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  #1  
Old 2nd September 2006, 11:37 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink Lay

I've been looking at a Lay system but unfortunately have kept no records because I haven't been betting them, but I think every selection has been beaten, so I'll list today's and see what happens.

Rosehill R2 no.5 - Exinite ($3.50 pre-post)
Caulfield R1 no.3 - Juste Momente ($3.20)
Cheltenham R4 no.1 - Mina ($3.20)
Kembla R6 no.2 - Choose To Dream ($2.50)
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  #2  
Old 2nd September 2006, 06:59 PM
YoungBuck YoungBuck is offline
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Any clues on what the system entails? Seem to go O.K today. I have a few lay systems on the go, perhaps we could exchange ideas.
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  #3  
Old 3rd September 2006, 01:14 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Young Buck, I have been using the neurals, so I'm not too confidant.

I delete the "non form-related" categories of BP, WT and DLR as they have no bearing on a horse's race history even though WT does to some degree. The rules are:

1 ) The selection must be $3.50 or less in the pre-post market
2 ) Must not be top or equal-top in two or more of the remaining nine neural categories.
3 ) Every horse in the race must have had at least two starts.

Today the three selections (one was a late scratching) were beaten.

Last edited by michaelg : 3rd September 2006 at 01:31 AM.
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  #4  
Old 3rd September 2006, 08:32 AM
YoungBuck YoungBuck is offline
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Sounds good. Wil be interesting to see how it fares. I personally look at favs with jockeys that have low winning strike rates for that track. That along with DFS ratings where the fav is not top rated, amongst a few other form factors.
I don't think you can be too rigid with rules though. Use the rules to weed out potential lays, but then you must judge each lay on its merits. The number one rule is you must be confident at least one other horse can win. If you are not sure, don't lay. Good luck.
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  #5  
Old 3rd September 2006, 11:32 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Four selections today:

Cranbourne R8 no.4 - Best Pupil $3.00)
Cranbourne R9 no.9 - jezadane ($2.80)
Kalgoorlie R4 no.3 - Ellenbrook ($3.50)
Ballina R3 no.2 - Halle ($3.20).
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  #6  
Old 4th September 2006, 11:48 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Yesterday, one from the four selections won, paying $2.50 (NSW TAB).

To date there have been seven selections for one winner of $2.50. Not a bad start, but as they are solely based on the neurals they will crash sooner or later.

One selection today:
Swan Hill R8 no.1 - Wine Buff ($3.20).
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  #7  
Old 4th September 2006, 05:02 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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michaelg,

The thing is you have the odds on your side by laying so when the neurals crash it will actually benefit you ..: )

Good luck.
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  #8  
Old 5th September 2006, 12:16 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Wesmip1, my concern is that when the neurals, using a certain selection process over a period of time for horses to run well they then lose. So applying the same logic, when the neurals don't favour a horse can we then expect it to win? I hope not, time will tell.

Yesterday's selection was beaten.

To date there have been eight selections for one winner of $2.50.

One selection today:
Mackay R7 no.2 - My Diamond Dan ($2.80).
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  #9  
Old 5th September 2006, 01:03 PM
mv2040 mv2040 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Wesmip1, my concern is that when the neurals, using a certain selection process over a period of time for horses to run well they then lose. So applying the same logic, when the neurals don't favour a horse can we then expect it to win? I hope not, time will tell.
Interseting point, it is a frustrating busines punting! One would have thought that if you were constantly backing favoured horses to win and you were losing, then if you backed favoured horses to lose you must win!

Apparently not!!!!
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  #10  
Old 5th September 2006, 04:29 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Yes, if a system loses, logic would then say to back those horses to lose. But unfortunately the TAB's take-out is so great that it's difficult to bet around the horse and still win.

Betfair is the alternative. But without actually betting, what price would one have backed/layed the selection? If the system continues to perform I'll add a very generous 33% to the TAB divvy and assume that was Betfair's lay price.

As you say, it certainly is a frustrating business. Logic can sometimes be just a fantasy.

Last edited by michaelg : 5th September 2006 at 04:31 PM.
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