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  #1  
Old 8th July 2018, 05:26 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Smile For the Laymen ..... Is there a Race Type effect ?

Had a look AT WSR and TAB AvDiv ...... 8+ starters, MIN TAB div $20.00, all Going.

TYPE..... NOT SAT METRO .............. SAT METRO

MDN...... 1.75% $36.15 ................. 1.89% $34.30
CLASS .. 2.15% $33.46 ................. 1.98% $35.58
Open .... 2.02% $33.32 .................. 1.85% $34.08
WFA ..... 2.12% $34.91 ................. 1.90% $34.77
SW ...... 2.46% $40.25 ................. 1.76% $33.15
HCP ...... 1.98% $33.50 .....................1.88% $35.61
GRP ...... 1.84% $33.50 ................... 1.94% $33.15

Nah. The Price Is Right .... the snag is .... that Betfair Lays are likely to be 2X these odds (at least).
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  #2  
Old 9th July 2018, 09:57 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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What if you layed them in running, using those TAB prices, in the hope they get matched.

What is Kent by "All going" ?
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  #3  
Old 11th July 2018, 06:29 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Demodocus means all track conditions.
And quite rightly he points out that the problem is that they would all be at least 2x the price and quite probably much more than that.
I would not lay them in running, because for sure and certain, these horses will win at a greater percentage if the odds are shorter in running.
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  #4  
Old 11th July 2018, 06:40 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Demodocus means all track conditions.
And quite rightly he points out that the problem is that they would all be at least 2x the price and quite probably much more than that.
I would not lay them in running, because for sure and certain, these horses will win at a greater percentage if the odds are shorter in running.


Yep you are exactly right. You need to be recording prices in running and then testing systems against that if you want to bet/lay in running. Its all guesswork and generally is a losing proposition without numbers to back it up.
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  #5  
Old 13th July 2018, 05:41 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan

What is Kent by "All going" ?


HEAVY, SLOW, DEAD, GOOD, FAST.
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  #6  
Old 13th July 2018, 06:01 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
What is Kent by "All going" ?



"All going" is actually a different type of track. Its meant to drain away the water very quickly so that regardless of the water put on it that it will run the same. In reality its not quite perfect but its close enough.

Its also known as polytrack. If you google polytrack you will find a lot of good resources about it.

Ive read some interesting stories about when they were first introduced the balls used on the tracks would clump up in the hoofs of the horses causing a lot of issues. Its interesting reading and Chrome Prince probably knows a lot more about the surface then I do.
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  #7  
Old 14th July 2018, 06:06 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
What if you layed them in running, using those TAB prices, in the hope they get matched.


Long time no c. :-)

Now we're getting into the realm of "manipulated" results of the Whatever "system".

EG .... Our Systemateer didn't include the LOSER in R6 'cos the Going was Slow, in the results used to sell we didn't include R7 'cos there was a problem behind the gates, we didn't include R2 because the rider wore red underpants .... and now 'we lost 'cos the rider dropped his whip at the 700 or had a bad start or ran out of puff (or sodium bicarbonate) in the last 50 metres.

Lay while 'running' on Betfair is the same disaster as laying outsiders in US races.

Meanwhile ... back at the ranch .... nice to see you again :-)
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  #8  
Old 3rd September 2018, 08:27 AM
kiwi kiwi is offline
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Lightbulb

The races I have most difficulty with and would lay are; maidens, 3yos, any female only, group 3 and distances beyond 1600m.
Try laying those I eliminated them some time ago as abject failures and my ROI soared.
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  #9  
Old 4th September 2018, 12:29 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Thanks demodocus.
Nice to see me to.
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