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  #1  
Old 26th September 2017, 09:42 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Default There ARE profitable systems

I test data, however there must be a thousand and one ways to potentially win as a gambler. My experiences over a long period of time tell me that you must take a long term view and accept that there will be periods where your system will lose. It's inevitable. It's not so difficult finding winning systems, the difficulty comes from a lack of confidence to stick with something that you know will come back into profit and continue to show a long term profit.

When you find a profitable system, chances are that so have others, it's this cosmic element that plunges your system into a loss making one short term because it is just having a run of outs which is normal, or there are too many punters in on the same set of circumstances and the average divvy has dropped.

History repeats! The percentage of favourites winning has stayed constant, as has the percentage of last start winners.

Just throwing this out there and I'm happy to discuss anything related to picking winners. I don't do bots, laying, it's far too complicated for me.
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  #2  
Old 26th September 2017, 10:20 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Default

1) Min 3 runs from spell
2) Last start win
3) must be placed in 1 of it's other previous 2 starts before win
4) must be a "D" or "C" winner
5) Unitab 100 rated
6) Must be fav with a min $2 price
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  #3  
Old 26th September 2017, 10:25 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Default

Welcome to the forum.

Great first post.

A few questions.

1. Where do you get your data?
2. How long have you betting your systems?
3. How many systems do you currently bet ?
4. What size of turnover are you doing at the moment ?
5. Where are you placing most of your bets ?
6. Do you prefer high strike rate or low strike rate systems?
7. Do you prefer high POT/low turnover or low POT/high turnover systems ?
8. What typical angles are you exploiting in your systems ?
9. How do you test your systems and confirm they are worth following ?

glad to have you on board and look forward to some good discussions on system betting.
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  #4  
Old 26th September 2017, 10:33 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
1) Min 3 runs from spell
2) Last start win
3) must be placed in 1 of it's other previous 2 starts before win
4) must be a "D" or "C" winner
5) Unitab 100 rated
6) Must be fav with a min $2 price


For rule 3 does another win count as a placing ? or must it be a second or third ?
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  #5  
Old 26th September 2017, 10:45 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
For rule 3 does another win count as a placing ? or must it be a second or third ?


like this

281
831
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  #6  
Old 26th September 2017, 10:48 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Shaun,

The rules are profitable using betfair SP with a 10% commission take out. Strike rate is 63% over the last few years.

I wouldn't bet this at betfair SP though and would suggest you could get better odds elsewhere in this price range.
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  #7  
Old 26th September 2017, 11:05 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Shaun,

The rules are profitable using betfair SP with a 10% commission take out. Strike rate is 63% over the last few years.

I wouldn't bet this at betfair SP though and would suggest you could get better odds elsewhere in this price range.


true about betfair as these are favs, if you included all favs regardless of price? i feel might be still profitable but less profit, add a race filter may also improve things, i am playing around with this.
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  #8  
Old 26th September 2017, 11:19 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Hi Uselessbettor

A few questions.

1. Where do you get your data? A database

2. How long have you betting your systems? They've been evolving over a few years, borne out from decades of paper form and hunches!!! lol

3. How many systems do you currently bet ? 9 of them

4. What size of turnover are you doing at the moment ? It's rather modest

5. Where are you placing most of your bets ? Betfair and TAB

6. Do you prefer high strike rate or low strike rate systems? The average strike rate is a tick over 20%. If I were running just one system theoretically the run of outs would be about 25, but then again, anything can happen short term. I'd like a high S/R but then I'd be competing with far too many for a quid. I have confidence in my strategy so I'll accept the lower SR.

7. Do you prefer high POT/low turnover or low POT/high turnover systems ?
8. What typical angles are you exploiting in your systems ? I've got high POT/low turnover.

9. How do you test your systems and confirm they are worth following ? I accept the cyclical element of horse racing and the "cosmic" effect lol. Well I'm not really laughing! There are predictable patterns within the randomness of horse racing. I test my systems over a long period of time, during which many changes have happened, compressed weights and so on. If they survive these changes then they're worthy of having a look at. The place strike rate must be as successful as the win SR. eg; if the Win SR is 20% then the place SR should be just around the 50% mark. I further test these systems by substituting "like"" filters, they shouldn't make too much difference. I further test these systems by breaking them up into yearly periods. I like consistency. I will analyse my systems by drilling down into several filters (eg: days since last run 1 to 5, I'll trial 2 to 4) and changing from Metropolitan to Provincial to see if there's some consistency there. There's so many more things, I'll post them later.

I've noticed that potentially good Metro systems need good recent form or good historical form but with Provincial form the potentially profitable systems can have any old form!

That's a start. Remember please, I'm relating my comments to picking winners.
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  #9  
Old 26th September 2017, 11:25 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Missed a couple of questions.

7. Do you prefer high POT/low turnover or low POT/high turnover systems ? I've got high POT low turnover.

8. What typical angles are you exploiting in your systems ? I'll think about how to answer that without giving too much away, but I note that someone said recently on here that there's still plenty of scope for finding value runners. My systems look at just this. Short term, some of my bets may be placed on those under the odds, but over the long term, I believe that my strategy provides horses whose chances of winning are far greater than the odds on offer!
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  #10  
Old 26th September 2017, 11:27 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I assume by "a database" you mean a commercial one ? Or have you programmed your own?
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