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  #61  
Old 14th December 2012, 03:34 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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I see your point now Mark.
However, what I am really trying to get to I guess is how much is the bet that michaelg is taking on when he lays for a liability of $33

$1 = 1 unit each time OR does it vary?

Michaelg??

Cheers LG
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  #62  
Old 14th December 2012, 03:38 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Mark, not being too savvy with maths I don't know if I follow your explanation.

I always thought the liability and payout were one and the same thing when laying single selections on Betfair S.P. I can understand laying with bookies, but on Betfair only the payout is shown which I assume is also the layer's liability because that is the amount he loses/pays out if the selection wins the race.
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  #63  
Old 14th December 2012, 04:38 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Its all getting a bit complicated. If you have a maximum liability (like $33) THAT IS ALL YOU will pay out of your account regardless of the money taken in from the other party.

$34 horse - If the horse wins you pay out your liability of $33 and give the guy his $1 back.

$2 Horse - If you've decided to have a maximum liability of $33 on a horse at this price and it wins you pay out your liability of $33 but also have to give back the back bet that the other party would of placed which, in this case, happens to also be $33 making it $66 going into the other guys account ($33 of your money and his bet returned).

$10 Horse wins with a liability of $30. The backer would of had to place a $3.33 bet to win $30. You therefore have to pay him $30 from your account and his $3.33 back as well. If the horse loses you keep his $3.33 (less commission of course).

I hope this helps (and I hope its right).
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  #64  
Old 15th December 2012, 05:12 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Thanks, T.O.

A bad day yesterday. There were two accidents from the 42 selections for a loss of $33.97.

There have now been 289 smiles from 294 selections for a profit of $65.31. My best day provided a profit of $65.76 so it's grounds to hope today might recoup most of the loss and not begin the road to despair.
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  #65  
Old 15th December 2012, 06:49 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Hi Michaelg.

Have been thinking about looking at lg1 / lg2 with your DS outsiders but this time apply them in the reverse. In other words, take out anything that can win. Not suggesting that it would eliminate all accidents, but it might help to reduce your risk.

What do you think?

Cheers LG
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Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 15th December 2012 at 06:51 AM.
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  #66  
Old 15th December 2012, 07:27 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Thanks, T.O.

A bad day yesterday. There were two accidents from the 42 selections for a loss of $33.97.



As an initial trial for lg1/2 trim, are you able to list the two accidents?

Cheers LG
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  #67  
Old 15th December 2012, 07:53 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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The bad boys were:

Pakenham 1/2
Sun Coast 2/4
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  #68  
Old 15th December 2012, 08:06 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
The bad boys were:

Pakenham lg1 = yes / lg2= yes
Sun Coast lg1 = no / lg2= yes

where yes = trim



See above

Cheers LG
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  #69  
Old 15th December 2012, 08:30 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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No alarm bells ringing when a 95% strike rate equals a bad day???
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  #70  
Old 15th December 2012, 08:34 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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PS the 2nd race in Sun City was what one might refer to as a 'skin head' = there's going to be pain!

skinhead => lg1 and/or lg2 indicating that any of the selections can win

Cheers LG
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