I concur gentlemen. This thread is EXCEPTIONAL.

Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Cheers, fellas


A new Order of Entry came out yesterday: https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...ry-september-23 (and was linked from Racing Victoria's Spring Feature Race Conditions page, so no need to stalk their Twitter: https://www.racingvictoria.com.au/t...ture-conditions).


Django Freedman is the only horse to have officially withdrawn so far, but more are on the way. Foremost of these is 2017 Cup placegetter Johannes Vermeer, who was also announced to be missing this Spring through injury.


There was a little movement in the Order:

• Buckhurst has passed the first ballot clause and rockets to #26 following his placing in the Kilternan Stakes.

• Attention Run and Our Candidate take up positions #93 and #94 respectively following their placings in the Newcastle Cup

Brimham Rocks didn't earn a penalty for his Naturalism Stakes win, though he did win ballot exemption for the Caulfield Cup. This leaves him currently at 75th in the Order and unlikely to make the Melbourne Cup field unless he wins either the Bart Cummings (5th Oct - unlikely as he's nominated for the Metropolitan in Sydney on the same day), Caulfield Cup (19th Oct), or Lexus Stakes (2nd Nov).

Finche similarly didn't gain a penalty for his win in the Kingston Town Stakes: being only 2000m, it wasn't an eligible race.

No overseas runners gained a weight penalty either, which will buoy supporters of Il Paradiso, Ispolini and Magic Wand, among others. Horses of this ilk will have to enter quarantine on Thursday to make the second shipment of internationals. The first shipment is set to arrive this Saturday.


Among them will be Gold Mount who recently had to process a name change with Racing Australia. He was still registered under his old name Primitivo.


Caliburn is also now known as Te Akau Caliburn. His owners are confident that he'll be a strong candidate for the Cups next year but are having a throw at the stumps in 2019. He's anticipated to next run in the Bart Cummings for a ballot exemption.


In major scratching news: Taylor Swift. Initially announced as Melbourne Cup Day entertainment, she soon withdrew citing a scheduling conflict. There was certainly some conflict in social media where she was part of a targeted campaign from both her fans with concerns over racing and gambling, as well as by animal rights activists. Racing Victoria have said they will refund any ticket purchases made expressly to see Swift.

Sportsbet have a market for who will be announced as her replacement: the $3 favourite is Daryl Braithwaite with John Farnham ($4), Delta Goodrem ($5.50), Meat Loaf ($7), the winner of The Masked Singer Australia ($8.50) and Jimmy Barnes ($10) being the other frontrunners.


In other entertainment news: Ride Like A Girl, the story of Michelle Payne's career and her win in the 2015 Melbourne Cup with 100-1 shot Prince of Penzance, will open in cinemas Thursday.

If you do happen to go watch, check to see if your theatre is part of the My Cinema network (https://mycinema.com.au/locations-2/). They've a competition running where you can win $5000: https://fs2.formsite.com/MyCinema/r...girl/index.html


Raheen House will have an Australian run ahead of the Melbourne Cup, per his trainer William Haggas. Plan A is the Caulfield Cup but, if he weren't able to make the final field, the Geelong Cup 4 days later is the backup. Raheen House was the $6 favourite in the Ebor Cup but could only manage a 9th placing 7L adrift of Mustajeer. Haggas says that he was lacking early pace which saw him running too far back. He also had concerns that the ground may have been too quick.


First declarations are due next Tuesday on 1st October, after which I'll probably start on some horse profiles.

It looks like the quarantine issue for those making the second shipment won't be determined until shortly before the plane takes off.

From Coolmore comes news that Il Paradiso, Hunting Horn and Magic Wand have entered quarantine BUT they'll use this 2-week quarantine period to determine if/how many of them will actually be coming. Rob Archibald, Coolmore's racing manager and nominations, said a decision could be left to within days of the flight out of Ireland.

Also into quarantine is former Coolmore stayer Southern France who will be looked after by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace on arrival.


