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  #21  
Old 25th March 2018, 05:30 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
First, you might consider predicting nothing more than which dog in each race will be the crowd favorite. Period. Get really good at this, because it's a MAJOR key to your success. You need to predict who the CROWD will choose as a favorite, because eventually you will find that the crowd bases their betting on the strength of this particular dog. If you don't know which one is going to be the crowd favorite, you'll never be able to develop ANY kind of odds model.


This is generally a very hard process for me pre betting trends, as with horses sometimes, first uppers have stable support, and the crowd follow like sheep.
Other horses I think should start favourite are marked drifters. Some horses get support because of what they've done on the training track which we aren't privy to and you couldn't have them on form.
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  #22  
Old 26th March 2018, 06:48 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
This is generally a very hard process for me pre betting trends, as with horses sometimes, first uppers have stable support, and the crowd follow like sheep.
Other horses I think should start favourite are marked drifters. Some horses get support because of what they've done on the training track which we aren't privy to and you couldn't have them on form.


Mornin' Mr Prince,
The longer I fiddle with punting the more I realise that the weight of money close to the off seems to work.
Strikes me that this isn't mugmoney .... itsa lotta money, it's bookies laying off, it's what the systemateers and raters and observers think combined. You'd have to have a VERY selective algorithm .......

For the past year or so I've concentrated on UK racing (which involves o'nite work) and has races carrying wagers of +/- $1 million. Holding off until about 5 mins to go and then running the analysis for both lay and back works well. YES, there are bad setbacks when a $50 horse gets up, but by-and-large they perform to their prices. Considerably better than some of our home grown conveyances.
Looks like I've become the Nighthawk.
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  #23  
Old 26th March 2018, 08:22 AM
Vortech
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Another quick comment is keeping an eye on the total pools.

$2 horse in a Hobart maiden generally will lose more than a $2 favourite in the Cox Plate
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  #24  
Old 26th March 2018, 10:05 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vortech
Another quick comment is keeping an eye on the total pools.

$2 horse in a Hobart maiden generally will lose more than a $2 favourite in the Cox Plate


Maidens less than 9% loss, those racing for prizemoney > say $500k greater than 14% loss ..... next?
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  #25  
Old 27th March 2018, 04:40 AM
Vortech
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snert
Maidens less than 9% loss, those racing for prizemoney > say $500k greater than 14% loss ..... next?
\

Generally speaking if you test against the pool of money invested in the race you can find the odds of the horse are closer to its true value!

On the other hand, you can also assume that the number of punters is larger and they are betting on horses using publicly known information and sometimes generally creating opportunities.

PS: i'm not a systems player... I base my bets around ratings and value in the horses rated price. Whether you call this a system or not I'm not sure.
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