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  #1  
Old 10th October 2017, 12:31 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Default All About Ratings

****..........................................****

The above sums up what I know about ratings.

How would you rate a LSW on a Provincial track on the wet going up two grades on a good track?

I'm not into trying to trip anyone up, or starting an argument about who is the best. The more I know about trying to make a quid from this caper, the more I believe that very few actually do.
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  #2  
Old 10th October 2017, 02:03 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Ratings are a very very big universe that I think some people can confuse for being the final betting answer when in reality it is rarely the case. I personally think the best ratings are ones you create yourself because you know whats gone into them and what they are trying to achieve.

A 'rating' doesn't need to refer to the overall chances of a horse winning a race based on x amount of criteria that help form the final rating. You could simply want to create a rating that is based on the pace, expected settling position and intricacies of a track at a particular distance. This won't necessarily give you the best horse in the race or the one with the best chance of winning or the 'classiest' horse, but what it can potentially do is boil down all the statistics and your own thoughts about the pace, settling position and the track into singular figures at the click of a mouse. Or you might create a rating that scales the horses historical race times against similar class horses or the average or best track times etc etc.

The options for ratings are pretty endless, but they can also be pretty useless unless you understand their inputs and what they aim to achieve. My view is ratings are pretty good at being a time saver when it comes to deciphering a horses form and chances of winning from a statistical and mechanical standpoint. But I also think at the end of the day its best to look at ratings in isolation and still let your human brain make the final decision by bringing it all together if you're not betting systems. There are simply some things that you can't make mechanical and that the human brain will see in ways that can't be necessarily coded.

Systems work and are profitable and i'm not advocating for or against ratings or systems. But if you're like me and don't take punting tooooo seriously and enjoy the numbers side of it, ratings can be a bit of fun and a decent tool for arriving at betting decisions when you're sitting down to have a saturday punt.
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  #3  
Old 10th October 2017, 03:23 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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Ratings are just another name for a system. If you look at what goes in it is similar to how your design a system but you are taking a more holistic view with a system. Ratings tend to be more focussed on the race at hand including the other runners rather than a historical view.

I admire those that put the effort in to do their own ratings. I personally use my time doing other things. I have purchased ratings, used free ratings and followed the ratings given by tipsters but none perform any better than what I can do with a system.

I personally think ratings are over rated (no pun intended). I'm sure some do pretty well and you would think that those that sell their ratings would be at the top but sadly from my experience picking which "overs" to back is near impossible.
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  #4  
Old 11th October 2017, 09:59 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
Ratings are just another name for a system. I personally think ratings are over rated (no pun intended).


Ratings are simply a statistical filter that helps you sort the sheep from the goats, that's all. Like Price, and Weight of Money, and .... whatever you like, you'll find that "IN GENERAL" they work. They WON'T identify the $25 outsider that rockets home on Cup Day.

Take, for example, the SMH Tips. Published every day free/gratis and the publishers expose their success rate .... over the 4 horses they report that there is a +/- 26% win hit rate and so on for other modes. Good, honest, rated, tipping over all going, all sorts of races etc etc. Others may claim better success .... but what you have to do is make a profit. Backing the 4 Fairfax selections in a "dutch" will lead you to penury, likewise their Top3 .... BUT they've assisted you in reducing the horses you will consider placing your "hard earned" on as a backing stake.

NOTHING in this weary ol' world will save you from the disaster that was a very good horses' performance last Saturday. These are animals, and (like wimmin) are mostly unpredictable.

Do the best you can, ignore the leeches, find out what works
for you, but don't go round flailing at 'all hands and the cook' who don't have your view of the racing world. It's NOT easy but you can make a coupla bob.

Have a lovely day :-)
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  #5  
Old 11th October 2017, 10:21 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Ignoring the ratings v systems v whatever else debate for a minute, i've always been interested into what some of the minds here could bring together from a ratings standpoint. Obviously nobody is probably interested in this as they don't want to give anything away thats allowed them to make a profit but would be kind of cool / interesting if a group of people from this forum were able to put a ratings approach together and if it was successful or not.
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  #6  
Old 11th October 2017, 08:13 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Ratings are simply a statistical filter that helps you sort the sheep from the goats, that's all. Like Price, and Weight of Money, and .... whatever you like, you'll find that "IN GENERAL" they work. They WON'T identify the $25 outsider that rockets home on Cup Day.


Could't have put it better.

Ratings to me are extremely important. Especially if you want to find a consistent edge. They are a good way of comparing horses in a particular race which allows you to find the right edge for the race.

The most important thing is - Ratings don't all work on all races. Specific ratings work in specific cases (wet track ratings on a wet track is an oversimplified example or maybe trainer/jockey/barrier trials ratings work on a race with lots of first starters). Finding the right set of ratings for a race allows you to attack the race from a viewpoint that gives you an edge on that race.
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  #7  
Old 11th October 2017, 08:15 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Ignoring the ratings v systems v whatever else debate for a minute, i've always been interested into what some of the minds here could bring together from a ratings standpoint. Obviously nobody is probably interested in this as they don't want to give anything away thats allowed them to make a profit but would be kind of cool / interesting if a group of people from this forum were able to put a ratings approach together and if it was successful or not.


This doesn't work as per my last post. A set of ratings doesn't work on a all races but using the right ratings for the right races (and knowing which set of ratings to use for a race) gives you a consistent edge which allow syou to profit from hundreds of races/sports each and every day.
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  #8  
Old 12th October 2017, 11:49 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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My simple mind cannot get past the overwhelming desire to keep tinkering with the value you apply to each criteria. When you do tinker do you adjust the values of other criteria?
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  #9  
Old 12th October 2017, 02:39 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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I think what's happened over the last decade is that more favoured horses are winning more frequently and I attribute that to more sophisticated analysis, and yes the popularity of ratings. I also think the bookies are quite happy to take less of a percentage because the turnover on the favoured horses has increased dramatically. The downside is that to get a couple of points in your favour to tip you into profit is now much, much harder on the more popular horses.

I can see how ratings might be useful, but not to me (at least I don't think so!). I don't need to be convinced that they're a useful tool however.

I think "look where no-one else is looking" is garbage, there is nothing that isn't known by someone, and thus is priced into the market.
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  #10  
Old 12th October 2017, 03:46 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
My simple mind cannot get past the overwhelming desire to keep tinkering with the value you apply to each criteria. When you do tinker do you adjust the values of other criteria?


When you lose or have a run of losses.....it's called backfitting.
Chopping and changing will never help.

"I think what's happened over the last decade is that more favoured horses are winning more frequently"......

Not according to my turnover and profits.
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