Melbourne Cup nominees racing over the next few days:

Wednesday
DIVANATION	YTPFBC	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Wallace Handicap (1630 METRES)
Friday
BIZZWINKLE (NZ)	78	Benalla - Race 9 - 4:35PM Bet365 Benalla Gold Cup (2046 METRES)
HANG MAN (IRE)	YTPFBC	Benalla - Race 9 - 4:35PM Bet365 Benalla Gold Cup (2046 METRES)
DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)	YTPFBC	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
GLORY DAYS (NZ)	39	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
MIDTERM (GB)	79	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
MOSH MUSIC	YTPFBC	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
QAFILA	32	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
SPANISH STEPS (IRE)	YTPFBC	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
SULLY (NZ)	91	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)	90	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
WALL OF FIRE (IRE)	YTPFBC	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
YUCATAN (IRE)	27	The Valley - Race 6 - 9:00PM Ladbrokes JRA Cup (2040 METRES)
Saturday
TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)	YTPFBC	Mornington - Race 4 - 1:55PM Penang Turf Club Trophy (2000 METRES)
EXEMPLAR (IRE)	YTPFBC	Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)
SELF SENSE	82	Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)
VALAC (IRE)	88	Mornington - Race 7 - 3:45PM R.M. Ansett Classic (2400 METRES)
LADY YOUNG	YTPFBC	Morphettville Parks - Race 6 - 4:07PM AAMI Spring Carnival at Morphettville Oct 19 - Nov 5 Handicap (1400 METRES)
BLUE BREEZE (NZ)	80	Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
DABIYR (IRE)	YTPFBC	Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
SCARLET DREAM	51	Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
SWEET THOMAS (GER)	81	Rosehill Gardens - Race 6 - 3:25PM JRA COLIN STEPHEN QUALITY (2400 METRES)
JUST THINKIN'	YTPFBC	Rosehill Gardens - Race 8 - 4:45PM ANTLER GLOAMING STAKES (1800 METRES)
Sunday
HOMESMAN (USA)	7	Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
HUMIDOR (NZ)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
KENEDNA	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
SUPER TITUS (GB)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
TRAP FOR FOOLS	24	Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
YULONG PRINCE (SAF)	54	Caulfield - Race 7 - 4:00PM Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes (1800 METRES)
TARWIN	YTPFBC	Caulfield - Race 9 - 5:00PM Bass Strait Beef Handicap (1400 METRES)

Results from Melbourne Cup nominees the past few days:

