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  #291  
Old 29th April 2011, 06:40 PM
max max is offline
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So based on those stats, why would one not back the 3rd fav or 4th fav or 5th fav in the last race of the day?
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  #292  
Old 29th April 2011, 06:54 PM
beton beton is offline
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Thanks Jazzy
That is helpful. I am going a little deeper and want to see how each day folds out.
Max Very good question. I am tied up with the front end right now. Why don't you research the back end and let us all know.
Regards Beton
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  #293  
Old 30th April 2011, 02:05 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Ocho.
If the objective is to make 100% a month , why not bet 2% of bank instead of 1% of bank.

One could bet 2% with a safety brake to reset once say 35% is lost.
Or
Bet 2% of current bank up & down, reset each day.

It is very difficult finding plans that make any profit a month, betting every day, at level stakes. Let alone something that makes 100% a month at level stakes.
That's because horse racing is not an exact science, it can change like the ever shifting sands of the desert & requires patience to deal with it.

----------------------------------------------------------------
With that Lay88 plan , you have summed it up pretty well.
The idea is to work out what your max price that you are going to accept, then work out the percentage to be used,
If 9.00 is max price . the percentage reduction on initial bet. would have to be around 20%.

Remember, the longer we are out there the more dangerous it can become.
So know your average SR is for the win side then add 8 to it.
Example.
If your Lay selections happen to have a win SR 20% if backing .
Then Set Lay88 program to 20 + 8= 28%

400:1 ratio is what I would go for if chasing =< 6.00
1000:1 ratio if chasing =< 11.00
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  #294  
Old 30th April 2011, 08:29 AM
beton beton is offline
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Jazzy
Your breakdown of winners could prove to be a boon. Could you produce in the same format the average dividend. Then with simple maths we could produce a chart to see if any are over or under bet. We could also put a statistical value in each box. At a glance we could see if we were getting value.
Thanks Beton
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  #295  
Old 30th April 2011, 09:09 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Thumbs up

We got a winner in the 5th race today for only a small 60c gain (for $1 bet) with BF taking out their commission giving us 37c for the day.

That's the end of my monitoring the 3rd fav. As I said earlier, if anyone wants to keep monitoring it on here please feel free to do so.

It has done extremely well and, as Bhagwan has said, if I were betting 2% of the bank, the bank would of doubled. Of course, that would only give us 8 losing days in a row before we did our dough rather than 16 if betting 1% ($1 in $100).

Overall a big thumbs up for this Bhagwan "system".

I was going to keep track of a few other systems I am trying out on here but I'm afraid any value may not hold up long term if people start piling on (as appears to have happened with the 3rd fav according to beton's analysis).

What do you guys reckon? Is it worth listing what I am trying out with my betting bots or what? A couple of the systems are a bit selective and may not be able to be exactly duplicated due to odds or settlement time. They seem to be going well and have actually doubled the bank in about 10 days depending how you record it ( ) although a loss would be very bad with these systems (a bit like some high odds laying systems although they're not that).

------------------------------------------------------

Final Update - Day 29

Bhagwan System (Backing 3rd fav in first 6 races only)

Full Market Name Selection Amount Price Profit And Loss
AUS / Caul (AUS) 30th Apr / 12:10 R1 1200m Hcap 1. Ariarni 0.5 7 -0.5
AUS / Newc (AUS) 30th Apr / 12:15 R1 1200m Mdn 4. Girls Night Out 0.5 14 -0.5
AUS / EFrm (AUS) 30th Apr / 12:20 R1 1200m 2yo 9. Ferokka 0.5 8 -0.5
AUS / Seym (AUS) 30th Apr / 12:25 R1 1400m 3yo 1. Bay Zena 0.5 9.8 -0.5
AUS / Hawk (AUS) 30th Apr / 12:30 R1 1200m Hcap 2. Mascareri 0.5 5.6 2.3

Above is for 50c bets.

Today (for $1 per bet)
Bot +$0.60
Betfair +$0.37

Start Bank $100
Bot Running Total $157.78 (Highest $159.78 on 19/4/11)
Betfair Running Total $151.05 (Highest $154.69 on 19/4/11)

Stats for Bhagwan's system for April:
29 Days
100 Bets
24 Winners
82.7% Daily S/R
24% Betting S/R
51% POT (for Betfair Total)
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  #296  
Old 30th April 2011, 09:23 PM
beton beton is offline
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Thanks Ocho for your input on this. I am sure that it has been a benefit to all.In due time people will get a series of poor or losing days and they will leave this and look for the Holy Grail of Punt elsewhere allowing the 3rd fav to settle back to near the return history dictates. Regards Beton
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  #297  
Old 30th April 2011, 10:54 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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No worries beton, thanks.

If someone had of started doing this on April 20 (after the highest point of the system) they would of had 10 days of minus returns and be down -2 or -3.64 with commission deducted if using betfair and as you say may then leave it for something else.
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  #298  
Old 1st May 2011, 04:09 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Well done Ocho.
The exercise made for interesting reading & input.

The result was very strong .

The topic had a huge view rate.

Well done again.

Cheers.
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  #299  
Old 1st May 2011, 06:29 AM
4legs 4legs is offline
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Yes; I too Ocho would like to join the others and thank you for a great thread and also for your time you invested in it. I am sure everyone got something out of it. Fred















































































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  #300  
Old 1st May 2011, 09:10 AM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Thanks Bhagwan, beton & 4legs.

Of course you should be thanking Bhagwan for the system (and Bhagwan should be thanking himself...lol ).
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