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  #151  
Old 5th November 2019, 02:24 PM
jose jose is offline
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Hope you got some of that trifecta the "system" threw up WM.
Top job.
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  #152  
Old 5th November 2019, 02:34 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
So per this system, the winner comes from: Mer De Glace, Vow And Declare, Mirage Dancer, Downdraft, or Cross Counter.

Combine it with our 'the system' and the winner is "clearly" one of Downdraft and Vow And Declare. ...though you'll note that there's no way for a debuting foreign raider to be a selection per Aspro, so his system would have misfired the previous two years. Per 'the system', the best foreign debuting candidates are Master Of Reality and Latrobe.
I've written a lot of rubbish on this thread; I wish I listened to this particular piece of rubbish!


I didn't mind my pick Cross Counter's run. I don't think what seemed to be a very slow pace would have suited. I think it was Constantinople who veered into his way early in the straight and caused him to lose momentum. It took him a while to rebalance and once he did - for a moment there - I thought he was going to blitz his way through. Unfortunately he started laying in and had to be straightened up.


Depending on how this protest goes, I might have bet around all the winners! I'll do some reviewing late tonight
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  #153  
Old 5th November 2019, 02:37 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I played with the ratings a bit and an alternate set of selections have come out (same selections different order):

0.0 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 3RD
0.5 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
0.5 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
1.0 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2ND
1.0 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
1.0 FINCHE (GB)
1.0 MUSTAJEER (GB)
1.5 VOW AND DECLARE 1ST
2.0 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)

Lets see which performs better
Nice
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  #154  
Old 5th November 2019, 05:49 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I am reading a lot about MER DE GLACE not being able to make the distance. I am worried about VOW AND DECLARE, SURPRISE BABY and DOWNDRAFT drawing too wide.


And this is why I use systems and not my own feel. I eliminated the winner just on personal choice. I made about $140 on the race but the day is looking very profitable.
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  #155  
Old 5th November 2019, 09:00 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I played with the ratings a bit and an alternate set of selections have come out (same selections different order):

0.0 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) 3RD
0.5 MER DE GLACE (JPN)
0.5 DOWNDRAFT (IRE)
0.5 CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE)
1.0 MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) 2ND
1.0 SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
1.0 FINCHE (GB)
1.0 MUSTAJEER (GB)
1.5 VOW AND DECLARE 1ST
2.0 RAYMOND TUSK (IRE)

Lets see which performs better

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Nice

Unfortunately, for the sake of posterity, the protest between 4 v 2 was upheld so finishing order 23, 12, 20, 3 - So no trifecta.

But the system got the winner. Well done walkermac!
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  #156  
Old 5th November 2019, 09:51 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here is the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2GnR4YRNmE

Here are the final results:

FinishNo.HorseTrainerJockeyMarginBar.WeightPenaltyStarting Price
123VOW AND DECLARE Danny O'BrienCraig Williams2152kg$11
212PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie FellowesMichael Walker0.2L854kg1.0kg$17
320IL PARADISO (USA) Aidan O'BrienWayne Lordan0.3L1752.5kg$15
43MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) Joseph O'BrienFrankie Dettori0.4L155.5kg$26
518SURPRISE BABY (NZ) Paul PreuskerJordan Childs0.9L2053.5kg1.0kg$12
62MER DE GLACE (JPN) Hisashi ShimizuDamian Lane1.2L256kg1.0kg$9.50
711FINCHE (GB) Chris WallerKerrin McEvoy1.4L454kg$8.50F
81CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie ApplebyWilliam Buick1.6L557.5kg$13
921STEEL PRINCE (IRE) Anthony FreedmanBrett Prebble2.1L1652.5kg$61
1015MAGIC WAND (IRE) Aidan O'BrienRyan Moore3.6L2453.5kg$26
1110TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) Joseph O'BrienHugh Bowman3.8L1955kg$41
1217SOUND (GER) Michael MoroneyJames Winks3.9L1053.5kg$91
1319CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) David & B Hayes & T DabernigJoao Moreira4.1L752.5kg$9.50
144MIRAGE DANCER (GB) Trent Busuttin & Natalie YoungBen Melham4.3L1355.5kg$51
156HUNTING HORN (IRE) Aidan O'BrienSeamie Heffernan4.5L1155kg$51
1613RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) Richard HannonJamie Spencer5L354kg$21
1722THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew ForsmanTim Clark5.2L1852kg0.5kg$31
187LATROBE (IRE) Joseph O'BrienJames McDonald6.45L2255kg$21
195SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) Ciaron Maher & David EustaceMark Zahra6.55L1455.5kg$26
2024YOUNGSTAR Chris WallerTommy Berry7.3L952kg$31
2116NEUFBOSC (FR) David & B Hayes & T DabernigLuke Nolen8.3L2353.5kg$101
2214DOWNDRAFT (IRE) Joseph O'BrienJohn Allen8.6L1553.5kg$21
238MUSTAJEER (GB) Kris LeesDamien Oliver10.85L655kg$19
249ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) David & B Hayes & T DabernigDwayne Dunn40.85L1255kg$41


The race was run in 3'24.76 - there have only been two slower this century: Americain on Slow and Makybe Diva's middle title, also on a Soft 5. It wasn't just due to the track though: last year's track was a Soft 6 but the race was 3.5s quicker. Makybe Diva's last Cup was also on a Soft 5 and was 5 seconds quicker.

The 600m sectional was 34.75s - there have only been two quicker these past 10 years (since they were reported). 2012's Green Moon was in 34.07s and 2015's Prince Of Penzance was in 34.4s. They obviously had fuel left to burn.

The field was very slow from the 2200m through to the 1000m mark. The winning horses were able to position themselves at the front of the pack during this slow section. They got a rest and made it difficult for others to run them down in the straight. The horses that were 2nd, 3rd and 4th at the 1400m mark went on to be 1st, 2nd and 3rd across the line.

Because fatigue was not really a factor the field finished very close together; the first 12 finishers were within 4 lengths. The previous lowest place to finish within 4 lengths (this century) was 9th. The average distance a 12th place horse finished behind the winner prior to this renewal was 10.8 lengths.

The winner was very atypical given that it wasn't really a staying contest. Of the past 20 winners, Vow And Declare had the highest: Dosage Index, Centre of Distribution, and Conduit Index; and the lowest: Stamina figure (equal), third triad and difference between third and first triad. These are all indicators that a horse is more suited to shorter rather than longer races.

All credit to the placing jockeys: they turned the race into the kind of contest that would best suit their mounts. Brickbats for the other jockeys whom were unsuited by this turn of events: they just sat back and let it turn into a procession.

Can't really look at barrier distances because data for several horses is clearly wrong. They currently have Constantinople doing a 200m sectional in just over 9 seconds and running 202m further, for example.

'The system' had the winner on its top rung (among 5 horses). Master Of Reality slipped off the second rung inside the last few minutes with his price wound out to $26. So "posterity" didn't lose the trifecta on a protest!

The Conduit Mare Stamina 17 figure wasn't a factor this year given that stamina wasn't required.

Aspro's Melbourne Cup System had the winner among its shortlist also, so it does indeed sift the best local candidates.


The end!
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  #157  
Old 15th November 2019, 05:32 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Can't really look at barrier distances because data for several horses is clearly wrong. They currently have Constantinople doing a 200m sectional in just over 9 seconds and running 202m further, for example.
The distances have been updated. The results for this particular race were very up and down; here's the collated data for the past 3 years though (i.e. since they started making it available):


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