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  #1  
Old 14th November 2017, 12:32 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Default Lay system

Just need some help here, kinda follows on from the "Worst System Ever" been watching in real time and also going backwards, it's so simple, I wanna shout it from the roof tops, but of course I can't. So instead I suppose I'm asking advice from other formulites that have discovered something similar? No1 in my case a loss of 25-30%, I mean consistently for many years, but I notice that by concentrating on $4- $20 (on the lay side) just produces profits galore..... my question is " how would you approach it?)

were talking about 95% failure rate + but what really worries me is the odd 1000-1 shot, YES it does happen!
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  #2  
Old 14th November 2017, 01:28 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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If you are concentrating on $4-$20 then $1000-1 or anything over $20 won't bother you as you won't be laying them
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  #3  
Old 14th November 2017, 11:09 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Hi Partypooper, would you clarify something for me please? Does your 25% to 30% loss equate roughly to say a 70% return on dollars invested? If so this is only marginally worse (well 10% to 15% worse) than the TAB takeout?
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Old 14th November 2017, 11:52 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Shaun, the LOT quoted is NOT restricting the prices, that was just something I noticed the accidents tend to happen with the shorties (of course) but occasionally monster outsider. I've done a bit of arbing but have not really got into laying big time.

Snert, I was talking there about IF all selections were backed @ BF SP the result was 25-30% LOT. I really only like to lay within 1 point of the back price available say, 1 minute B4 the off, eg back= $6.30, lay is $7 , the lay is on.

Just looking for snippets I suppose.
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  #5  
Old 14th November 2017, 03:43 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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Poops, I lay all prices at level stakes but anything above 20, I lay to liability. That stops the biggy that wins but also of course means a smaller return with a successful lay. At 1000/1, you would be unlikely to be within a point of the back side to get a match. I lay to 4 points 2 seconds off scheduled start time and sometimes use BSP during low liquidity week day meets.

Iíve been mucking around in this price bracket as well. With a bit of time on my hands at the moment, today I have picked a lay in each race from the top 4 picks according to the TAB app and have 100% success today (touching wood).
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  #6  
Old 14th November 2017, 04:17 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Thenewguy, thanks for the feedback, as there is heaps of action with this one I'm only laying to $10 per race so bringing in the 20-1 max means I have a maximum liability of $200 on any given race, and skipping the race when the nag is less than 3-1 ($4) this will of course reduce the action , but I think it would suit my personality better, but at this stage I don't know how that will affect the bottom line.
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  #7  
Old 14th November 2017, 06:12 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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partypooper,

My advice is lay everything to liability. Your minimum liability is always $30 though so keep that in mind.

I have looked into lots of different ways to lay and laying to liability is the safest method.

Laying to liability is easy to think of as its the same as betting to win. Also if you want to use betfair SP they require you put in a liability rather than an amount.

For example. Lets say you put in a lay at $10 for a $5 horse and it only gets partially matched for $2.0 That means you can send $8 to betfair SP at at $5 price which would equal a liability of $40. This would match fine.

If instead you had matched $5 and tried to get $5 to match on betfair SP you would get rejected and only have the initial $5 running for you. The second $5 which was going to go to the Betfair SP can not be done because $5 x $5 = $25 and does not meet the minimum $30 liability.

Recheck your systems using a liability staking and if it doesn't make a profit then you are probably kidding yourself that you have found a profitable system. This is the only way to check if you really have an edge laying IMO. The laying to a stake just is too variable to be able to determine if its profitable long term.
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Old 14th November 2017, 06:49 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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UB, thanks for that much to contemplate, takes a while to sink in though. Just one thing, if I'm laying say an $8 shot (in the normal way) and I want to keep my liability to $30, I can't do it cos the stake is less than the minimum ($5) right? OK, using the liability method of $30 and the horse is $8 would that bet be matched even though it's less than the $5 minimum (i.e. $3.75)

I've managed to make that sound complicated, it's just that I'm not used to the terminology.
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  #9  
Old 14th November 2017, 07:22 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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PP, email on its way.
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  #10  
Old 15th November 2017, 06:11 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
UB, thanks for that much to contemplate, takes a while to sink in though. Just one thing, if I'm laying say an $8 shot (in the normal way) and I want to keep my liability to $30, I can't do it cos the stake is less than the minimum ($5) right? OK, using the liability method of $30 and the horse is $8 would that bet be matched even though it's less than the $5 minimum (i.e. $3.75)

I've managed to make that sound complicated, it's just that I'm not used to the terminology.


When laying to liability your minimum stake must be $30 or equivalent to a $5 back bet. So yes 3.75 would be matched because you met the minimum liability amount. Same thing if you wanted to lay at $100 liability your $30 would be matched at 30 cents. And that is valid because you meet the minimum liability limits.

PP I have another question for you though. Have you accounted for commission ? I would suggest accounting for 7% commission so if your laying to liability you just return 93% of that figure. If your laying to stakes then for every $1 lay you really only get back 93c. I have 7% commission is a good figure for testing and will be close enough to reality depending on where you are laying/betting. 7% covers most places and accounts for those higher and those lower. If your using 5% your too low. If your not accounting for commission you might find your system is actually losing when its taken into account.

You also need to remember commission is on race and not selection. So if you have multiple selections in a race you need to sum them up and then remove commission.

Another thing to remember is if you are winning at a high strike rate (95%+) your likely to incur premium charges. In that case you should account for 20% commission overall for the week

There are so many variables that can tip a winning system into a losing system.
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