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  #61  
Old 26th October 2020, 10:52 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Couldn't help myself:


Who has the lucky number 17?




Repeat thread readers (firstly: apologies for how lame it's been this year) would know about the number 17 factor. About one quarter of Cup runners share this feature BUT 10 of the last 12 winners had it. (Last year's didn't; the 2 races where it failed over that period were also the 2 slowest - no coincidence). I am, of course, talking about each runner's Conduit Mare Stamina figure. Way too complicated to go into just what that is here; if you're interested seek the "Is Dosage bunkum?" thread.

The lucky number 17 runners after third acceptances are:
AVILIUS7
SURPRISE BABY16
MIAMI BOUND20
STEEL PRINCE22
ASHRUN29
SCHABAU40

So it looks like four will make the final field, unless there are any scratchings or Hotham winners among them. Surprise Baby and Schabau are the only ones who are also on the top two rungs of 'the system' ladder currently. Can we call Surprise Baby the winner yet?
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  #62  
Old 27th October 2020, 08:30 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I was going to ask about the dosage when the final field was declared. Thanks for providing it earlier. Based on those with it:

AVILIUS - Not enough of the other factors to be considered a contender.
SURPRISE BABY - This stat brings this horse back into my list of contenders.
MIAMI BOUND - A total of 7 might have this one just edge in my selections given the dosage.
STEEL PRINCE - same as Miami bound. It may or may not get into my selection list after only scoring 7 in the total column.
ASHRUN- If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders.
SCHABAU-If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders.

Really looking forward to the final 24 and seeing the table of points.

I think the winning horse will have a score of 8 or higher. But I am willing to stretch it down to 7 if there are compelling reasons. Half the field currently has at least a score of 7 or higher if I counted right.
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  #63  
Old 28th October 2020, 08:59 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Cup nominees racing today:

Bendigo - Race 7 - 4:00PM Apiam Bendigo Cup (2400 METRES)

ZEBROWSKI (NZ) 25$5.50
HAKY (IRE) 37$26
PONDUS (GB) 39$5
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE) 43=$6.50

If Zebrowski wins, the prizemoney should get him into 23rd in the Order of Entry. The rest will need to get at least a 1.5kg penalty to get into the field. They're all nominated for the Hotham and I had anticipated them going there instead (like Lord Belvedere and Azuro have). Scratchings closed a couple of hours ago, so it looks like they may have given up on the Melbourne Cup. I guess it only cost them $3k for their third declaration...
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  #64  
Old 28th October 2020, 11:58 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Results from today. Looks like Zebrowski will now need a couple to drop out to get a start. The remainder look like they've done their dash.


2400m Good4 BDGO CUP Group 3 $400,000

HorseOrderPlacePrice
PONDUS (GB) 392nd of 15$3.8
HAKY (IRE) 373rd of 15$12
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE) 43=4th of 15$5.5
ZEBROWSKI (NZ) 255th of 15$6
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  #65  
Old 31st October 2020, 04:14 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Results from the Hotham Stakes today. The winner is into the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.


2500m Good4 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $201,300

HorseOrderPlacePrice
ASHRUN (FR) 281st of 10$5.5
SOUND (GER)322nd of 10$7.5
FUTURE SCORE (IRE) 42=3rd of 10$12
CARIF 355th of 10$10
SCHABAU (GER) 396th of 10$4.8
ADMIRE ROBSON (JPN) 42=7th of 10$5
AZURO (FR) 338th of 10$81
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ) 279th of 10$51
HUSH WRITER (JPN) 2910th of 10$21
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  #66  
Old 31st October 2020, 04:45 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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I've mentioned this Cup System over the last few years and it picked last year's winner. It's "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports:

Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day)
Verry Elleegant, Anthony Van Dyck, The Chosen One

Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Miami Bound, Oceanex

Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
Vow And Declare, Prince Of Arran

Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner
Ashrun

Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
Goodbye: The Chosen One

Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.
Goodbye: Prince Of Arran


So per this system, the winner comes from: Verry Elleegant, Anthony Van Dyck, Miamia Bound, Oceanex, Vow And Declare, and Ashrun.

There must be some doubt regarding Vow And Declare there, back-to-back winners are kinda rare...

