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  #91  
Old 20th October 2017, 04:01 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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You'd be hoping some of the international chances at least nominate for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup otherwise they'll pretty much be taken out of my winning chances. Obviously still a chance to place but history has proven they usually don't have the necessary fitness to win compared to those with the leadup races.

Side note, Marmelo has been gradually coming in on the Melb Cup betting too, last week or so I've noticed it come in from about $19's and touched $11's today with some bookies. I'll probably try have some multi's going into it from this weekend as I fear if it shows any form of ability tomorrow the odds could come down further.
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  #92  
Old 21st October 2017, 04:07 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quick Assessment of Caulfield Cup:

Marmelo had a fantastic run. That is exactly what you want to see going into a Melbourne cup.

Johannes Vermeer - Another great run. Got held up in the end and had no where to go else it could have probably won.

Bonneval - was very disappointing. There must be something behind the injury assessments.

Jon Snow - Got banged up badly and if Melb cup day is wet I would be on him.

Ventura Storm - Uninsipring run. Should have done better from where it was.
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  #93  
Old 22nd October 2017, 12:05 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Cup Watch Results

Saturday

Randwick

Race 4 - 2:20PM
CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP (2400 METRES)
(winner passes first ballot clause, can earn weight penalty, prizemoney counts)
ALWARD * - 2nd 0.3L ($2.40)
(* - yet to pass first ballot clause)


Caulfield

Race 5 - 2:35PM
Priceline Pharmacy Coongy Cup (2000 METRES)
(can earn a weight penalty, prizemoney does not count)
ASSIGN29 - 5th 7.2L ($3.50)


Race 8 - 4:30PM
BMW Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)
(first 8 placegetters pass first ballot clause, winner earns a ballot exemption, all runners except Humidor can earn a weight penalty, prizemoney counts)

The superscript numbers are obviously the ballot order leading into the weekend. VRC will update the list on Monday with earnings, ballot exemptions, etc

BOOM TIME * - 1st 1.2L ($51)
Yet to pass the first clause coming into the Caulfield Cup but now wins a ballot exemption for the big dance. The only runner in the leading bunch that was still in the finish of the Herbert Power last week. That showed Boom Time was in good form, along with the race prior: finishing only 1.75L behind Jon Snow in the JRA Cup. He dropped 4kg from that race; Jon Snow dropped 4.5kg....and was a quarter the price today on what we know is a less-preferred surface for him. Even his benchmark rating is only 1.5kg less than Jon Snow and today he was carrying 2.5kg less. Back in April Boom Time won a 2425m race at Caulfield after leading all the way and carrying 60kg. It was all there that he should have been $10-$12 at most!!!! ...so long as you discounted all the other conflicting information Straight to the fence towards the front and put to sleep. Came wider at the top of the straight and Humidor fortuitously blocked him from going wider still. Turned inside instead and found an uncontested line to the finish. A horse in good form with luck in running (and - as many argued throughout the day - in the right place on a track with a leader bias).

SINGLE GAZE 13 - 2nd 1.2L ($31)
Single Gaze had probably one of the best runs. Awkward out of the gates and then worked very hard from a wide barrier to find a forward running position well into the first turn. Essentially was the pacemaker after Sir Isaac Newton dashed off. Leading inside the 200m and only a handful made up any ground on her. Hasn't run 3200m before but this performance indicates it wouldn't be too big an ask.

JOHANNES VERMEER 14 - 3rd 1.4L ($5)
Surely back a pair or two further than they would have liked. Couldn't find the run he needed in the straight. I don't think followers could be too disappointed, though he didn't seem to have quite the same kick - whether that's the longer distance, the quick turnaround, the lack of opportunity, or a trick of the eye...who knows?

HUMIDOR 6 - 5th 2.6L ($6.50)
Didn't seem in much of a rush to get a good early position and then suddenly found himself 3 wide around the turn. A bit of a spurt eventually saw him find a good position, again towards the front, where much of the success was to be found. Had every opportunity in the straight but didn't make any ground.

MARMELO 11 - 6th 2.7L ($16)
Didn't we say Marmelo would win the Melbourne Cup earlier this week? We don't look so clever now that it's the $6.50 equal favourite but his price was halved after this run. Bowman went immediately to the rail from barrier 10 and settled off-midfield. Hooked him out wide from near-last coming into the straight then one of the few to gain ground late. Had the fastest last 400m of the field (but only 0.4s quicker than Boom Time, so nothing remarkable). Ran contrary to the pattern of racing, so props for that, but pretty much finished as you would expect a backmarking 2-miler blowing out the cobwebs to do so.

ABBEY MARIE * - 6th 2.7L ($31)
Passed the first ballot clause with this run and is probably somewhere around 31st in the order at present (though some ahead will likely not pay the second acceptance fee). First time over 2000m and went really well. A little lackadaisical from the start saw her 3WWC midfield. Began her run for home very early and was around 6W on the turn. Held on well but didn't make much ground on the leaders. Had the only apprentice jockey in the field onboard but didn't run contrary to her regular pattern, so no excuse there. Too far back today, too much work earlier in the race and not a strong enough kick. She'll win a good one when conditions suit.

