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  #41  
Old 8th October 2020, 11:31 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here's the latest Order of Entry: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...236d869bf3.ashx

And here are the nominees that are running across the weekend:

Friday
ENTENTE YTPFBCPort Macquarie - Race 7 - 5:10PM 2020 CARLTON DRAUGHT PORT MACQUARIE CUP (2000 METRES)
Saturday
CHAPADA 58Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) 49Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
IN GOOD HEALTH YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 25Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE) YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ) 37Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE) 31Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 27Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
ZEBROWSKI (NZ) 32Caulfield - Race 10 - 5:45PM Neds Herbert Power Stakes (2400 METRES)
LEVENDI YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 6 - 3:10PM Neds Stakes (2000 METRES)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 8Caulfield - Race 6 - 3:10PM Neds Stakes (2000 METRES)
ZACADA (NZ) YTPFBCRoyal Randwick - Race 4 - 2:55PM TRESEMME HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
Sunday
FUTURE SCORE (IRE) YTPFBCCranbourne - Race 8 - 4:50PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)
MIDTERM (GB) 60=Cranbourne - Race 8 - 4:50PM TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025 METRES)


Could be the last shot for some of these: second declarations are due on Tuesday.
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  #42  
Old 12th October 2020, 11:29 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Last few days of results from nominees:


Friday
ENTENTE YTPFBC1st of 10P MQ2000m Good3 PMAC CUP $203,500@ $1.5
Saturday
CHAPADA 451st of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $4.6
ZEBROWSKI (NZ) 322nd of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $9
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ) 373rd of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $31
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) 504th of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $13
IN GOOD HEALTH YTPFBC5th of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $7.5
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 256th of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $21
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 277th of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $11
ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE) YTPFBC9th of 9CAUL2400m Good3 HERBERT POWER Group 2 $301,000@ $2.6
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 82nd of 6CAUL2000m Good4 CAULFIELD STKS Group 1 $1,002,750@ $1.4
LEVENDI YTPFBC6th of 6CAUL2000m Good4 CAULFIELD STKS Group 1 $1,002,750@ $41
Sunday
FUTURE SCORE (IRE) YTPFBC1st of 15CRAN2025m Good3 CRAN CUP Listed $400,000@ $15
MIDTERM (GB) 60=12th of 15CRAN2025m Good3 CRAN CUP Listed $400,000@ $21


Second declarations are due noon Tuesday, 13th October.
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  #43  
Old 13th October 2020, 03:17 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Second acceptances announced this afternoon: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...2nd-acceptances

The 29 contenders who have dropped out of the running are:
ALMANIA (IRE)
AMERICAN WHISKEY (USA)
ANGEL OF TRUTH
ATTENTION RUN (GER)
BARADE (FR)
CREEDENCE
DADOOZDART (GB)
DANCETERIA (FR)
DJUKON (GB)
FEEL THE RUSH (NZ)
GAME KEEPER
GOOD IDEA
HIGH EMOCEAN (NZ)
IN GOOD HEALTH
INVOLVED (GB)
JUST THINKIN'
KINANE (NZ)
NORWAY (IRE)
ORDEROFTHEGARTER (IRE)
PORT GUILLAUME (FR)
RONDINELLA (NZ)
ROYAL CROWN
SIR CHARLES ROAD
SOUTH PACIFIC (GB)
SUPER GIRL
SWEET THOMAS (GER)
YOUNG RASCAL (FR)
ZACADA (NZ)
ZAMOSA (NZ)


Here is the order of entry of the remainders: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...-at-oct-13-2020

Third acceptances close Monday, 26th October at 12pm.


A few of the nominees are racing at Caulfield tomorrow:


Wednesday
AL GALAYEL (IRE) YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 2 - 2:00PM Neds Coongy Cup (2000 METRES)
DJANGO FREEMAN (GER) 47Caulfield - Race 2 - 2:00PM Neds Coongy Cup (2000 METRES)
GRAND PROMENADE (GB) YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 3 - 2:35PM BECK Probuild Handicap (2000 METRES)
CADRE DU NOIR (USA) YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 5 - 3:45PM Hyland Race Colours Handicap (2407 METRES)
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE) YTPFBCCaulfield - Race 5 - 3:45PM Hyland Race Colours Handicap (2407 METRES)
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  #44  
Old 14th October 2020, 03:19 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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walkermac, based on the usual stats around weight, females, age plus removing 1 or 2 horses i don't really like or think are underpriced I can only see that there are a few left over who are under current odds of about $41 and are very likely to get a start unless they pull out.

