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  #1  
Old 15th December 2016, 08:30 AM
Every Topic Every Topic is offline
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Default Top 5 system

For a long time I have wondered whether it would be possible to have a system where you are betting a number of horses in each race, one per betting account.
For example, let's say you decided to bet on the top 5 by price in every race.
We know that in the long term betting the top 5 in each race doesn't get you a profit.
We also know that the top 5 win something like 75% of all races so the strike rate is good.

Lets say you bet the 1st favourite in your first betting account, the 2nd fave in your 2nd betting account, the 3rd fave in your 3rd account, etc... for all five selections.
I have been trying to get my head around a method of maximising the profit for this.
e.g.When one of the accounts wins, you stop using that account as it is in profit for the day and keep betting with the other accounts until they are in profit.
Would this work? How might it work?
Not being a mathematician the answer doesnt suddenly appear to me.
And I dont think it is something that would be easy to test using a database.

What would be the best strategy to make it work?
Stopping when each account is in profit?
Stopping when you are in profit overall?
Ruling a line under the sequence of bets when you are ahead and start again?

I am not sure, I am just throwing it out there. But for years I have had this gut feeling that it might be a way of minimising risk and making a buck as you will be winning in one of your accounts in most races.
I am using the top 5 prices as an example we can all understand. It might be the top 5 tab numbers, or the top 5 ratings.

What does you guys think? Has anyone been down this path before?
And did it work?
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  #2  
Old 15th December 2016, 09:19 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Every Topic
For a long time I have wondered whether it would be possible to have a system where you are betting a number of horses in each race, one per betting account.
For example, let's say you decided to bet on the top 5 by price in every race.
We know that in the long term betting the top 5 in each race doesn't get you a profit.
We also know that the top 5 win something like 75% of all races so the strike rate is good.

Lets say you bet the 1st favourite in your first betting account, the 2nd fave in your 2nd betting account, the 3rd fave in your 3rd account, etc... for all five selections.
I have been trying to get my head around a method of maximising the profit for this.
e.g.When one of the accounts wins, you stop using that account as it is in profit for the day and keep betting with the other accounts until they are in profit.
Would this work? How might it work?
Not being a mathematician the answer doesnt suddenly appear to me.
And I dont think it is something that would be easy to test using a database.

What would be the best strategy to make it work?
Stopping when each account is in profit?
Stopping when you are in profit overall?
Ruling a line under the sequence of bets when you are ahead and start again?

I am not sure, I am just throwing it out there. But for years I have had this gut feeling that it might be a way of minimising risk and making a buck as you will be winning in one of your accounts in most races.
I am using the top 5 prices as an example we can all understand. It might be the top 5 tab numbers, or the top 5 ratings.

What does you guys think? Has anyone been down this path before?
And did it work?
Only way to do that is dutch betting and you have to do it on fixed odds TAB odds move even after the race started.
But it's still not going to guarantee a profit.

If a system like this would/could work then with today's computers and bots etc. you could eliminate the absolute no hopers and bet on the rest.

I have no idea if someone is doing it or not, if they do and eek out a .5% profit they would do well on turnover

Mostly betting on dogs myself and I do bet up to 3 at most for win usually 2 but only if the odds are there. Mostly place bets for me though.
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  #3  
Old 15th December 2016, 11:00 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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I agree, don't do it.

But this statement is far from true............"The ONLY way you can make money in punting is by identifying horses that all hands and the cook have mispriced".
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  #4  
Old 15th December 2016, 12:43 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
I agree, don't do it.

But this statement is far from true............"The ONLY way you can make money in punting is by identifying horses that all hands and the cook have mispriced".

Beat me to it
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  #5  
Old 15th December 2016, 05:57 PM
partypooper partypooper is online now
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Viva "power play" for e.g.
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  #6  
Old 15th December 2016, 06:26 PM
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Interestingly, if I had employed this method today...

after the 2nd race I would have been a total of 5 units up. This would have been my stop point for the whole thing.

After the 4th race, 4 of the 5 accounts would have had a win and I would have been 11.5 units up.

Have a great day and good luck.
:-)
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  #7  
Old 15th December 2016, 06:59 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Every Topic
Interestingly, if I had employed this method today...

after the 2nd race I would have been a total of 5 units up. This would have been my stop point for the whole thing.

After the 4th race, 4 of the 5 accounts would have had a win and I would have been 11.5 units up.

Have a great day and good luck.
:-)


I could test this for you using unitab dividends after the race, won't be perfect but may give an idea.

The biggest issue will be sequence of races, i can do all venues race 1 then race 2 and so on but i can't do it in exact race order as they jump.
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"If you need them , you will soon find out."
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Last edited by Shaun : 15th December 2016 at 07:04 PM.
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  #8  
Old 16th December 2016, 12:54 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I could test this for you using unitab dividends after the race, won't be perfect but may give an idea.

The biggest issue will be sequence of races, i can do all venues race 1 then race 2 and so on but i can't do it in exact race order as they jump.
Shaun I don't use excel but I'm sure you can sort your races by jump time ascending?
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  #9  
Old 16th December 2016, 06:16 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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What is the reasoning behind having 5 betting accounts? Are you not better just using the one account that is broken into 5 banks?

Or have I misinterpreted the original post?
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  #10  
Old 16th December 2016, 08:56 AM
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Shaun - there are a couple of reasons why I havent tested this out in detail. One being the need to get the races into time order on each day, the other being what you use as your price guide.(remembering I only use the top 5 prices as an idea off the top of my head. You could use your top 5 ratings etc...)
Yesterday I watched this as it was happening as my regular system had won its first bet and so I had stopped.

The second race had a fifth price that was drifting between two horses. I was using the tatts fixed prices and made a decision to go with the horse that ultimately won the event. I made that decision about a minute from the start.
Once the race was over the prices had shifted a little and the fifth priced horse had become the 6th priced horse. Given that my selection won and paid $11 this highlights a factor that is difficult to get from a database.
At some point, in real life, you have to make a decision and put your money on it.
This doesnt happen when looking at data from a database.

Anyhow... since I had opened by big mouth, I thought I would see how it would have gone. And it worked - for a day!! haha

Thorns - why 5 different accounts and not one?
Betting is mental, it is all about how your mind deals with ups and downs.
And there was also the idea, when I originally thought of this, that you might benefit from better prices on some of the sportsbooks.
It also helped me, mentally, assess the idea if I assigned one bet to one account.
There is probably no reason at all why you wouldnt use the one account, I dont know. Maybe experts in psychology and mathematics could explain it all. lol

And as I stated in my original post, I have taken the first 5 priced horses as my guide.You might have used the top 5 rated horses instead. I dont know if that would work.

Since this is a forum for throwing ideas around, I thought I would put this one out there to see if anyone had done it before, to see if you guys thought it was possible and to see if anyone had any angles on it that I hadnt thought of.

Just keeping you all on your toes....
:-)

Have a great day.
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