HARLEM 35 - 8th 3.4L ($9)
I'd excused her middling run in the Bart Cummings, but he didn't show much here either (and what does that say about Almandin's run in the same race?). Had a bit of a shoving match with Jon Snow in the straight but didn't threaten at all after a cushy run.

JON SNOW 4 - 9th 4.7L ($13)
It's not wet and it's not at Moonee Valley, so what can you expect, really? Or maybe it was the 3 runs in 3 weeks that did him in. 2W the trip, 5W the turn. Got shoved and clipped by Harlem but wasn't doing anything that would have gotten him better than 5th or 6th position.

AMELIE’S STAR 1 - 11th 5.3L ($9.50)
Went forward as she did in her previous race/victory in the Bart Cummings, only she was very wide here and had to work hard. Presumably Craig Williams shared the belief that there was a leader bias. Gassed in the straight and went backwards late.

WICKLOW BRAVE 18 - 12th 5.4L ($71)
Wide gate and went straight to the rail, meaning she was in the last four in the field. Seems to prefer racing more forward typically (she was drawn the widest in the Melbourne Cup last year and went ahead to claim 4th position in the early running). Trailed Johannes Vermeer but couldn't match his late pace.

VENTURA STORM 17 - 13th 6.4L ($12)
Found a favourable forward position from an inside barrier. Seemed to cop an elbow or something from Chad Schofield on Harlem, is steadied off the heels of Jon Snow and spooked by him again after he props. Big meh at the finish.

BONNEVAL 7 - 14th 8.1L ($8)
INFERENCE 12 - 15th 8.6L ($26)
They were the final pair and not a hope.

SIR ISAAC NEWTON 20 - 17th 20.1L ($71)
Suicide.


Biased towards the front runners. Marmelo was pretty much the only one who ran well and contrary to the pattern. If Boom Time has taught us anything.... Will be difficult to win a Melbourne Cup from worse than midfield though.
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  #94  
Old Yesterday, 12:49 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Marmelo

4yo b h 22/03/2013
Duke Of Marmalade - Capriolla (GB) (In The Wings (GB))

11s: 3-4-1
So, here's the winner of this year's Melbourne Cup

I wrote earlier of my pedigree statistics-related cropping of the Melbourne Cup nominees, using "good" runs of previous runners to determine the 99% confidence interval across a number of categories. The only runners left within each of those intervals were: Marmelo, Red Cardinal, Assign, Annus Mirabilis and Jon Snow. From there it's a matter of determining whether their handicap is too much for them to overcome, or their form isn't good enough, etc. (Note that Almandin wasn't included as he is a bit of an outlier; it's a matter of opinion as to whether he's excluded because the 2016 race was run to suit, the field has changed characteristics, his handicap was waaay to light, the model is just plain no good, etc).

Of those, it was hard to knock Marmelo. As evajb001 stated, he ticks a number of boxes: 4-6 years old, in the market, good record at the distance, lead-up run in Australia (planned, at that stage), and so on.

If you were looking at race times, you'd be pretty happy as well. His last race in Europe, a victory in the Prix de Kergolay, was run in the fastest time for over 30 years. The race before that was the 2800m Prix Maurice De Nieuil (2nd 1.25L); I could only find times since 2011, but this year's was at least 2 seconds quicker than the next fastest. Similar story in the 3000m Prix De Barbeville (1st 2.5L), quickest time since 2009 that I could find. In fact, his only "failure" in this season of racing was a 5th placing (by 1.25L) in the Yorkshire Cup: a race that was pretty middling in terms of race time.

His Dosage Profile is (4-2-21-10-1), which has Points Across The Board (i.e. a figure in each category) and a Dosage Total greater than 20 (indicating quality breeding). Dosage Index = 0.77 and Centre of Distribution = -0.05. Around 2400m is best, by that measure. Conduit Mare Profile is (5-7-1-12-6). Speed/Stamina split of 12/18. Conduit Index = 0.72 and Triads (13-20-19). It says perhaps around the same distance (though it's all a bit of a fudge, if you ask me).

His record disagrees with that estimate, with his best performances at 3000m+ (4s: 2w/2p). Last Saturday's Caulfield Cup was only his first G1 race though. His G2 record is 4s: 1w/2p and 1 of those placings was a 8 lengths behind. He's only had 11 career starts and while he looks very promising, the runs aren't on the board yet.

I listened to an interview with one of his trainer's staff here: http://media.skyracing.com.au/POD/57/jDfm61.mp3 According to him the travel didn't knock him around, he was responding well to track-based training (usually they do hill gallops), and Marmelo is a very relaxed horse. He also said that he's flexible with settling position, that it was just the circumstances of the race that saw him leading for much of the Kergolay.

