Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Racing
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 18th April 2006, 11:19 AM
bwuce bwuce is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: QLD
Posts: 205
Talking First-Up

I’ve noticed over time that many forumites shy away from backing / tipping horses running first-up after a spell. I think in general the uninformed punter does similar and as such backing specific ‘first-up’ horses can provide a nice return on investment.

I normally punt on a $4x$8 basis as often they will run a place (but not necessarily win) at big odds.

I select horses that are resuming from a spell of 6 months or less, with a previous good first-up record, that have been rated in my top 5 selections for the particular race.

Their race rating is based on the average of previous first-up performances max 3 most recent for 5YOs or older, or best of last 2 for 4YOs or younger.

I’ll often increase my outlay if they have performed well in recent barrier trial/s.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 18th April 2006, 11:26 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,383
Default

Bwuce, my experience is that most races of 1200m or LESS are won by 1st uppers, as you say often at big odds. This rule also quite often catches the "STAYER" resuming at short distance and jags it, there have been some beauts like this.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 18th April 2006, 11:28 AM
bwuce bwuce is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: QLD
Posts: 205
Default TUES April 18

Today’s qualifiers are:-

Scone R6 1 Opal Chip
Scone R7 1 Diamond Ridge / 3 Endless Dream
Scone R8 4 Seven Stars / 7 Vernissage

All $4x$8
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 18th April 2006, 11:35 AM
bwuce bwuce is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: QLD
Posts: 205
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Bwuce, my experience is that most races of 1200m or LESS are won by 1st uppers, as you say often at big odds. This rule also quite often catches the "STAYER" resuming at short distance and jags it, there have been some beauts like this.


You’re probably right partypooper but I have been including races up to 1400 - thanks
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 18th April 2006, 03:08 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,031
Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwuce
Scone R6 1 Opal Chip


Well done!

He had a GREAT first-up record and a pretty good record at the track and the distance. How could he be those odds???

Last edited by Sportz : 18th April 2006 at 03:12 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 18th April 2006, 03:15 PM
classiconi classiconi is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 79
Talking

Nice tip on the 6th bwuce, might tempt me to have a go at the next
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 18th April 2006, 04:11 PM
crash crash is offline
Suspended.
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
Default

R6/1 Nice job for a toppy with 59kg. in 'slow' cond't. I had Queen Jill [$2.30p] for 2nd.

R8 My money is on Seven Stars who should win, even if it goes to heavy. 4 or 5 scratchings though so odds will be down and probably no 3rd. divvy.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 18th April 2006, 05:40 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,031
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
He had a GREAT first-up record and a pretty good record at the track and the distance. How could he be those odds???


Forgot to mention 3 previous placings from 3 starts in the wet too.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 19th April 2006, 11:19 AM
bwuce bwuce is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: QLD
Posts: 205
Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwuce
Today’s qualifiers are:-

Scone R6 1 Opal Chip
Scone R7 1 Diamond Ridge / 3 Endless Dream
Scone R8 4 Seven Stars / 7 Vernissage

All $4x$8



Great start with Opal Chip winning - paid $11.30 & $2.80
Diamond Ridge & Endless Dream both unplaced
Vernissage late scratching
Seven Stars then finished things off on a good note winning the last - paid $1.70 & $1.10

Total outlay $48 Total return $83.20
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 19th April 2006, 11:26 AM
bwuce bwuce is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: QLD
Posts: 205
Default WED April 19

Today’s qualifiers (early races) are:-

Randwick R1 4 Hadaaf
Randwick R2 4 Sharp Aunty

All $4x$8

Back with the rest later
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 03:46 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655