Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #11  
Old 26th April 2018, 11:46 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,586
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by midas
Hi

Yes I did get carried away with my long term results and staking plan was not conservative enough. Problem... too conservative not much profit ....too rash , profit with high risk which will get you in the end.

I am 81 and my first system was at age 13........Sat. Sydney Meetings...any horse that has won in the last 7 days.

I have dabbled with systems over the years but probably have not greatly improved.

May I give my congratulations to any who have devised a mechanical system, with level stakes profit and survivable losing runs over a long period of time. I am still trying for the golden chalice but one day..........



I think staking evolves with the punter. I will explain this from my experiences so you can understand what I am talking about.

I only believe in loss chasing staking at a small bank level to get you going. It should only be used at a level where you can replace your bank if it gets wiped out. I always use a percentage staking plan (fixed percentage of the maximum the bank has even been).

If you have a small bank you need to be maximising your returns. You should use a higher staking percentage to grow your bank. For example if your bank is only $1000 and staking 1% then making 50% returns in a year (which is a realistic and achievable target) will only return $500. Thats not enough to live on or really even enjoy. You probably need to increase your risk level to 3%-5% (depending on your edge and strike rate) so you can build the bank quicker so you can go professional. Lets face it $1000 is not enough to be a professional punter. At this level you can use moderately risky chasing staking plans. These increase your profits in the short term but increase the risk of getting wiped out.

As your bank grows to $10,000-$50,000 you are now probably going to want to be a bit more conservative. You are likely to only go 1.5%-3% so that you start to make reasonable returns. At this level you are going to start to hit some mental pain points. Your focus will start to move from how much profit can I make to how much that latest drawdown is hurting you mentally. Trust me from personal experience it starts to get really frustrating when your down $5000 on a $50,000 bank. This is the time that really tests a punter mentally and builds your confidence in your systems or your handicapping. You must be winning on level stakes to make this level work as you do not want to be using a progressive staking plan.

As your bank grows from $50,000 - $200,000 you will start to work on pushing your thresholds and pain points with losses. As a percentage of your bank, it should be smaller and you will likely be betting < 1% of your bank. You will only focus on losing now and not care about the winning weeks. All of your effort focuses on how to ensure you minimise your drawdown as when you lose $15K you start imagining what that could have been spent on in the real world like a nice holiday.

Once you get up to $200,000 and higher you start to lighten up as your betting is no longer a mental issue but a logistical issue. You are now betting at a percentage of your bank which is likely 0.1% -0.3%. The risk of a losing run wiping you out at this taking level is almost impossible. Your problem is how to get on the required money on each bet.

Once you reach the last level of $200,000 even if you make 50% that is a 100K profit in the year tax free (seek your own tax advice). 50% profits in a year is very achievable on the starting bank for the year (not on turnover). Its only a profit of 4% a month.

Quote:
My guess would be 0.01% have a long term winning system.


I have lots of systems which are long term winners. The difference on my systems to the public's systems is that mine are mine target the right selections in the right races at the right odds against the right competition.

As I have said before if you can not collect data yourself by programming then you are at a big disadvantage compared to me. Your better off handicapping and beating me on a race by race basis where you put in the hard work then trying to win over lots of races using some form of system/rules.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 26th April 2018, 12:01 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 103
Default

A great insight into your success.

I think the important point you made was your ability in programming which is integral to your systems.

Mugs like myself who lack this skill have to find another way to find success. I have a number of successful systems but I am still at the lower level bank where I do wonder sometimes if the paltry returns are worth it. A $200K bank would make them very satisfactory!

Something to aspire to.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 27th April 2018, 06:06 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,586
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
I think the important point you made was your ability in programming which is integral to your systems.

Mugs like myself who lack this skill have to find another way to find success. I have a number of successful systems but I am still at the lower level bank where I do wonder sometimes if the paltry returns are worth it. A $200K bank would make them very satisfactory!

Something to aspire to.


Totally agree. One of my advantages is I can program. This allows me access to scale out and find small edges over lots of races. If you can not program then don't compete with me for the small edges.

My biggest advantage though is the time I put into trying to make a profit vs what other punters do. I would easily spend 30+ hours every week on punting related activities, such as data analysis, watching races or replays, handicapping, etc. That would be a conservative figure and I probably spend closer to 45-50 hours a week on it. I find it interesting and exciting and am dedicated to it. If the average punter puts in maybe only 2-5 hours a week they are unlikely to have the same knowledge I do.

If I couldn't program I would handicap races instead and maybe concentrate on 1-2 midweek each day and then 5-6 races on Saturday and Sunday. I would try and make sure I knew the race better then anyone else and make my picks accordingly. This would either be by dutching multiple runners or laying the best options. I would aim to not lose money on more than 1 in 1000 races. I believe the best edge is not to find the winner but its to find all of the possible winners and bet them in a way to make a profit.