Barrier draw aside, he's looking pretty good. His final European race was outstanding. His first race in Australia was an eye-catcher against the track bias. Would prefer to settle a little closer to the pace, though the slightly longer Flemington straight will also assist. A slowly run race wouldn't - though I doubt we'll see that. There are some queries at the grade, I suppose, but he deserves to be at the top of the market.

Last edited by walkermac : Yesterday at 12:51 AM.
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  #95  
Old Yesterday, 08:36 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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I'm disappointed with myself that I only had multi's going into Marmelo for the cup when the odds were $15. Had a bunch of multi's using Johannes Vermeer, Harlem and Ventura Storm in the caulfield cup all rolling into Marmelo with varying payouts of $8,000 to $15,000 if they'd won. Instead i'm left feeling a bit silly now as none of those could salute and i've missed the $15 odds.

I think over the next couple of weeks i'll keep placing some multi's rolling into marmelo as it really is the standout pick for me at the moment. The only thing i'd like to see is it go around in one more race if there's something that suits in leadup to the melb cup as majority of horses that win the cup have 4,000 - 9,000 metres of actual race fitness, marmelo only has 2,400 as at today.

I haven't gone through the stats of every horse with a fine tooth comb, mainly only the ones that meet the general melb cup criteria, but Marmelo was the only one that essentially had wins beyond 2,400m. After reading walkermac's details on times overseas in those long distance races that gives me somewhat more confidence (if thats possible) as I remember back when Americain won the cup it had similarly been one of the few with long distance wins at good times.
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  #96  
Old Yesterday, 12:30 PM
horsewithnoname horsewithnoname is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
BOOM TIME * - 1st 1.2L ($51)
Yet to pass the first clause coming into the Caulfield Cup but now wins a ballot exemption for the big dance. The only runner in the leading bunch that was still in the finish of the Herbert Power last week. That showed Boom Time was in good form, along with the race prior: finishing only 1.75L behind Jon Snow in the JRA Cup. He dropped 4kg from that race; Jon Snow dropped 4.5kg....and was a quarter the price today on what we know is a less-preferred surface for him. Even his benchmark rating is only 1.5kg less than Jon Snow and today he was carrying 2.5kg less. Back in April Boom Time won a 2425m race at Caulfield after leading all the way and carrying 60kg. It was all there that he should have been $10-$12 at most!!!! ...so long as you discounted all the other conflicting information Straight to the fence towards the front and put to sleep. Came wider at the top of the straight and Humidor fortuitously blocked him from going wider still. Turned inside instead and found an uncontested line to the finish. A horse in good form with luck in running (and - as many argued throughout the day - in the right place on a track with a leader bias).

Boom Time has been penalised 1kg, taking his Melbourne Cup weight to 53kg.
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  #97  
Old Yesterday, 02:08 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Nominations for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup were announced this afternoon (superscripts are their position in the Melbourne Cup order of entry as of today, full list here: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/f...er-october-23rd)

ABBEY MARIE 30
ANNUS MIRABILIS 32
AUVRAY 43
BIG DUKE 22
CISMONTANE *
COOL CHAP 30
COUNT DA VINCI 41
FROZEN ASSET
GALLANTE 23
HARLEM 34
LIBRAN 24
LIZZIE L’AMOUR 31
MAX DYNAMITE 16
NOZOMI
PENTATHLON 39
QEWY 25
SLY ROMANCE
SUDDEN MOMENT
VENGEUR MASQUE 45
VIOLATE 30
WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 15

Acceptances for this and the Cox Plate must be declared by Wednesday morning. You'd imagine a few of them would drop out after runs in the Caulfield Cup and Geelong Cup. Perhaps of most interest is the return of Max Dynamite and Qewy. Big Duke is also back in Melbourne after success in Sydney racing.


Speaking of the Geelong Cup and acceptances, here they are for Wednesday's race:
GALLANTE 23
LIZZIE L’AMOUR 31
BERISHA 37
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN 44
GREY LION
FANATIC 40
VENGEUR MASQUE 45
KELLSTORM 46
SETTLER’S STONE
VIOLATE
WHEAL LEISURE
KAWABATA

Gallic Chieftan is the $3.50 favourite courtesy of his 3rd placing in the Herbert Power (or, more to the point, Boom Time's 4th placing in the same race - though it was set up for swoopers). Grey Lion was close second in this race last year and is the only leader in the field (along with wet track specialist Gallante). Led for much of the Cranbourne Cup in his last race before being shaded by Folkswood and Berisha from backmarker.

At best Lizzie L'Amour could jump a couple of spots, otherwise it's not going to do anyone else enough favours, unless there are huge dropouts in the Cup.
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  #98  
Old Yesterday, 02:33 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Saw this on twitter:



Looks like they're not fussed about getting a lead-up run Quoted elsewhere: "We’re very happy with him and we are very comfortable with the decision not to run him at Caulfield."


Red Cardinal also has a new jockey. Ryan Moore is off and Kerrin McEvoy is on (due to schedule clash).
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