Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 24th March 2018, 07:39 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,717
Default How to bet odds on horses

For those struggling to make a profit. Here is something which may help.


First thing in the morning check the fixed odds on each meeting. Why ?
Because we want to save ourselves a lot of time. So find all the horses which are $1.95 or less.

List them out in order of odds and start with the lowest odds first. The lowest odds are the ones with the most chance of winning.

Next check their rating on tatts.com and make sure they are either 98+ on the rating. You want 100 but sometimes there are reasons to forgive a horse without a 100 rating.

Next go to R+S and check their Don Scott ratings. Your looking for it to top. Also check their rating sheet and your looking for a horse which is clear top rated, ran the best last 3 rating and preferably is the top career rating as well.

Next check the horses form.
Check the 12 month record. You want a horse which is performing this year.
Read the last 3 runs and check for any stewards reports, injuries, etc. You want a horse which runs well in each run.
Check the barrier. Compare it to the recent runs and make a call on whether the barrier is good or bad.
Check the jockey and make a call on that jockey based on your idea or a rating.
Check the Prize Money today vs last 3 runs. Are they comparable or is this a step up.
Check the course record. It should be ok.
Check the distance record. It should be ok.

After checking all these things you should have an idea if the horse is worthwhile.

So why do all the above.
1. Use odds to quickly identify who others feel is the best contender, so you have done a quick, although poor, comparison to the rest of the field.
2. You have confirmed the fixed odds assessment with multiple computer ratings.
3. You have confirmed the horse is fit and in form by checking the form.
4. You have confirmed the horse can perform in this class by checking the prize money.
5. You have confirmed this is a suitable race by checking the distance and course records.
6. You have looked for race inhibitors by checking the jockey and barrier.

If you tick all these boxes you can be assured your horse will run well.


Now Here is a comparison of two horses I did today.

Rosehill R4: GAILO CHOP
Fixed odds this morning was $1.85
Rated 100 by Tatts with nearest contender at 95.
Don Scott rated fav.
Ratings had it a clear leader by 2 points. It had the best last 3 rating, best 12 month rating and best career rating.
Prize Money was similar class (100K-1 million) as todays race and it had performed well in last few runs.
Distance record was 50% win. Had not raced at this course.
Barrier was irrelevant for a 2000m race but was barrier 4 anyway. Barrier suited the style of horse who likes to be in the first few.
Jockey was acceptable with 17% strike rate over the last 350 races.

Decision : This horse was a likely winner.
Result : Winner.


Compare that to this horse.
Gold Coast R4: SEVENEEZ

Fixed odds this morning was $1.70
Rated 99 by Tatts with nearest contender at 100 and 98.
Don Scott rated 3rd and $14.00
Ratings had it 2nd by 0.5 points. But it had the best last 3 rating, best 12 month rating and best career rating.
Prize Money was a big step down in class but it had shown little form in the higher classes.
Distance record was 0% win from only 1 race. Had not raced at this course.
Barrier was a touch wide (6) for a horse which likes to lead. I prefer inside 4 barriers for leaders.
Jockey was acceptable with 14% strike rate over the last 350 races when considering the other jockeys in the race.

Decision : This horse was a a risk.
Result : Unplaced.


Just do the form on the real chances and you will see if they are worth the bet. Of course I chose odds on as a starting point but you could do every fav if you had the time and dedication.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 24th March 2018, 08:05 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,328
Default

I love this type of assessment, it has some clear lines to follow, there is a little personal interpretation on some factors but nothing to hard to handle.
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 24th March 2018, 08:28 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,202
Default

Thanks for the masterclass UB. Especially the validation using a mix of ratings.

NAILED IT

Cheers LG
__________________
Many punters on here can make money just looking at the prices of the horses without having a clue on the form analysis - Vortech

Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 24th March 2018 at 08:31 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 24th March 2018, 08:43 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,717
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I love this type of assessment, it has some clear lines to follow, there is a little personal interpretation on some factors but nothing to hard to handle.