Tuesday
RUNAWAY	64	T 1st of 9		W FM	24-Sep-19	1200m Soft6 OPEN-BT
Wednesday
DIVANATION	YTPFBC	12th of 13	6.65L	FLEM	25-Sep-19	1630m Good4 BM78 $50,000	@$4.4
Friday
HANG MAN (IRE)	YTPFBC	1st of 7	0L	BLLA	27-Sep-19	2046m Good3 BLLA CUP $125,000	@$2.05
BIZZWINKLE (NZ)	78	3rd of 7	0.6L	BLLA	27-Sep-19	2046m Good3 BLLA CUP $125,000	@$11
SULLY (NZ)	91	2nd of 9	0.1L	M V	27-Sep-19	2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500	@$9
MOSH MUSIC	YTPFBC	3rd of 9	0.85L	M V	27-Sep-19	2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500	@$4.8
GLORY DAYS (NZ)	39	5th of 9	2.2L	M V	27-Sep-19	2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500	@$15
TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ)	90	6th of 9	3.45L	M V	27-Sep-19	2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500	@$71
YUCATAN (IRE)	27	7th of 9	3.85L	M V	27-Sep-19	2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500	@$6
WALL OF FIRE (IRE)	YTPFBC	8th of 9	4.6L	M V	27-Sep-19	2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500	@$31
MIDTERM (GB)	79	9th of 9	6.85L	M V	27-Sep-19	2040m Good3 JRA CUP Group 3 $201,500	@$51
PATRICK ERIN (NZ)	49	T 9th of 9		RAND	27-Sep-19	1045m Good4 OPEN-BT
Saturday
VALAC (IRE)	88	1st of 8	0L	MORN	28-Sep-19	2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000	@$4
EXEMPLAR (IRE)	YTPFBC	2nd of 8	0.5L	MORN	28-Sep-19	2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000	@$9
SELF SENSE	82	5th of 8	6.2L	MORN	28-Sep-19	2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000	@$19
DOUGLAS MACARTHUR (IRE)	YTPFBC	8th of 8	8.3L	MORN	28-Sep-19	2400m Good4 H WHITE Listed $140,000	@$3.4
TAVISTOCK DANCER (NZ)	YTPFBC	3rd of 7	1.8L	MORN	28-Sep-19	2000m Good4 BM70 $50,000	@$4.8
LADY YOUNG	YTPFBC	7th of 9	2.3L	MRPK	28-Sep-19	1400m Good4 MARES BM75 $50,000	@$2.5
DABIYR (IRE)	YTPFBC	4th of 9	4.1L	RHIL	28-Sep-19	2400m Good4 CSTEPHEN Group 3 $161,000	@$2.6
BLUE BREEZE (NZ)	80	9th of 9	41L	RHIL	28-Sep-19	2400m Good4 CSTEPHEN Group 3 $161,000	@$41
JUST THINKIN'	YTPFBC	4th of 12	4.5L	RHIL	28-Sep-19	1800m Good4 GLOAMING Group 3 $201,000	@$3.2
Sunday
HOMESMAN (USA)	7	2nd of 12	0.2L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000	@$2.5
TRAP FOR FOOLS	24	7th of 12	3.15L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000	@$61
YULONG PRINCE (SAF)	54	8th of 12	3.55L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000	@$41
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	YTPFBC	9th of 12	3.95L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000	@$9.5
HUMIDOR (NZ)	YTPFBC	10th of 12	4.35L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000	@$26
SUPER TITUS (GB)	YTPFBC	11th of 12	7.1L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000	@$41
KENEDNA	YTPFBC	12th of 12	7.85L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1800m Good3 UNDERWOOD Group 1 $752,000	@$19
QAFILA	32	5th of 11	3.35L	CAUL	29-Sep-19	1700m Good4 HCP $125,000	@$4

The number listed is as per the latest Order of Entry. First declarations are due on Tuesday.

The first shipment of Europeans arrived this weekend, including Melbourne Cup nomineees:
Mirage Dancer⁹
Constantinople¹¹
Mustajeer¹⁵
Red Verdon³³
Raymond Tusk³⁴
Gold Mount³⁵
Torcedor⁴²
Prince of Arran⁴⁸
True Self⁵³
Raheen House⁵⁵
Red Galileo⁵⁶
Haky⁷¹
Cape Of Good Hope^YTPFBC


On Tuesday, arriving from Japan are:
Lys de Gracieux²
Mer De Glace^YTPFBC


The second wave of internationals are in quarantine and set for arrival on October 12th:
Cross Counter⁴
Marmelo⁶
Southern France⁸
Master Of Reality¹⁰
Il Paradiso¹²
Latrobe¹³
Ispolini¹⁸
Magic Wand²⁰
Hunting Horn²¹
Twilight Payment²²
Downdraft⁴⁷
Norway⁷⁴


That means that there is NO:
Kew Gardens³
Dashing Willoghby²³
Technician²⁵
Buckhurst²⁶
Morando²⁸
Desert Skyline⁵⁰
Barsanti⁷²
Stivers⁷⁶
Bin Battuta⁸⁵
Western Australia⁸⁹
Meiner Wunsch^YTPFBC
Mountain Hunter^YTPFBC
Eminence^YTPFBC
Mount Everest^YTPFBC
South Pacific^YTPFBC

Down to 79 horses following First Acceptances:
https://cdn.racing.com/-/media/rv/2...1st-acceptances

Correction: Racing Victoria made a mistake.

There's actually 80 left after First Acceptances: The Good Fight was omitted in error.