Note also that it doesn't account for debuting foreign runners, which was considered a bit of a negative thing for a while, but is well and truly not as great an issue now. The only eligible debuting international this year though is Tiger Moth. Stratum Albium is out due to Rule 6. Both Master Of Reality - arguably, I guess - and Twilight Payment are omitted due to Rule 5.
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  #67  
Old 31st October 2020, 04:52 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here is the average extra distance each barrier runs (based on the last 3 years since information has been publicly available):






I posted the below in the 2018 thread regarding barriers and it seemed to work out somewhat last year as well:

Since 2000:

First
<=B15: 83.33%
>B15: 16.67%

Top 2
<=B15: 83.33%
>B15: 16.67%

Top 3
<=B15: 81.48%
>B15: 18.52%

Top 4
<=B15: 81.94%
>B15: 18.06%

Were it random chance, going by the average field size over the past 18 editions (excluding those who didn't complete the race), it should be:
<=B15: 66.17%
>B15: 33.83%

5th position is where the outer barrier's results start to catch up to expectation. For those finishing exactly 5th, it's 50-50 whether they were drawn outside barrier 15 these past 18 years.

5th-7th: those in outside barriers are over-represented
<=B15: 55.46%
>B15: 44.44%

8th-14th: it seems to swing back
<=B15: 72.22%
>B15: 27.88%

remainder: and back again
<=B15: 56.41%
>B15: 43.52%

Does it go in the placings: good inside horses over-represented, then good outside horses over-represented, then dodgy inside horses over-represented, then dodgy outside horses over-represented?


What kind of outside-drawn horses overcome their misfortune and finish top-4? The 3 winners within the sample were <= 52kg. 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were also <= $21 despite their draw.

Of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminates 99 candidates and misses 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). Weight <= 54kg elimates a further 12 for no further top-4 misses.

The above might help with some borderline First-4 selections after the barrier draw...
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  #68  
Old 31st October 2020, 05:10 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Barrier draw:


HorseBarrierWeight
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)154.5kg
MUSTAJEER (GB) 255kg
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) 358.5kg
VOW AND DECLARE 457kg
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 553.5kg
FINCHE (GB) 654.5kg
SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 754.5kg
WARNING 853kg
STRATUM ALBION (GB)955kg
AVILIUS (GB) 1057kg
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 1156kg
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 1255.5kg
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 1351kg
SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 1455.5kg
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 1555.5kg
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 1653.5kg
OCEANEX (NZ) 1751.5kg
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) 1853.5kg
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) 1954.5kg
PERSAN 2051kg
STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 2153.5kg
ETAH JAMES (NZ) 2252.5kg
TIGER MOTH (IRE) 2352.5kg
ASHRUN (FR) 2453kg
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  #69  
Old 31st October 2020, 05:16 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here are the results of "the system". NB - price movements will have to be monitored up until racetime to be fully accurate. Top two runs seem to do pretty well. Those with a 17 Stamina figure are also noted.



HorseTotalLess than 8yoWgt < 57kgNot a mare<= $21 SP< $16 in lastWgtd < than in lastFS in last >= 10Won Black Type<=3L in last<6 victories
SIR DRAGONET (IRE) 101111111111
SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 17101111111111
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE) 101111111111
ASHRUN (FR) 17101111111111
TIGER MOTH (IRE) 101111111111
FINCHE (GB) 91111101111
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 81110110111
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) 81110110111
PERSAN 81110111110
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE) 71011101110
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 71101101110
STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 1771110110110
OCEANEX (NZ) 71100111110
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 1771100011111
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 60110110110
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB) 61110001101
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)60111001110
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 61110001110
WARNING 61110001101
AVILIUS (GB) 1751010001110
VOW AND DECLARE 51010001101
MUSTAJEER (GB) 50110001101
STRATUM ALBION (GB)50110110010
ETAH JAMES (NZ) 40100011100
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  #70  
Old 1st November 2020, 01:29 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I beleive this year it will be won by one of the horses with 8 or higher. That leaves us with 9 selections.

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)
ASHRUN (FR)
TIGER MOTH (IRE)
FINCHE (GB)
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)
PERSAN

Based on these I would eliminate the following usiong the barrier:

ASHRUN
RUSSIAN CAMELOT
TIGER MOTH
KING OF LEOGRANCE
PERSAN

I would eliminate the following due to odds :

KING OF LEOGRANCE
PERSAN

I would remove the following from failing in previous Melb Cup attempts:

MASTER OF REALITY (Came 4th last year)
SURPRISE BABY (Came 5th last year)
FINCHE (Came 7th last year, 4th the year before)

I could almost be forgivable of the above rule this year due to COVID.

So what do we have left:

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)

If we include those who ran previously in a melbourne cup unplaced we are down to 4 horses:


SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
SURPRISE BABY
MASTER OF REALITY
FINCHE

My order of preference is :

Sire Dragonet
Suprise baby
Master of Reality

I'll risk Finche not be included after 2 failures already in the cup.

I am looking forward to seeing what others think.
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