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  #1  
Old 4th August 2018, 09:02 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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I had a look at yesterday's racing results. I only checked handicap races which were stated on the TAB website. I hypothetically backed only the top half (TAB numbers). There were 10 races and the winner was struck in 9 of them. There were 53 horses and if each was bet for $1 the outlay would have been $53 but the TAB return would have been $197.10. I realise this might be a once-only situation but could be worth checking or even the foundation for some sort of system.
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  #2  
Old 4th August 2018, 09:24 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
I had a look at yesterday's racing results. I only checked handicap races which were stated on the TAB website. I hypothetically backed only the top half (TAB numbers). There were 10 races and the winner was struck in 9 of them. There were 53 horses and if each was bet for $1 the outlay would have been $53 but the TAB return would have been $197.10. I realise this might be a once-only situation but could be worth checking or even the foundation for some sort of system.


Top 5 weighted horses generally win most of the handicaps so yes it is something that happens regularly.
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  #3  
Old 4th August 2018, 09:30 AM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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I'm checking a lay system which is 4 months old today and, for $1 lay bets (win $1 or lose odds-$1 - i.e if a $4 horse wins we lose $3). It went up to +$54 in 2 months and has now dropped to only +$5.

My point is you can't go on data collected for one day, one week, one month or even 4 months it seems.
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  #4  
Old 4th August 2018, 09:31 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, The Ocho. I'm only looking at one type of race (handicaps) whilst I'm under the impression you make no differential with the types of races you've been checking?

True, U.B. I've also looked at yesterday's Maidens but there seems to be no consistency with regards to rules or logic.

Last edited by michaelg : 4th August 2018 at 09:36 AM.
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  #5  
Old 4th August 2018, 09:36 AM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
I had a look at yesterday's racing results. I only checked handicap races which were stated on the TAB website. I hypothetically backed only the top half (TAB numbers). There were 10 races and the winner was struck in 9 of them. There were 53 horses and if each was bet for $1 the outlay would have been $53 but the TAB return would have been $197.10. I realise this might be a once-only situation but could be worth checking or even the foundation for some sort of system.

From a very quick look it looks like there was a $30 winner among that lot which will skew things (unless that's normal).
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  #6  
Old 4th August 2018, 09:47 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, The Ocho. These are yesterday's races and the TAB divvies:

Goulburn
Race 2 - paid $4.70
Race 5 - paid $2.80
Race 8 - paid $31.50

Geelong
Race 3 - paid $2.10
Race 4 - paid $8.00
Race 5 - paid $10.50

Gatton
Race 3 - paid $6.70

Carnavron
Race 1 - paid $4.40
Race 4 - paid $30.70
Race 6 - lost.

Even though there were only 10 races it shows promise. Maybe today it might crash big time.
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  #7  
Old 4th August 2018, 12:56 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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I read something once , the winner of handicaps (all in) is in the top 6, 80% S/R, also 80% of Handicap winners finished within 3.5 lengths of the winner last start, and 80% of handicap winners are carrying within 3.5 Kg's of their weight last start, and 80% of Handicap winners were running within 31 days from last start, I tried to make a system out of it, but couldn't make it pay.
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  #8  
Old 4th August 2018, 01:19 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, Party. That seems to involve a fair bit of work but in my situation unfortunately I can't attempt to do look at it, something less laborious would suit me, such as TAB numbers. I notice there's been a good strike rate with today's races already run. Randwick Race 4 was a handicap race - there were 7 runners in the top half and the winner was struck for a TAB dividend of $37.60. Seeing there's a high strike rate I hopefully will have the opportunity to look at how the selections fare with Place and the Exotics.
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Old 5th August 2018, 09:29 AM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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How did this go yesterday mg?
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  #10  
Old 5th August 2018, 11:40 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Sorry, The Ocho, I haven't checked. However, I did bet ($2 Betfair SP) on 5 races to Place and made a profit of $29.07 so I'm looking and betting on today's races to Place. Out of interest today's races are:

Muswellbrook
Races 1,3,4,5,7

Gundagai
Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Sunshine Coast
Races 2,5,7, 8

Sandown
Races 3,6,7,8,9

Devenport
Races 1,2,4,6,7,8

Port Headland
Races 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,
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