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  #121  
Old 6th November 2018, 06:48 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
That rain looks heavy.

Going to need a light weight to win today if it keeps up raining and you need to be somewhere to the front of the field, I doubt anyone will run on strongly.


and :


Quote:
Position Number Name Trainer Jockey Margin Barrier Weight Price
1 23 CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie Appleby Kerrin McEvoy 19 51kg $9
2 9 MARMELO (GB) Hughie Morrison Hugh Bowman 1L 10 55kg $12
3 17 A PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie Fellowes Michael Walker 3L 20 53kg $23
4 13 FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller Zac Purton 3.5L 15 54kg $26
5 24 ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) Aidan O'Brien Wayne Lordan 4.5L 21 51kg $21
6 22 YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller Craig Williams 5.75L 8 51.5kg $11
7 19 SIR CHARLES ROAD Lance O'Sullivan & Andrew Scott Dwayne Dunn 8.25L 14 53kg $101



The top 7 places were filled by horses with horses on the lower end of the weights (high TAB numbers).

I did ok. With the rain I amended the tips I gave to people and took cross counter as my best bet. Followed this up with another 8 horses and combined we got the trifecta and first four. Lots of happy people around the place today and it all comes down to the tremendous effort which walkermac puts into this thread.

A big thank you from me.
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  #122  
Old 6th November 2018, 08:56 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
I posted that 2 weeks ago. I could have put my feet up since! Latrobe didn't make the race but the others finished 1st, 2nd, 5th and 4th. I think on the Youngstar profile I wrote that she'd finished 4th-6th as well! I've been a strong supporter of Cross Counter since his Goodwood run in mid-August.

Unfortunately I ran out of time to do profiles on 4 horses and two of those finished 3rd and 7th. A Prince of Arran got shuffled towards the end of the queue, as I figured he'd be tired after running on Saturday.

I made some money. I tipped the winner to my Dad again and have really put the pressure on myself given I've done it a few years in a row now.

Looking forward to all the data coming out of the race.

Well done walkermac.
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  #123  
Old 6th November 2018, 09:07 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Here are the final runners using the tally system developed last year. Those highlighted in yellow have a Conduit Mare Stamina figure of 17. A horse with such a figure has won 10 of the past 11 Melbourne Cups (missing out in 2010 on a Slow track) but only comprised 25% of all runners. ....who knows?

(It was done by hand so check the working first if it prompts you to bet)


The winner was one highlighted in yellow and the first 4 came from the top 7 rated horses. Great stuff walkermac.
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  #124  
Old 7th November 2018, 04:26 PM
NitroPunter NitroPunter is offline
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My vote for Thread of the Year
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  #125  
Old 7th November 2018, 07:38 PM
jose jose is offline
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  #126  
Old 7th November 2018, 08:17 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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He puts so much effort in to this thread, does an awsome job
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  #127  
Old 7th November 2018, 10:46 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Cheers for the kudos guys

From my Cross Counter profile:
Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
[The benchmark weight per the Cup conditions for a 4YO gelding is 58kg but Northern Hemisphere-bred 4YOs are allowed 2.5kg, leaving 55.5kg as their highest possible weight. The handicapper is arguably still lenient when assigning the weights to this type of horse though: no European 4YO nominee was initially given a handicap greater than 53kg. Two such horses earned a weight penalty by the time the Order of Entry was released, with the biggest at the time going to Flag of Honour (1.5kg). If the Europeans can find a quality early-maturing 3YO they might slip under the handicapper's guard.
An article in the SMH herald picked up on this: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing...107-p50elr.html. Excerpt:

Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter studies the results closer than any man, given he is responsible for allocating Cup weights - and he will now review how he looks at the burdens he gives northern hemisphere three year olds.

''It will cause me to rethink how I look at their form and handicap them in the future. It will mean that I go back and look at their lead up races and as we get more of these horses running we will have more data to judge them on.''
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  #128  
Old 7th November 2018, 10:52 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here are the extra distances each horse ran by drawn barriers:



Combining the two years' worth of data now:
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