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  #1  
Old 4th November 2016, 10:41 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Smile $ Return in Reality?

Hi team,

A question I have always wanted know.

In yearly $ return on a Bank of $10,000 what would a reasonable figure be ?

I would average 4 bets per race to return on each bet 4 % of the bank betting to available fixed Price.

I have no intention of changing this figure until the Bank has at least doubled

Cheers
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  #2  
Old 4th November 2016, 05:40 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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I ask as I recall Warren Block commenting that if one doubed their Bank in the 1st year they were doing exceedingly well.

That was some years ago and was wondering if that had changed any with the advent of new racing information.

Cheers.
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  #3  
Old 4th November 2016, 06:36 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
I ask as I recall Warren Block commenting that if one doubed their Bank in the 1st year they were doing exceedingly well.

That was some years ago and was wondering if that had changed any with the advent of new racing information.

Cheers.



Doubling the bank is a very good result.

Its not hard to double the bank. Just find a fav at $2 that is a "certain" winner and bet your whole bank on it and then don't bet for the rest of the year. Alternatively find two $1.50 place chances and bet them into each other.

The problem is consistency. Doubling your bank every year is extremely hard on a consistent basis. It introduces a lot more risk for the extra reward because you will need to increase your % of bank bet size to creat4e the higher returns.

Aim for 20% as that is achievable.
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  #4  
Old 5th November 2016, 09:54 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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UselessBettor,

Many thanks for your reply.
Very much appreciated.

20 % is a good figure for me to aim at.

Cheers
darky
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  #5  
Old 5th November 2016, 09:56 AM
PaulD01 PaulD01 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Hi team,

A question I have always wanted know.

In yearly $ return on a Bank of $10,000 what would a reasonable figure be ?

I would average 4 bets per race to return on each bet 4 % of the bank betting to available fixed Price.

I have no intention of changing this figure until the Bank has at least doubled

Cheers


Hi Darky,

All depends on:

1. Your average edge over the market on each bet;
2. Your average horse winning strike rate;
3. Your maximum risk threshold;
4. The number of bets over a period of time e.g per year.

So I will give you an example of the facts surrounding the nature of betting.

1. We will assume that you have a 10% edge over the market on every bet;
2. We will assume that your average horse winning strike rate is 15% (4 x 15% = 60% race strike rate)
3. We will assume that your maximum risk threshold is 50% of your betting bank.
4. We will assume that you have 1,667 bets in a 12 months period.

Your expected profit assuming the points above will be $10,002 (therefore you would double your bank. however:

1 line of deviation (68% of outcomes) the results could be anywhere between a profit of $3,587 and $16,417; and

2 lines of deviation (95% of outcomes) the results could be anywhere between a loss of $2,827 and a profit of $22,831.

Anywhere in the range is normal and almost guaranteed to occur. There is of course a 5% chance that the results could fall outside the ranges depicted above.

So the reality is you could have guaranteed edge of 10% profit expectation on every bet, have 1,667 bets and still be a net loser. That is the single biggest issue for punters to get their head around.
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Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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  #6  
Old 5th November 2016, 10:20 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
3. We will assume that your maximum risk threshold is 50% of your betting bank.


50% ... I would have a heart attack if I lost that much. Unless your a gambler I would think most people would not want to risk that much.

I assume by maximum risk threshold your talking about the maximum drawdown (loss in terms of bank percentage) they are willing to handle. I would say most professional punters would want this at 5% or less.
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  #7  
Old 5th November 2016, 10:26 AM
PaulD01 PaulD01 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
50% ... I would have a heart attack if I lost that much. Unless your a gambler I would think most people would not want to risk that much.

I assume by maximum risk threshold your talking about the maximum drawdown (loss in terms of bank percentage) they are willing to handle. I would say most professional punters would want this at 5% or less.


Hi UB

Most pros much like myself work to a maximum draw down of approx 40-60% of their designated betting bank. At 5% you are not employing capital optimally. But of that's what suits you then all good.
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Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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  #8  
Old 5th November 2016, 10:38 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Thank you Paul,

The figures are absolutely fascinating.

Only wish I was more computer savvy as yourself.

The information is priceless.

Cheers.
Darcy
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  #9  
Old 5th November 2016, 05:35 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulD01
Hi UB

Most pros much like myself work to a maximum draw down of approx 40-60% of their designated betting bank. At 5% you are not employing capital optimally. But of that's what suits you then all good.


