

I have posted our assessments for the 2015 Melbourne Cup

http://goo.gl/fKF4f6

There are a number of key principles to finding the winner of this race which include the ability to isolate the following:

R2W Winning Formula

1 New Personal Best (PB) earned in a recent run or last start
2 Had a recent Australian run
3 Form - win or close up run at their last start
4 Proven ability to run fast time over a distance
5 Abbreviated Autumn preparation
6 Market (only 3 winners longer than 16/1 last 30 years)
__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Last edited by PaulD01 : 2nd November 2015 at 11:17 AM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 2nd November 2015, 03:02 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,474
Default

I couldn't work out which horses you were recommending. I assume GREEN and YELLOW/ORANGE and not RED ?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 2nd November 2015, 03:13 PM
PaulD01 PaulD01 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
Default

Hi UB,

Assuming a fair track, selections and indicative chances as per probability/price assessments. The Red is avoid, Orange some value, Green best value based on prices available at the time of publication.

1. Fame Game
2. Trip To Paris
3. Preferment
4. Our Ivanhowe

Bear in mind we expect Fame Game to continue to ease, Our Ivanhowe to firm.

Opposing Max Dynamite and Criterion.
__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 2nd November 2015, 03:55 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 366
Lightbulb Question

Hi all similar to mine(1-2-3-4) apart from ALMOONQITH,
Which needs to elevate up again to a new PB to win won in
Slow time at Geelong hope for natural improvement etc other 1-2-3 the same.

My question is do you take into account breeding, or is it in your product And data base as an adjunct & if it is how hard or easy is it for someone,
Like myself who is at the bottom of the learning curve re this part of racing,
To actually incorporate into a ratings & selection technique.

A brief explanation re the breeding is fine I have the rest thanks.

Cheers.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 2nd November 2015, 04:54 PM
PaulD01 PaulD01 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 333
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by garyf
Hi all similar to mine(1-2-3-4) apart from ALMOONQITH,
Which needs to elevate up again to a new PB to win won in
Slow time at Geelong hope for natural improvement etc other 1-2-3 the same.

My question is do you take into account breeding, or is it in your product And data base as an adjunct & if it is how hard or easy is it for someone,
Like myself who is at the bottom of the learning curve re this part of racing,
To actually incorporate into a ratings & selection technique.

A brief explanation re the breeding is fine I have the rest thanks.

Cheers.


Hi garyf,

The normal standard breeding information exists such as Sire/Dam. The issue of whether and how you could/should incorporate breeding into your assessments is a challenging one. The issue is that for the most part it is unreliable. You only have to consider the amounts paid both high and low for horses to soon realise that its more often than not a lottery.

Personally we do consider breeding but only as a secondary factor and only in certain situations. Given any interpretations are largely subjective, we are only really ever only trying to get a guide on a horse when its stepping up to a new distance range and we are unsure as to whether it might get the trip. More often that not this question and answer is usually evident by the additional race sectional ratings data that we produce from our source that supply's our verified race and sectional times.

I can tell you that the major syndicates don't factor breeding as an important factor.
__________________
Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 2nd November 2015, 06:53 PM
garyf garyf is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 366
Smile

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulD01
Hi garyf,

The normal standard breeding information exists such as Sire/Dam. The issue of whether and how you could/should incorporate breeding into your assessments is a challenging one. The issue is that for the most part it is unreliable. You only have to consider the amounts paid both high and low for horses to soon realise that its more often than not a lottery.

Personally we do consider breeding but only as a secondary factor and only in certain situations. Given any interpretations are largely subjective, we are only really ever only trying to get a guide on a horse when its stepping up to a new distance range and we are unsure as to whether it might get the trip. More often that not this question and answer is usually evident by the additional race sectional ratings data that we produce from our source that supply's our verified race and sectional times.

I can tell you that the major syndicates don't factor breeding as an important factor.


Thanks have the SIRE-DAM-G/SIRE of all horses in my data base,
Problem is how to use them as to me they are a name only.

So at the moment it is not an important part of R2W as you,
Have other means to determine situations that arise that's,
What I do now, however I am tinkering with this idea to see if,
It may or may not provide a means to add to what I already am doing.

Cheers.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 01:07 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655