Thanks Shaun, The personal interpretation is the difference between the really good handicappers and those that do ok at handicapping. I wanted to make it obvious that there can be a clear process to go through. Handicapping will always have some "art" to it though.


Quote:
Thanks for the masterclass UB. Especially the validation using a mix of ratings.
NAILED IT
Cheers LG


Thanks LG. Glad you liked it.


I am finding it worthwhile to actually give help these days as while I know most will ignore it, by writing it down and putting it out there I open it up for criticism and validation. I also find I criticise it myself while writing it and also pick up things which I do when I get lazy. I might try and put up some assessments tomorrow before the races for people to review.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 24th March 2018, 08:53 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,202
Default

Please do UB. Best kind of learning is writing it down / tapping it out I believe. Brain goes thru a process of self evaluation although in your case, not sure we are talking a brain .. COMPUTER.

LG
__________________
Many punters on here can make money just looking at the prices of the horses without having a clue on the form analysis - Vortech

Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 24th March 2018 at 08:56 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 24th March 2018, 11:19 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,328
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Anything that points more punters towards odds on runners is fine by me.



Ha Ha Ha i can see the big grin on your face.
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 25th March 2018, 01:23 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 3,202
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Anything that points more punters towards odds on runners is fine by me.


Funnily enough, could see you typing out this post before you did it. If I had as much insight picking winners .. money in the BANK.

LG
__________________
Many punters on here can make money just looking at the prices of the horses without having a clue on the form analysis - Vortech
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 25th March 2018, 07:58 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,717
Default

Hobart R4: BANCA BOY $1.65
Rated 100. Thre close contentders at 95,95,96.
Don Soctt rating is fav at $1.95
Clear top rating by 2.5. But not best of last 3 or career. Concerning.
Prizemoney shows similar class but form is just ok.
Career, 12 Month, course not great. Distance record ok.
Jockey and Barrier are good.

Decision : Has a good chance at winning but too many reasons to not consider.


Hobart R1: THOSE RED COLOURS $1.70
Clear 100 rated horse with next contender down at 93.
Don Scott rating at $1.26 and very clear fav.
Clear top rating by 7 points. 2nd best rated of last 3 and career which is concerning.
Prizemoney has this horse in similar class and performing adequate.
Career and course records ok (only 1 race for a third).
Has not raced at this distance.
Has not raced on a wet track.
Jockey and barrier are good.

Decision: Likely to Win. Concerning factors in there so would only bet for a place.


Hobart R3: SHOT OF IRISH $1.75
LATE SCRATCHING

Coffs Harbour R3: CENTRAL WITNESS $1.90
Rated 100 but 6 horses within 5 points which is concerning.
Rated 2nd Fav on don scott ratings.
Equal top rating. 3rd fv in Best of last 3, and worse in other ratings. Concerning.
Prizemoney class is similar and form ok.
Career and 12 month form has him as a place getter and not a winner.
Course record poor but distance record good.
Wet track form is good.
Jockey concerns. Barrier ok.

Decision : Steer clear of this selection.







Only been able to check 4 meetings so far as fixed odds are not up for the others yet.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 25th March 2018, 08:07 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,717
Default

Port Lincoln R1: FLOP $1.90
Rated 100. CLosest is 95 then drops to 91.
Clear Don Scott top rater but at $2.45.
Clear top rating, best of last 3 ratings and 2nd in career ratings. Slight Concern.
Prizemoney shows siilar class and performing ok. Concern with last run.
Course, career, 12 month, and distance figures are ok.
Jockey and barrier are ok.
Two new starters in this race with no barrier form trial. Take them as clear contenders for now.

Decision : Risky with the first starters. I can't see the horse not placing though so a place bet is worthwhile.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 25th March 2018, 08:29 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,328
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor

Only been able to check 4 meetings so far as fixed odds are not up for the others yet.


Where do you go for the fixed odds?
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 10:59 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655