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  #51  
Old 14th December 2012, 07:50 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, L.G.

T.O is correct. It can be confusing. I think some people are conditioned to the Exchange but not S.P. as it's not been available for all that long. They are two completely types of laying, and again it can be confusing.

I think laying horses that are fancied in the market would do better being layed on the exchange whilst outsiders do better on S.P. (as I do) - but that's just my opinion.
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  #52  
Old 14th December 2012, 07:54 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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(1) When laying there is no outlay. There is risk.
(2) The risk (in this case) is always $33 so the payout is not $33, it is $33 plus the bet taken. eg @ 33/1 the payout is $34, @ 2/1 the payout is $66.
(3) Laying outsiders one out is not the fastest way to the poor house, but you will get there eventually, as seen by MG's returns and the need to have a strike rate of close to 100%. 28/28 sounds great but at an average price of 80-85 it's madness. No matter how you look at it, the risk return is way out of kilter. One bad day could literally wipe out months of profits.

Sorry to be the (unwanted?) voice of reason, but this could also apply to most "systems" put forward here.
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  #53  
Old 14th December 2012, 08:12 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Thanks for the clarity, chaps.
No voice of reason answer is unwanted 'Mark', not in this case at least!

When you say 1 bad day could wipe out months of profits, assume you
mean several consecutive losses after a long string of smiles.. How likely would this be with a 90%+ SR?

Cheers LG
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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB
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  #54  
Old 14th December 2012, 08:40 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Correction, the payout @ 2/1 is $49.50, @ evens would be $66.

LG, not sure how likely, but it will happen. Even say 3 days of "just" 90% strike rate would be bad.
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  #55  
Old 14th December 2012, 09:05 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, Mark.

Are you talking about laying on the Exchange or S.P? If there's an accident on S.P. the payout is always $33. I know because it's unfortunately happened, and also a few seconds after the jump the selection is shown with a red $33 against it's name.
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  #56  
Old 14th December 2012, 09:11 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Laying SP is at liability, so the risk is $33, not the payout.
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  #57  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:08 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Every time I have an accident my payout is $33. I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

I'm having too many troubles with the R&S website so I'll list the selections that I've been able to identify.

M'ville
7/9, 11
8/10,11

Bendigo
2/9
4/4, 13
7/13
8/8

Ipswich
2/8
3/4
4/9
5/10
7/3, 4

Pakenham
3,1, 2, 8, 9

Sun Coast
1/8
2/1, 2, 4, 10
3/9

If I can get back into the R.S. website I'll try to list any more selections.
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  #58  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:29 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Today's Muswellbrook selections:

1/10
3/7, 8, 11, 12,13
5/1, 4, 6, 12
6/1, 8, 10
9/2.
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  #59  
Old 14th December 2012, 01:04 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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[QUOTE=michaelg]Every time I have an accident my payout is $33. I think we'll have to agree to disagree.

QUOTE]

There's no argument to be had MG, liability and payout are not the same.
Imagine you're a bookie, which is what laying is about and somebody wants to have $1 @ 33/1 or $34. The bet is 33 - 1 and $34 appears on the ticket. The risk or liability is $33 and the payout is $34. Yes you're liability is always $33 but you also give back the $1 bet you're holding. If this was not the case then you would not receive the $1 when the horse loses. Same if the horse was even money and the punter wants $33 on. The bet is $33 - $33 and $66 appears on the ticket. The liability is (still) $33 but the payout is $66. So when it loses you receive $33. You have to look at it that before the race is over you have written a bet to risk $33.
If that doesn't explain it have a look at any of your bookie accounts (I'm assuming you would have some). When you have a $1 bet on at 33/1, $1 is removed from your account until after the race and if it wins you receive $34. Your balance goes up by $33 however the bookie has paid you $34.

Last edited by Mark : 14th December 2012 at 01:06 PM.
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  #60  
Old 14th December 2012, 01:05 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Today's Scone selections:

4/4, 9
6/7, 9, 11
7/5
8/5, 10
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