Updated First Acceptors list

Updated Order of Entry

walkermac, some of the ones i'll be taking a look at more closely soon include:

Steel Prince
Southern France
Constantinople
Il Paradiso
Ispolini
Raymond Tusk

They appear to be the ones that meet my early criteria the best, not sure if you've got any initial thoughts on those 6 runners. I'm thinking i'll start getting some futures bets on soon and make use of some odds boosts where I can as well. From memory usually a horse or two performs well in one of the leadup races and people get overly excited and sometimes crunch those odds in and they generally fall flat in the big race.

I also noticed there seems to be a lot of horses this year that have run in the melbourne cup previously, which rarely end up winning it a second time around.

To be honest I haven't done enough research for my opinion to hold much weight and I just haven't seen a performance yet that made me sit up and take notice like Cross Counter's Gordon Stakes win last year did, for example, or Rekindling in the Curragh Cup the year prior.

If the race were today and I had to make a snap decision I'd probably be most interested in Ispolini and Finche, then Master of Reality and Constantinople. But I'm prepared to throw them out entirely as I look deeper into each one as intended.

So we have a little bit of crossover with our respective early fancies.

I was very keen on Il Paradiso but find I have to keep making excuses: doubts on the strength of that Lonsdale Cup run (small field, half of them bled, Stradivarius said to only do "enough" for his wins), his unimpressive performance last race, not having won any blacktype... If all the positive presumptions you need to make are true, then he's a great chance for sure though.

I think the Ebor is very good form this year: the prizemoney was increased so the field was stronger and it was run in very fast time, if memory serves. Raymond Tusk was thought to have had an unlucky run but also doesn't have a good head-to-head record against a lot of other Cup candidates currently at longer odds.

Southern France would be challenging, especially given recent performances alongside Master of Reality and Cross Counter but I think is handicapped a kg or two heavier than ideal.

Steel Prince I would like to see against some internationals to line up form with but, with 8 wins locally appears to be pretty well known by the handicapper and much of his success has been during the leaner months of the racing season.

Here are the Melbourne Cup nominees racing across this long weekend. Most attention will be on the Bart Cummings where the winner will earn ballot exemption. Probably the most interesting race though is the Turnbull Stakes.

Saturday
FINCHE (GB)	24	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE)	41	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
LOOKS LIKE ELVIS	YTPFBC	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
MR QUICKIE	23	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
ROSTROPOVICH (IRE)	14	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
SOUND (GER)	35	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
TRAP FOR FOOLS	20	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
VOW AND DECLARE	36	Flemington - Race 7 - 4:25PM TAB Turnbull Stakes (2000 METRES)
ALFARRIS (FR)	YTPFBC	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
AZURO (FR)	56	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
DAL HARRAILD (GB)	48	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
ETYMOLOGY	55	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	62	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
MUNTAHAA (IRE)	22	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	47	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE)	YTPFBC	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
WOLFE (JPN)	YTPFBC	Flemington - Race 8 - 5:05PM Lexus Bart Cummings (2520 METRES)
ANGEL OF TRUTH	12	Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
OUR CENTURY (IRE)	50	Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	16	Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
YOUNGSTAR	32	Royal Randwick - Race 6 - 3:25PM SKY RACING ACTIVE HILL STAKES (2000 METRES)
ATTENTION RUN (GER)	63	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
BIG DUKE (IRE)	31	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB)	52	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR)	46	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
GREY LION (IRE)	49	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
HUSH WRITER (JPN)	58	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
NEUFBOSC (FR)	34	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
PATRICK ERIN (NZ)	39	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SCARLET DREAM	40	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SHRAAOH (IRE)	29	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SIR CHARLES ROAD	45	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
SUPERNOVA (GB)	YTPFBC	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ)	YTPFBC	Royal Randwick - Race 8 - 4:45PM HEINEKEN 3 METROPOLITAN (2400 METRES)
Sunday
BONDEIGER	57	bet365 Bairnsdale - Race 7 - 4:50PM Patties Foods Bairnsdale Cup (1600 METRES)
Monday
FAIRLIGHT (IRE)	YTPFBC	Warwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (2130 METRES)
MASTER OF WINE (GER)	YTPFBC	Warwick Farm - Race 6 - 4:20PM ANZ BLOODSTOCK NEWS HANDICAP (2130 METRES)