Paul,

If you can accept 40% drawdowns then your a much more risk accepting punter then me. I prefer a maximum of 5%.

My issue with a higher drawdown is for my own mental health.

Its because of the numbers below:
A drawdown of 40% on $100 is only $40. <- Most people can handle this easily.
A drawdown of 40% on $1000 is only $400. <- Most people can handle this for short periods providing the bounce back is quick.
A drawdown of 40% on $10,000 is $4000. <- Most people can not handle this even with a quick bounce back.
A drawdown of 40% on $100,000 is $40,000. <- 99.9% of people can not handle this without affecting their health and mental state.
A drawdown of 40% on $1,000,000 is $400,000. <- 100% of people can not handle this at any stage.

At 5% the numbers are a bit different :

A drawdown of 5% on $100 is only $5. <- Everyone can handle this easily.
A drawdown of 5% on $1000 is only $50. <- Most people can handle this easily.
A drawdown of 5% on $10,000 is only $500. <- Some people can handle this easily, others will not.
A drawdown of 5% on $100,000 is only $5K. <- Less than 20% of people will probably be able to handle this loss.
A drawdown of 5% on $1,000,000 is only $50K. <- Less than 10% of people will probably be able to handle this loss.

Its all about the size of the loss. Losing 40% of a small number is nothing when people compare it to their wages and other spending they do. When they lose 50K its much different.

As I progress building my bet sizes I can now take losses easily in the thousands but its a learned state of mind and it takes time. If I had to also contend with 40% of my bank gone I would be a mental wreck.

For smaller punters (who have a bank less than $1K) then a higher drawdown is probably acceptable, but do you think a punter should lower their drawdown % as their bank grows ?
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  #10  
Old 6th November 2016, 04:44 PM
PaulD01 PaulD01 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Paul,

If you can accept 40% drawdowns then your a much more risk accepting punter then me. I prefer a maximum of 5%.

My issue with a higher drawdown is for my own mental health.

Its because of the numbers below:
A drawdown of 40% on $100 is only $40. <- Most people can handle this easily.
A drawdown of 40% on $1000 is only $400. <- Most people can handle this for short periods providing the bounce back is quick.
A drawdown of 40% on $10,000 is $4000. <- Most people can not handle this even with a quick bounce back.
A drawdown of 40% on $100,000 is $40,000. <- 99.9% of people can not handle this without affecting their health and mental state.
A drawdown of 40% on $1,000,000 is $400,000. <- 100% of people can not handle this at any stage.

At 5% the numbers are a bit different :

A drawdown of 5% on $100 is only $5. <- Everyone can handle this easily.
A drawdown of 5% on $1000 is only $50. <- Most people can handle this easily.
A drawdown of 5% on $10,000 is only $500. <- Some people can handle this easily, others will not.
A drawdown of 5% on $100,000 is only $5K. <- Less than 20% of people will probably be able to handle this loss.
A drawdown of 5% on $1,000,000 is only $50K. <- Less than 10% of people will probably be able to handle this loss.

Its all about the size of the loss. Losing 40% of a small number is nothing when people compare it to their wages and other spending they do. When they lose 50K its much different.

As I progress building my bet sizes I can now take losses easily in the thousands but its a learned state of mind and it takes time. If I had to also contend with 40% of my bank gone I would be a mental wreck.

For smaller punters (who have a bank less than $1K) then a higher drawdown is probably acceptable, but do you think a punter should lower their drawdown % as their bank grows ?


HI UB,

I understand the point you are trying to make and it certainly does have some relevance however I can't agree with that line of thinking. If your maximum risk threshold is set at 5% then so be it. I'm certainly not trying to influence what you should do. It is true though that very few understand the realities of betting in the context of adequate bankroll management even though much has been written on the subject.

Yo answer you question, "do you think a punter should lower their drawdown % as their bank grows ?"

The answer is it depends on whether they continue to reinvest profits or whether they withdraw them on a regular basis. For our team we treat each month as a settlement period in that if we have made money we deduct expenses and distribute the remainder of the profits to the trading partners. If a punter doesn't require the funds to be withdrawn then over time the bank will grow so that the same percentage draw-down takes on greater significance as you have highlighted. I suppose you would then look to reduce the percentage.

One tool we do employ is that we recalculate our bank each day to account for wins/losses and size our bets based on that figure so that we stake relatively on what the bank is doing. Other syndicates do similar.

Hope that helps.
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Regards


Paul Daily - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd (Director)
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database; with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate performance ratings that include Hong Kong.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
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