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  #51  
Old 20th October 2020, 12:48 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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I'm always weary of including horses that are trying to have a second or third go at it. Seems the often can run a place if performed well in previous years but rarely actually win. Now that may be simply due to luck or variance but its incredibly hard to win one melbourne cup, its even harder to try again second time around after losing previously with typically a higher weight and another years runs in the legs at an older age.

Not saying those runners can't run a great race, but if you want to narrow down the winning chances they'd be the first i'd look at in terms of winning. But it would be dangerous not to include them in exotics for placings.
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  #52  
Old 20th October 2020, 10:17 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Just noticed that the table I posted up was wrong. The total included a "< 10th position on the turn" point, which hasn't been part of "the system" since the first year (retrospectively).

Removing that column leaves Tiger Moth and Surprise Baby as the only ones with a clean sweep.



Nominees racing this Wednesday. Runners are eligible for a weight handicap in The Cup. Top 3 here run a qualifying performance and the prizemoney is added to their tally in the Order of Entry (latest one: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-2020.pdf?la=en).

No-one's going to leap their way into the Top 24 without a weight penalty. There could be some shuffling in the order though: San Huberto winning would see him land in 25th position.

bet365 Geelong - Race 7 - 4:00PM bet365 Geelong Cup (2400 METRES)

ASHRUN (FR) 34$3.80
SKYWARD (FR) 37$4.40
LE DON DE VIE (GB) 38
$5.50
STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 35$5.50
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) 25$8.50
SAN HUBERTO (IRE) 30$8.50
ENTENTE YTPFBC$16.00
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ) 33
$26
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  #53  
Old 21st October 2020, 06:30 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I appreciate all the work you put it.

I'll do my final selections the day of the cup, but its looking like a more condensed set of selections this year compared to the last few years.

I only remove runners who have been in this race previously and not run well. Its a good filter to use but a little subjective.
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  #54  
Old 22nd October 2020, 11:43 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Results from Cup nominees yesterday:


2400m Good4 GEEL CUP Group 3 $400,000
STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 351st of 90L@ $3.5
LE DON DE VIE (GB) 382nd of 90.2L@ $8
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) 253rd of 91.45L@ $8.5
ASHRUN (FR) 344th of 91.65L@ $6
SKYWARD (FR) 375th of 92.4L@ $5
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ) 337th of 95.25L@ $21
SAN HUBERTO (IRE) 308th of 910.25L@ $26
ENTENTE 56=9th of 912.5L@ $8
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  #55  
Old 22nd October 2020, 11:56 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Steel Prince was awarded a 0.5kg weight penalty for his Geelong Cup victory yesterday. This seems him promoted up to 25th in the Order of Entry.
Not as good news for Django Freeman, Aktau and Santiago who have all been withdrawn through injury.


Here's the Order of Entry released today: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...3326db11d5.ashx (NB - still includes Django Freeman). 62 runners remain in the hunt. Two ballot exemptions are still on offer: one to the victor of Saturday's Cox Plate and the other to the winner of the Hotham Stakes (the Saturday following).



There's less than 2 weeks to until the big dance! :O
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  #56  
Old 24th October 2020, 10:21 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Today's Cup nominees:


The Valley - Race 8 - 3:30PM McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500 METRES)

NomineeOrderPrice
OCEANEX (NZ) 2=$10
ETAH JAMES (NZ) 21$26
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 22$21
HUSH WRITER (JPN) 36$11
SOUND (GER)39$5.50
CARIF 42$21.00
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) 45$15
SELINO (GB) 51$11
LEVENDI 52$31
SHARED AMBITION (IRE) 54$4


The Valley - Race 9 - 4:15PM Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040 METRES)

NomineeOrderPrice
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 7$4.20
SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 11$11
BUCKHURST (IRE) 15$26
MUGATOO (IRE) 28$20
MASTER OF WINE (GER) 33$41
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  #57  
Old 25th October 2020, 05:34 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Sir Dragonets run was eye catching. It was a good ride though which couldn't be faulted.
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  #58  
Old 25th October 2020, 10:22 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Weekend results from Cup nominees:


2040m Soft7 COX PLATE Group 1 $5,250,000

HorseOrderPlacePrice
SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 21st of 14$7.5
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 83rd of 14$3.5
MUGATOO (IRE) 284th of 14$26
MASTER OF WINE (GER) 338th of 14$31
BUCKHURST (IRE) 1510th of 14$26


