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  #1  
Old 29th April 2018, 04:17 PM
Vortech Vortech is offline
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Default Which system is better for the punter

System A:
100 Selections Profit $20 or 20%POT - 50% Strike Rate

System B
200 Selections Profit $30 or 15%POT - 40% Strike Rate

Same Period of testing.

Interested to hear the great minds out there
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  #2  
Old 29th April 2018, 05:18 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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It depends. Here is a simple test : Do you pay premium charge on betfair?

Answer Yes then System B.
Answer No then System A.

In reality .... neither as its not at a point which has sufficient testing to confirm the long term viability of either system.
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  #3  
Old 29th April 2018, 05:38 PM
Vortech Vortech is offline
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Assume than each systems increased and system a has 10000 bets for 20 pot n system b has 20000 for 15 pot.

It's more around at what stage or test do you apply a drop in strike rate and profit on turnover to increase overall profit.
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  #4  
Old 29th April 2018, 05:57 PM
theoldguy theoldguy is offline
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Smile

i was thinking a "trick" question...same system but was 100 bets then another 100 bets to make it 200 bets..but you said same period .. so i am wrong???
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  #5  
Old 29th April 2018, 09:58 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I will take profit over P.O.T any day.
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  #6  
Old 30th April 2018, 06:13 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I will take profit over P.O.T any day.


I'm with you.

The POT belongs under the bed.
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  #7  
Old 30th April 2018, 05:13 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I am going to disagree with some of the comments.

While I don't care about having a high POT (Mine usually run < 1%) I also wouldn't take System B over System A.

I am a risk averse punter. Low risk is my best friend.

I would go with the system which has the lowest draw down. This is likely to be System A as it has a higher strike rate.

The reason I would go with the lowest draw down is because I want less volatility in my returns. Less volatility means less risk. Less risk means I can bet a higher amount on it and return a higher profit then the alternative system.
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  #8  
Old 30th April 2018, 06:11 PM
Vortech Vortech is offline
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I've had to revert to using the Binominal confidence formula based on 99% confidence and using Average price of winners over the lowest confidence interval

Its a lengthy way of testing the only way I know

The reason I ask this question is i'm trying to remove particular filters in my systems. While removing filters I'm gaining better profit but losing POT% and strike rate.

By using the Binomial formula it removes the adhoc chance of a high priced horse boosting the profit outside of my original system rules in which would be unrealistic to continue long-term.
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  #9  
Old 30th April 2018, 07:36 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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I,m also with Shaun.
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