These would be:
Santiago
Tiger Moth
Warning
Toffee Tongue

I'm not a fan of russian camelot (think hes overhyped and thus odds are too low), also not a big fan of returning runners being a year older and up in weight winning it 2nd time around (although often can place). Therefore the list above seems like a bit of an early shortlist to me but was wondering what your or others thoughts were? Unfortunately the two I had some all-in futures multi's on are both now out (Nancho and Port Guillaume).
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  #45  
Old 16th October 2020, 05:46 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
walkermac, ....was wondering what your or others thoughts were?
Honestly, I've spent no time looking at the race beyond what was necessary to collate these posts. Bit of a letdown from previous years, but I've been caught up with other stuff unfortunately. Last year's race sucking so hard hasn't helped my enthusiasm either!


Results from nominees the past couple of days:

Wednesday
GRAND PROMENADE (GB) YTPFBC4th of 9CAUL2000m Good4 BM78 $135,000@ $2.80
DJANGO FREEMAN (GER) 475th of 8CAUL2000m Good4 COONGY Group 3 $200,750@ $4.20
AL GALAYEL (IRE) YTPFBC6th of 8CAUL2000m Good4 COONGY Group 3 $200,750@ $4
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE) YTPFBC6th of 12CAUL2407m Good4 BM84 $135,000@ $2.05
CADRE DU NOIR (USA) YTPFBC12th of 12CAUL2407m Good4 BM84 $135,000@ $4
Friday
MIDTERM (GB) 528th of 9MOE2050m Soft7 Moe Cup $130,000@ $8.50

I think we can safely forget those....


Nominees racing this weekend:

Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:15PM Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)
OCEANEX (NZ) 1=$201.00
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) 3$7.00
VOW AND DECLARE 4$34.00
AVILIUS (GB) 5$31.00
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 6$5.00
MUSTAJEER (GB) 13$101.00
MIRAGE DANCER (GB) 14$21.00
BUCKHURST (IRE) 16$11.00
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)17$18.00
WARNING 18$21.00
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) 20$31.00
FINCHE (GB) 21$12.00
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ) 24$16.00
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 25$101.00
TRUE SELF (IRE) 27$35.00
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE) 29$201.00
SAN HUBERTO (IRE) 31$91.00
MASTER OF WINE (GER) 33$7.50
LE DON DE VIE (GB) 39$67.00
CHAPADA 42$21.00
Royal Randwick - Race 9 - 5:30PM BENTLEY ST LEGER STAKES (2600 METRES)
AZURO (FR) 41$26.00
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) 44$4.20
PATHS OF GLORY (GB) 51$3.60
ATTORNEY (FR) 52=$5.50
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  #46  
Old 18th October 2020, 08:28 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Its good to see all this leading up to the race but I'll just be going back to the table that marks all the negatives and go with horses with the least negatives.

I assume you will be putting that table together again after next weekends races ?

ie http://www.ozmium.com.au/forums/sho...3&postcount=123

Last edited by UselessBettor : 18th October 2020 at 08:31 PM.
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  #47  
Old 18th October 2020, 11:22 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Its good to see all this leading up to the race but I'll just be going back to the table that marks all the negatives and go with horses with the least negatives.
Check it out:

HorseOrderTotalLess than 8yoWgt < 57kgNot a mare<= $21 SP< $16 in lastWgtd < than in lastFS in last >= 10Won Black Type<=3L in last<6 victories
TIGER MOTH (IRE) 10111111111111
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 7101111110111
SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 18101111111111
FINCHE (GB) 20101111101111
ASHRUN (FR) 34101110111111
HUSH WRITER (JPN) 36101110111111
ATTORNEY (FR) 51=101110111111
ENTENTE 58=101110111111
PERSAN 1=91110111110
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 891110110111
MUGATOO (IRE) 2791110111110
SAN HUBERTO (IRE) 3091110111101
NICKAJACK CAVE (IRE) 3191110110111
STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 3591110111110
LE DON DE VIE (GB) 3891110110111
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) 4391110111110
PONDUS (GB) 4891110111101
SCHABAU (GER) 4991110111111
SHARED AMBITION (IRE) 5791110111110
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE) 60=91110111011
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 681101101110
SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 1181110010111
BUCKHURST (IRE) 1581110101101
ZEBROWSKI (NZ) 2981110110011
MASTER OF WINE (GER) 3281110101101
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ) 3381110010111
SKYWARD (FR) 3781110010111
SOUND (GER)
3980110111110
DJANGO FREEMAN (GER) 4681110110101
PATHS OF GLORY (GB) 5081110111100
SELINO (GB) 5481110110011
ADMIRE ROBSON (JPN) 60=81110111011
CADRE DU NOIR (USA) 60=81110111001
FUTURE SCORE (IRE) 60=81110111110
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) 371011101110
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 970110110110
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 2471110001110
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) 2571110011101
AZURO (FR) 4071110011100
CHAPADA 4171110001101
CARIF 4271110011001
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) 4570110110110
AKTAU (GB) 4771110011101
COLLIDE (GB) 5371110011100
LEVENDI 5571110010101
AL GALAYEL (IRE) 5671110110100
MIDTERM (GB) 51=70110110101
LORD BELVEDERE (GB)58=71110111000
GRAND PROMENADE (GB) 60=71110110001
OCEANEX (NZ) 1=61100011100
AVILIUS (GB) 561010001110
MIRAGE DANCER (GB) 1361110001101
STRATUM ALBION (GB)
1460110110010
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)
1660111001110
WARNING 1761110001101
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) 1961110001101
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 2261100010101
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE) 2861110001101
HAKY (IRE) 4461110011001
VOW AND DECLARE 451010001101
MUSTAJEER (GB) 1250110001101
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ) 2351100001101
ETAH JAMES (NZ) 2140100011100
TRUE SELF (IRE) 2640100001100