2500m Soft7 MV CUP Group 2 $511,000

HorseOrderPlacePrice
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 221st of 12$26
SHARED AMBITION (IRE) 442nd of 12$4.2
OCEANEX (NZ) 3=3rd of 12$10
ETAH JAMES (NZ) 214th of 12$31
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) 465th of 12$19
SOUND (GER)396th of 12$5.5
CARIF 427th of 12$18
SELINO (GB) 528th of 12$9.5
LEVENDI 5311th of 12$21
HUSH WRITER (JPN) 3612th of 12$16
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  #59  
Old 25th October 2020, 10:33 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Collide is out and there may be a few more to follow tomorrow, with third acceptances due. Following the weekend's racing, "the system" tallies now looks like this:

HorseOrderTotalLess than 8yoWgt < 57kgNot a mare<= $21 SP< $16 in lastWgtd < than in lastFS in last >= 10Won Black Type<=3L in last<6 victories
SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 2101111111111
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 8101111111111
TIGER MOTH (IRE) 11101111111111
SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 18101111111111
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 991111110111
FINCHE (GB) 2091111101111
SCHABAU (GER) 4891110111111
ATTORNEY (FR) 50=91110111111
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) 2681110110111
NICKAJACK CAVE (IRE) 3281110110111
ASHRUN (FR) 3581110110111
LE DON DE VIE (GB) 3781110110111
SKYWARD (FR) 3881110110111
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) 4381110111110
SHARED AMBITION (IRE) 4481110111110
PONDUS (GB) 4781110111101
PERSAN 3=81110111110
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE) 57=81110111011
ADMIRE ROBSON (JPN) 57=81110111011
FUTURE SCORE (IRE) 57=81110111110
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 171101101110
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) 571011101110
BUCKHURST (IRE) 1571110011101
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 2271100011111
STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 2571110110110
ZEBROWSKI (NZ) 3071110110011
MASTER OF WINE (GER) 3371110011101
HUSH WRITER (JPN) 3671110011101
PATHS OF GLORY (GB) 4971110111100
SELINO (GB) 5271110111001
LEVENDI 5371110011101
OCEANEX (NZ) 3=71100111110
ENTENTE 55=71110110101
CADRE DU NOIR (USA) 57=71110111001
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 1060110110110
MIRAGE DANCER (GB) 1361110001101
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)1660111001110
WARNING 1761110001101
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) 1961110001101
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 2461110001110
MUGATOO (IRE) 2861110011100
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE) 2961110001101
SAN HUBERTO (IRE) 3161110010101
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ) 3461110010101
SOUND (GER)3960110111100
AZURO (FR) 4061110011100
CHAPADA 4161110001101
CARIF 4261110011001
HAKY (IRE) 4561110011001
AL GALAYEL (IRE) 5461110110100
MIDTERM (GB) 50=60110110101
LORD BELVEDERE (GB)55=61110111000
GRAND PROMENADE (GB) 57=61110110001
VOW AND DECLARE 651010001101
AVILIUS (GB) 751010001110
MUSTAJEER (GB) 1250110001101
STRATUM ALBION (GB)1450110110010
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ) 2351100001101
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) 4650110011100
ETAH JAMES (NZ) 2140100011100
TRUE SELF (IRE) 2730100001100
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  #60  
Old 26th October 2020, 02:16 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Third acceptances are in and there are a couple of surprises: three of the top 24 dropped out of the running.


  • Mirage Dancer (formerly 13th) was the highest of these. After taking out the Metropolitan he finished a long adrift second-last in the Caulfield Cup; he must have had a niggle he couldn't overcome.
  • After all the hullaballoo about being the Cox Plate emergency behind less worthy runners, Buckhurst (formerly 15th in the order) finished well off the pace in 10th. Now he's out of the Cup.
  • Toffee Tongue (23rd in the order) was 14th in the Caulfield Cup
  • Mugatoo would have now been on the bubble, but has elected not to continue after his 4th placing in the Cox Plate (in which he finished 3.5L back and ran 5 lengths further than the winner).
  • Raheen House was one further spot back in the Order (and a lot further back in the Caulfield Cup)
  • Too far back in the order and out of time were: Master Of Wine, Brimham Rocks, Shared Ambition, Paths Of Glory, Midterm, Selino, Levendi, Al Galayel and Entente.
  • Cadre du Noir and Grand Promenade were yet to pass the first ballot clause and pulled the pin.
45 remain in the running. The current Order of Entry is here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...oct-26-2020.pdf
  • Four are still to pass the first ballot clause: Lord Belvedere, Admire Robson, Future Score and Saracen Knight.
  • The Bendigo Cup on Wednesday is a qualifying race and prizemoney attained will count. It will be very interesting around the bottom of the Top 24. The Hotham Stakes winner will leap above them all, but Zebrowski could sneak into 23rd with a win at Bendigo.
  • Everybody else seems to either be counting on further attrition or to win the Hotham
  • True Self is currently in 24th but hasn't nominated for either (or maybe the Racing Australia website still needs an update; noms only closed 3 hours ago for the Bendigo Cup).
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