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  #1  
Old 26th October 2017, 11:57 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Default The Market - Look where no-one else is looking

"Look where no-one else is looking" is a well worn phrase and is certainly up for debate. Is there anyone on here who believes they have found something on a regular basis that in the evolving history of gambling and racing, that only a few others have pursued? Or that this "ünknown" cannot, by accident be part of a bookies "intelligence", a system, ratings etc?

I believe nothing is unknown.

Following on from this then it's plausible that "the market" knows everything and as such the horses odds are priced accordingly.
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  #2  
Old 26th October 2017, 12:35 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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I read in the Sunday paper quite a while ago a comment from the trainer of a young horse that was beaten as an odds on favourite. Apologies for the lack of detail. The trainer thought his horse would win and was surprised when it drifted. His comments went something like this "They knew something I didn't. I was nervous when it drifted because usually they are correct". He didn't know who they were.
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  #3  
Old 26th October 2017, 02:08 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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"The market knows everything"

And the first Market put out before the "Mathematically Uneducated Gamblers" change the odds with the two and fro of betting.

Cheers
darky.
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  #4  
Old 26th October 2017, 02:30 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
"The market knows everything"

And the first Market put out before the "Mathematically Uneducated Gamblers" change the odds with the two and fro of betting.

Cheers
darky.


I'm extremely interested in others opinions. Instead of a one liner (the MUG acronym) can you expand please darkydog2002? How are the odds changed by MUGs? I actually believe that in some cases the odds are changed by mugs, but I'd love to hear you opinion. And please don't assume that I know where you're coming from with a one liner, coz I don't. Punting on the horses, creating a market is complex, and I'm open to those experienced punters.
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  #5  
Old 26th October 2017, 04:01 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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The Term came from Roger Dedmans book and isn,t a reflection on anyone here.

One can confidently say that the Newspaper market is the earliest Market as they must meet publishing deadlines.

On race day odds change through the weight of money bet.

I have seen horses priced at $12 + (early market from the price asessors ) backed into $2.30 (happens all the time)

Thank goodness they are betting THEIR Money and not mine.

Swings and roundabouts.

One would not go far wrong sticking to those in the early markets priced up to $10 (what price one accepts as a minimum or Maximum is entirely ones own judgement (mine $4 - $10 except in Major races like the Melb Cup etc)

No doubt their will be other opinions but one hopes the usual trolls keep it civil.

Cheers.
darky.

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  #6  
Old 26th October 2017, 07:17 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Following on from this then it's plausible that "the market" knows everything and as such the horses odds are priced accordingly.


The odds fluctuate before the race so there are market inefficiencies taking place during that time. A horses odds are only priced correctly when they are final and can swing wildly in the last few mins. A $3.00 chance that crunches into $2.50 has gone from a 33% chance of winning to a 40% chance of winning. That is a fairly large difference in the chance of the horse.


But your premise is basically right. The final odds have all known information put into it from the punters and are fairly accurate.

If we believe this to be true (and we know from research its pretty close) then you need to work out how you can profit from it. There are several ways:

- Bet early and get overs on the odds which get crunched later.
- Lay early odds in the anticipation they will lengthen.
- Use the final odds as a filter to determine which horses are genuine chances.
- Identify inefficiencies in the place market which struggles to keep up with the win market.

Those are some ways and there are probably a heap more.
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  #7  
Old 26th October 2017, 07:25 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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An example to prove the market is generally correct:

How many horses win under $10 today:

Rockhampton : 6 winners /7 races
Hawksberry : 7 winners / 8 races
Ballarat : 8 winners / 9 races
Geraldoton 7 winners / 8 races (1 left to go)

Under $20 which is a 5% chance:

Rockhampton : 7 winners /7 races
Hawksberry : 8 winners / 8 races
Ballarat : 9 winners / 9 races
Geraldoton 7 winners / 8 races (1 left to go)


There was only 1 winner today out of 32 races which had odds higher than $20.
There was only 4 winners today out of 32 races which had odds higher than $10.

Now just work out how to profit from it.

Last edited by UselessBettor : 26th October 2017 at 07:27 PM.
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  #8  
Old 27th October 2017, 10:58 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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darkydog2002, I like your post but I have a different opinion to your point "on race day odds change through the weight of money bet." I'm fairly well convinced that the market manipulates punters into backing certain horses, the market includes bookies, the media etc. I'm not convinced it's weight of money, that's too obvious to me.

Your $4 to $10 is a good range I believe. My range is $4 to $30 and I think the sweet spot is somewhere around the $6 to $20 range depending on your selection method.

Good luck!!!!
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  #9  
Old 27th October 2017, 03:44 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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Snert, I can agree with you that the market often influences punters into backing certain horses. I find that the better trainers Waller, Weir, Hayes etc horses are often priced much lower than they perform over time providing a good guide of which horses to avoid backing and some good laying opportunities which I take.

A similar thing applies with good Jockeys. Bowman, Pike, Berry and the likes rides often are shorter in the market than how they perform. Again I use this for laying opportunities.
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  #10  
Old 27th October 2017, 03:44 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Thanks Snert.
Personally I dont believe the bookies or totes have a need to manipulate the market to entice punters as they are garunteed a profit on the day whichever horse wins.

The ratings to win website would I,m sure have articles on this.

My understanding of this is that the QLD bookies are the worst to bet with re % takeout.

Cheers.
darky.
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