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  #31  
Old 12th September 2017, 11:06 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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TTA, I did something similar but rather than using tipsters I just brought together 5 free ratings sources and called it my Rating of Ratings. I only tested it for about a week because it ran so slow within excel (doing each race and sourcing the data from 5 different websites was a slow process) but it showed a little promise.

Basically all you're doing with this kind of approach is taking the view that 15 tipsters combined or 5 ratings services combined or whatever it is has a better understanding of what horse's will likely win a race then the collective market. My guess is that this could hold true but it may only be for specific race types etc and would take some testing - however it will likely give you a good representation of the winning chances pre-race without using actual odds as the guiding factor.

My view on punting has always been to find a way to create my own ratings with various statistical approaches to find the winner. However I'm starting to think that it is much simpler of a process to just take the top few in the market, which is the collective view of many more people then myself, and pick the one I believe has the most advantages going for it. Generally that will be whether its advantaged by its running position, pace of the race or other elements majority of people don't consider and base it on that. If nothing stands out move on to the next race.

The power of betfair prices is enormous - If I had the time and knowledge to code something that could take advantage of these in real-time in a personalized manner, I think this is where the serious money could be made. Hence I can understand why someone like UB can lay claim to being successful.
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  #32  
Old 16th September 2017, 05:27 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
I think that is the crux, really everyone here is still here cos they have found something, of course you are not going to give it away?
Not a lot to give away PP, I price them and when they are way over my price AND over 8 and less than 30 I bet them.
Profit overrides S/R.
Not suitable for gamblers.

Same goes for greys but the price range is tighter.

The old adage of look for value is alive and well, but hard to grasp by many punters.

The 'small fish are sweet' syndrome is hard to get rid of.
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  #33  
Old 16th September 2017, 05:40 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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PS, this is the range it's highly profitable in.
Keeping records and discipline your betting according to your records is the key, unless you go for volume and turnover.
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  #34  
Old 17th September 2017, 03:13 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Yesterday was a great result at Flemington with 5 winners with dividends higher than their rated price

Redkirk Warrior - Rated $3.19 Won $4.50
Catchy - Rated$3.06 Won $3.70
Humidor - Rated $9.38 Won $17.00
Almandin - Rated $2.83 Won $5.30
Hardham - Rated $4.44 Won $9.00

Profit on Turnover (since 22/07/2017) is now 22.1%

I'll be interested to see if it can continue to profit!
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  #35  
Old 17th September 2017, 03:50 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Hi Blackdog 1,

"Small fish " are indeed sweet.

I could never get my head around why people would pick a minimum or maximum Price range resulting in long losing runs when the market has accurately asessed the best horse in a particular race.

I suspect taking into account these losing runs that one would be far more profitable taking the "small fish" and adjusting their staking accordingly.

Cheers.
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  #36  
Old 18th September 2017, 04:46 AM
blackdog1 blackdog1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Hi Blackdog 1,

"Small fish " are indeed sweet.

I could never get my head around why people would pick a minimum or maximum Price range resulting in long losing runs when the market has accurately asessed the best horse in a particular race.

I suspect taking into account these losing runs that one would be far more profitable taking the "small fish" and adjusting their staking accordingly.

Cheers.
Only guessing, but the reason you can't get your head around it, because you have no idea of what you are doing?

Do you do form?
Do you record where you are winning?
And I mean there are at least 20 variables minimum!
Beginning with track distance number of horses and ad infinitum.

Your Uncle darky type comments, sometimes ingratiating youself to other punters, sometimes delibarately hostile to others yet is becoming tiresome.

I do what I do and you can do whatever you do.
Let's not cross comments again if it's alright with management.
I ignore you and you can ignore me. How is that?
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  #37  
Old 18th September 2017, 12:17 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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What a funny little fellow you are.

I am more than happy to ignore you whilst I go on my winning way.
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  #38  
Old 25th September 2017, 05:00 PM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Saturday at Caulfield only found 3 winners but turned a 20% profit on the day

Anaheim rated $3.91 paid $9.00
Bandipur rated $3.82 paid $6.50
Merriest rated $3.84 paid $5.50

POT % (since 22/07/2017) is 22.0%
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  #39  
Old 9th October 2017, 04:47 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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I'm replying to the heading.

From the Herald Sun last Saturday there were five media tipsters tipping on nine races. The total wins from them all was five. They all tipped Winx. They have access to all the information and are the experts. Comments anyone, I know I've got a few ideas.
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  #40  
Old 9th October 2017, 05:23 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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My opinion is they are no better than Joe Public.
A certain free to air racing channel has professional tipsters, problem is, they don't have all the information!
Tipping Winx and Humidor was an easy way to go, any mug would have looked at that and they even thought that it was a hands down quinella /exacta. I didn't think Humidor would run second. They have a segment of winners tipped which they run replays, only problem is, they had tipped numerous others which ran nowhere. Don't get me wrong, I actually watch the show because of it's entertainment value, but that's all. I find it amusing.
They also thought Almandin was unbeatable
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Last edited by Chrome Prince : 9th October 2017 at 05:26 PM.
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