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  #11  
Old 15th June 2017, 08:36 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)


How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?

LG
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  #12  
Old 16th June 2017, 07:53 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
How's about if we swap the 2 and 3 with a 4 or 5 Demodocus?LG

Wandering into the realms of fantasy.

Here's a quick go using a sample of 288,224 as follows:-

Today's Going = Good
Distance <=1650m.
DSLS <=30
Field 8 - 14
Prev. Races >=4

Taking the SUM of the Last 2 Places to generate a WSR

2 ....... 20.35%
3 ....... 17.40%
4 ....... 16.17
5 ....... 15.28
6 ....... 14.02
7 ....... 13.29
8 ....... 12.40
9 ....... 11.44
10 ..... 10.46

Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.
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  #13  
Old 16th June 2017, 08:21 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Hence 2PLACE is a fair indicator, but the "flat" spot could be costly.

So, using exactly the same data and conditions I had a look at SUM of last 2 starts Beaten Dist rather than Place.

<=1 ..... 18.63%
2 .......... 16.23
3 .......... 15.31
4 .......... 14.04
5 .......... 13.29
6 .......... 12.92
7 .......... 11.76
8 .......... 10.79
9 .......... 10.11

Time to take Mr Jack to the beach. Have a good day.
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  #14  
Old 16th June 2017, 01:40 PM
SpeedyBen SpeedyBen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

A good lay system then. I'll get my bot to test it on that basis.
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  #15  
Old 19th June 2017, 08:47 PM
El Gordo El Gordo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Long term WSR =19.7%, mostly favourites. :-)

Why not make it part of an all up or multi. With a bit luck you'll have more reasons to smile.
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