English Premier League, French, German, Italian & Spanish.

G01 Stoke v Middlesbrough 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G02 Hull v Leicester 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G03 Everton v Tottenham 10 games 9 under 3.5 one game over 3.5
G04 Caen v Loriet 12 games 12 under 3.5
G05 Wolfsburg v Augsburg 10 games 10 under 3.5
G06 Lazio v Atalanta 23 games 23 under 3.5
G07 Inter v Chievo 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5
G08 Empoli v Sampdoria 16 games 16 under 3.5
G09 Genoa v Cagliari 10 games 10 under 3.5
G10 Osasuna v Malaga 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5
G11 Gijon v A Bilbao 10 games 9 under 3.5 one over 3.5

Current market, A-League

Melbourne City FC $5
Sydney FC $5.50
Perth Glory $7
Brisbane Roar $8
Melbourne Victory $8
Western Sydney Wanderers $9
Adelaide United $12
Wellington Phoenix $19
Central Coast Mariners $41
Newcastle Jets $41

Latest betting A-League winner

Sydney FC $2.10
Melbourne Victory $3.60
Melbourne City FC $12
Brisbane Roar $13
Perth Glory $17
Western Sydney Wanderers $26

66/1 or better for the rest

Current odds - World Cup - Main Market

Germany 5.50
Brazil 8.00
Spain 10.00
Argentina 11.00
France 12.00
Belgium 21.00
Italy 21.00
England 26.00
Portugal 31.00
Colombia 34.00
Chile 41.00
Russia 41.00
Uruguay 51.00
Netherlands 51.00
Mexico 81.00
Croatia 101.00
Switzerland 101.00
USA 126.00
Poland 201.00
Serbia 201.00
Ukraine 201.00
Japan 201.00
Denmark 201.00
Australia 701.00

Early market, A-League

Sydney FC $4
Melbourne Victory $5.50
Melbourne City FC $7.50
Perth Glory $9.50
Brisbane Roar $10
Western Sydney Wanderers $10
Adelaide United $13
Wellington Phoenix $26
Newcastle Jets $26
Central Coast Mariners $34

Hi to all,

As I promised my rugby friends, I located my soccer predictions program and updated it. I coded and ran last season’s 380 EPL matches to create the EPL starting ratings for this season. I give promoted teams the average ratings of the relegated teams, to start the new season. I just finished and now have predictions for EPL week 4.

As I do for rugby, for each team, I calculate an offensive rating, a defensive rating and the team’s constancy. I also calculate the home advantage in points. For soccer, I calculate three probabilities: for a home win, draw and away win (home loss). By the end of the season, my average probabilities are within 1% of the actual fraction of home wins, draws and away wins. I calculate the fair decimal odds for all three possibilities. As with rugby, whenever bookmaker decimal odds are higher than my fair odds, you have an edge. I added a page to explain my soccer predictions. In the future, I will post new predictions a day or two after the last game is played. These are late since I just finished.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 4 pred.doc (29.5 KB, 410 views)

good one Ray

don't normally dabble much in epl of late, might try more, cheers ray

For about the first four weeks, ratings bounce around quite a bit. That’s due to the newly promoted teams, new players, new coaches and new strategies, plus some unusual early-season scores and upsets. By the end of week four, most ratings have settled.

An interesting case was that of West Ham versus Huddersfield in week four. West Ham had lost all of its first three matches while newly-promoted Huddersfield had been surprisingly unbeaten (two wins and a draw). Huddersfield was underdog with a high price, despite the odd start for both teams. Trading had to be suspended by TAB New Zealand on Huddersfield. When West Ham won 2-0 in week four, both teams’ ratings moved to a more centrist position.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 5 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 338 views)

I wish the EPL teams would tell us when all the teams except Man U and Man City want to take the week off and play for draws. My favorites won four of the five non-drawn matches. On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool and West Brom were heavy favorites but they settled for three 0-0 draws. There were also two 1-1 draws. Five draws is twice as many as usual. Excluding the two Manchester matches, only 11 goals were scored in eight matches. Let’s hope they all come to play in Week 6, so trying to predict winners and looking at odds is worth it. Meanwhile, Man U and Man City are tied at the top in every way possible.

Cheers,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 6 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 325 views)