I might have missed a black type race if it happened in Germany (R&S skips them).
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  #48  
Old 18th October 2020, 11:26 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Saturday results:

2400m Soft6 CAUL CUP Group 1 $5,150,000
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 61st of 180L@ $5
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) 32nd of 180.2L@ $6
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 243rd of 180.95L@ $61
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)164th of 181.95L@ $17
FINCHE (GB) 205th of 182.45L@ $9
AVILIUS (GB) 56th of 182.65L@ $31
BUCKHURST (IRE) 157th of 183.4L@ $11
MUSTAJEER (GB) 128th of 183.9L@ $101
CHAPADA 419th of 184.2L@ $21
MASTER OF WINE (GER) 3210th of 184.6L@ $7
WARNING 1712th of 185.2L@ $21
TRUE SELF (IRE) 2613th of 185.95L@ $31
TOFFEE TONGUE (NZ) 2314th of 186.45L@ $18
VOW AND DECLARE 415th of 188.7L@ $41
RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE) 2816th of 1815.7L@ $201
MIRAGE DANCER (GB) 1317th of 1817.2L@ $31
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) 1918th of 1827.2L@ $31
2600m Good4 ST LEGER $501,500
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) 432nd of 101L@ $4.4
ATTORNEY (FR) 51=4th of 101.3L@ $5.5
PATHS OF GLORY (GB) 505th of 105.5L@ $3.3
AZURO (FR) 406th of 106.1L@ $81
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  #49  
Old 19th October 2020, 05:52 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Looking at that list who are in the top 24 we can contain our bets down to these horses:

TIGER MOTH (IRE)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
FINCHE (GB)
PERSAN
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
BUCKHURST (IRE)

9 horses only which is not a bad list.

I would look to reduce these down further to

TIGER MOTH (IRE)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE)
PERSAN
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)

We can eliminate these horses:

SURPRISE BABY (NZ) -- TOO FAR BACK -- UNPLACED IN 2019
BUCKHURST (IRE) -- ODDS ARE TOO LONG
FINCHE (GB) -- UNPLACED IN 2019 / 2018
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  #50  
Old 20th October 2020, 10:17 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Looking at that list who are in the top 24 we can contain our bets down to these horses:

TIGER MOTH (IRE)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
FINCHE (GB)
PERSAN
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
BUCKHURST (IRE)

9 horses only which is not a bad list.
Verry Elleegant has slipped down a further rung on the ladder with a 0.5kg penalty earned from her Caulfield Cup victory (meaning she loses a point in "the system").

Russian Camelot could lose some points also, depending how he goes in the Cox Plate this weekend (NB - he will gain a point due to the field size)


Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
We can eliminate these horses:

SURPRISE BABY (NZ) -- TOO FAR BACK -- UNPLACED IN 2019
I'm not going to rule out any runners based on their performance in last year's "race". I'm cautious even about them being too far back. Il Paradiso came from 21st position at the 800m last year and may well have nabbed Vow And Declare on the line had Master Of Reality not squeezed him out. Cross Counter won from 22nd position at the 800m the year prior (and Marmelo's 2nd in that race, under a decent weight of 56kg, was also launched from 20th).

Persan must be a candidate for ruling out. His rating seems way too low. He's had 19 starts as well, so it's not like the handicappers haven't had a good look at him.

Last edited by walkermac : 20th October 2020 at 10:20 AM.
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