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  #51  
Old 8th September 2005, 02:48 PM
BJ BJ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by w924
Hi Punter 57, yes I largely agree withg you re pre post odds in newspapers. Alternatively, using the win pool of the tab of the home state at the 10k win pool mark makes much more sense to me. It is the actual price on offer, not something picked out of the sky by a person (s) or computer ratings.



The price on offer? No, it is the approximate dividend.
While this is a better idea than prepost markets, I still wouldn't rely on it... The people that are serious about backing horses will not bet on the tote. They will bet fixed odds. Watch the fixed odds, and you know where the tote is heading.
A lot of the later money on the tote is from the bookies anyway.

The 10k mark is not really relevant when the total pool reaches 500k. Perhaps a better idea would be 1 minute before jump time, when half the pools have been filled....
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  #52  
Old 8th September 2005, 04:02 PM
feather feather is offline
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I would like to reply but think I would sound to pathetic. But have taken note of whats been said.
Crash, still taking an interest in this "no brainer system" thanks. Look forward to saturday
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  #53  
Old 8th September 2005, 04:48 PM
crash crash is offline
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I'm thinking along the same lines Feather. Of course I don't see any systems posted in other threads to back the "wisdom" used to prove the point[s] of where I'm going wrong.

I am [hardly, especially when it comes to systems] not the one here making claims of superior methodology knowledge. There is nothing here for me to prove :-)
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  #54  
Old 9th September 2005, 08:30 AM
Dale Dale is offline
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Could the knockers of Pre Post Prices provide an explanation as to why these odds deliver the same % of 1st favs,2nd favs etc year after year?

I'd like to meet this office boy to shake his hand,every single week he narrows the field down to 7 or 8 chances for me while i am still in bed,the fact that he can come up with the winner over 90% of the time is absolutely amazing.

Before you step up to knock the office boy and his pre post odds ask yourself if you could even get close to his over 90% of winners from 7 or 8 selctions,bet you cant.

I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds.

Heres an idea why not save some time use the pre post odds as a starting point and fine tune them to produce a decent betting line.
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  #55  
Old 9th September 2005, 10:23 AM
w924 w924 is offline
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Hi BJ,
"The price on offer? No, it is the approximate dividend".

Yes BJ, you are correct..poor choice of words on my part....it is the actual dividend on offer at that time, if the pool was closed at that point. What it does do, over and above the pp odds in the newspaper, is display what real money has gone on to the horses thus far...its a good base to work from ...not perfect but it's a baseline...

"The people that are serious about backing horses will not bet on the tote. They will bet fixed odds. Watch the fixed odds, and you know where the tote is heading.
A lot of the later money on the tote is from the bookies anyway. "

Sorry, BJ have to disagree with you there. Serious punters do bet on the tote...trust me..esp on the longer priced horses..they usually get better value there. Big bets get spread over totses and boopkmakers to spraed the risk and hold up prices..its a fact of life. I dont know how anyone could prove otherwise...
Re bookmakers..they are also serious punters aren't they? I'll concede that some credit bettors sometimes use bookies exclusively..esp when they are experiencing a cash crisis...but make no mistake..the tote is certainly used by professionals...

The 10k mark is not really relevant when the total pool reaches 500k.
I'll agree, but we dont often have 500k win pools on the tote either. 10k is a just starting point..decreed to be more reliable than say a 3k winpool, or the newspaper pp...and used so that I can come up with my selections well ahead of race time....This is a very important factor...Many successful serious punters are successful because they go to the track, knowing exactly which horses they are going to back, before they get through the turnstiles. They dont wait until 1 minute prior to decide what they are going to back..

Perhaps a better idea would be 1 minute before jump time, when half the pools have been filled.

I agree that this could better suit some off course punters etc...esp those following the money, or betting the tris quinellas etc..and I knew pros who did this on course..jamming up tote windows to take their last minute tris etc based upon shortners in the ring......It can also place incredible pressure on a punter with time running out..judgement can get thrown so easily, and mistakes made...That 1 minute prior is the most turbulent for tote prices...the tote pools take time to adjust to the money pouring in..often the jump price is way different to the price 1 minute before the jump..and as you mention, that is time when bookies are also laying off...

Orchestrating a sizeable bet on a longshot is something to treasure.. I have lived a very full life, but nothing comes close to the feeling one gets when successfully backing a "longshot" for a substantial return. It is an experience that only those who have actually done it, will know exactly what I am writing about.

It goes something like this...you go to the track knowing which horse you are going to back..Despite whatever happens in the ring, nothing is going to sway your judgement. You are going to back this horse for x amount of dollars. You "have to bet it 5 times becasue thats how it came up in your plans..The only thing that will stop the bet from happening is if it is a late scratching, or poor value..ie opening or avail odds below what your methods tell you are required. An incredibly long price on offer is not going to make you unduly worry, switch horses, or reduce your outlay., it just means that you have to be discrete when backing it, if you want maximum returns...

You begin, placing bets around the ring, in such a way as to not draw attention, and plummet the price too dramtically. You may either do this alone or with friends to help you. You have already visited the tote window and you revisit the tote to place a bet that will not dent the win dividend too much too quickly. The minutes tick by...You have placed all your money and have time to kill before the jump. You cant believe that the tote price has held up so well and is still offering incredible value. You note the funds pouring in and the odds tumbling on the fave in the ring....not phased by this, you are instead quite excited, and decide to plonk on some more...afterall, your selection is the bargain of the year as far as you are concerned...
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  #56  
Old 9th September 2005, 01:26 PM
w924 w924 is offline
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Hi Dale,

"I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds."

I'm lost for words lol
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  #57  
Old 9th September 2005, 03:47 PM
BJ BJ is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dale
Could the knockers of Pre Post Prices provide an explanation as to why these odds deliver the same % of 1st favs,2nd favs etc year after year?

I'd like to meet this office boy to shake his hand,every single week he narrows the field down to 7 or 8 chances for me while i am still in bed,the fact that he can come up with the winner over 90% of the time is absolutely amazing.

Before you step up to knock the office boy and his pre post odds ask yourself if you could even get close to his over 90% of winners from 7 or 8 selctions,bet you cant.

I also have to laugh at people who knock pre post odds but spend hours and hours doing their own ratings and converting them to odds and in the end dont have a product all that much better than pre post odds.

Heres an idea why not save some time use the pre post odds as a starting point and fine tune them to produce a decent betting line.



Well he must be doing something wrong if he is rating the field yet only winning 90% of races...
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  #58  
Old 9th September 2005, 03:54 PM
Dale Dale is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BJ
Well he must be doing something wrong if he is rating the field yet only winning 90% of races...



What???????????????????
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