To make 50% a year you only need to make 1% a week. To make 1% a week you only need to find 3 horses a week (thats not a lot of horses) which are priced on betfair at $100 - $300 that lose. Could you find 3 horses a week that you think will lose in that price range ? or 3 races a week where you can see the clear winners returning more than 0.3% profit? I know I could do it with dedicated handicapping. It takes time to find the right selections as I see a lot go off at $100-$300 which really have a reasonable chance so you jut need to be able to eliminate those ones.

Punting profits are achievable to everyone... you just need to be the hardest working person on the race to find the right selections.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 27th April 2018, 07:01 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 187
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
To make 50% a year you only need to make 1% a week. To make 1% a week you only need to find 3 horses a week (thats not a lot of horses) which are priced on betfair at $100 - $300 that lose. Could you find 3 horses a week that you think will lose in that price range ? or 3 races a week where you can see the clear winners returning more than 0.3% profit? I know I could do it with dedicated handicapping. It takes time to find the right selections as I see a lot go off at $100-$300 which really have a reasonable chance so you jut need to be able to eliminate those ones.


Coupla thoughts. You're playing with 'risk' capital so you want to recover your investment/bank as soon as possible, withdraw it and then play with OPM. To do this then you need to make 100%+ FAST ..... what happens after that is up to you. Your strategy needs to be to take risks, make it quick early and then settle down into comfy retirement. Trying to make it slowly only exposes you to more risk. A recent trial of an approach I was trialling 21st Feb to 4th April doubled the bank, allowed me to withdraw my 'investment' and of this morning (0630) I was up 226% on my original (now withdrawn) bank.
You see, the problem with $200 BF Lays is that they DO occasionally win ... +/- 2% fer no partickler reason .... and so do $30 Lays as happened this morning to me at Chelmsford, costing some $500. :-( Into every life a little rain must fall.
As Baden-Powell said "Be Prepared".

The key to it all is PLAY WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 27th April 2018, 10:47 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,586
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Coupla thoughts. You're playing with 'risk' capital so you want to recover your investment/bank as soon as possible, withdraw it and then play with OPM. To do this then you need to make 100%+ FAST ..... what happens after that is up to you. Your strategy needs to be to take risks, make it quick early and then settle down into comfy retirement. Trying to make it slowly only exposes you to more risk. A recent trial of an approach I was trialling 21st Feb to 4th April doubled the bank, allowed me to withdraw my 'investment' and of this morning (0630) I was up 226% on my original (now withdrawn) bank.
You see, the problem with $200 BF Lays is that they DO occasionally win ... +/- 2% fer no partickler reason .... and so do $30 Lays as happened this morning to me at Chelmsford, costing some $500. :-( Into every life a little rain must fall.
As Baden-Powell said "Be Prepared".

The key to it all is PLAY WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.


Good advice for those with small banks that are happy with risk. I started with $100. If people can't make a profit on a bank that size then they have no right to bet a bigger bank.

Yes $200 lays do win but I also see a reason for them winning when I review the form. Its generally right there in plain sight when your handicapping. Its not obvious when your using a system. I know I could easily go 1000 selections winning streak if I handicap a race and believe a $200 shot will lose. That may not be the case for a new punter though as they need to learn what really constitutes a $200 lay.

While for the average punter the "PLAY WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE" is a good idea, but I actually think its a terrible idea if you want to do this professionally. When your a professional you can not afford to lose as its your income. It opens you to bad habits which you just can't do when your betting large amounts. I took the other approach which was it was money I couldn't afford to lose because it meant I would have to give up punting. I staked $100 and vowed that was the only money I was ever going to put in. I have never put in more money and never will. I was always looking at ensuring I never risked a ruin event. This has taught me well in allowing me to now manage my larger banks in exactly the same way. I know I am profitable and all I need to do is manage my risk accordingly to ensure I continue through the inevitable losing runs.

Its a different way at looking at it I guess. As with selection techniques there are also a million ideas on risk and staking methods and each person needs to find what works for them.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 27th April 2018, 12:29 PM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 462
Default

"PLAY WITH MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE"

You are giving up before even started
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 27th April 2018, 03:49 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 103
Default

UB, Do you take BSP when laying longshots? Trialling your advice, I just layed Zaveena in the 6th at Dubbo who ran true to form. I never got matched with a few secs to go so had to quickly change it to BSP.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 27th April 2018, 03:52 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,586
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
UB, Do you take BSP when laying longshots? Trialling your advice, I just layed Zaveena in the 6th at Dubbo who ran true to form. I never got matched with a few secs to go so had to quickly change it to BSP.


Yes generally its matched at BFSP especially when you are putting it on just before the jump.

BTW nice lay.

Last edited by UselessBettor : 27th April 2018 at 03:55 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 7th June 2018, 07:05 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 6,647
Smile

Where is "Bert B when ya need him.
__________________
When you live live in clover . when your dead your dead all over.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 7th June 2018, 07:19 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,288
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Where is "Bert B when ya need him.


Is that 777 your talking about?
__________________
One Drive

"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 04:23 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655