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  #61  
Old 1st November 2021, 07:08 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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No Conduit Mare stuff this year I used to get them from pedigreequery but my membership has lapsed and they don't mention conduit mares anywhere nor have them appear on the example chart anymore, so didn't bother renewing. I tried to do a couple manually but too many mares were missing.

So to replace the "magic 17" number, I present: each runner's Physical biorhythm percentage. The higher the number the better. It's supposed to be for humans, but why not 'not work' for all species?


HORSEDOBPHYS%SIREDAMDOSAGE PROFILEINDEXCD
TWILIGHT PAYMENT06-May-2013-73%TEOFILODREAM ON BUDDY1-4-15-6-00.930
INCENTIVISE 22-Oct-2016-73%SHAMUS AWARDMISS ARGYLE9-7-7-2-130.81
SPANISH MISSION06-Apr-2016-14%NOBLE MISSIONLIMONAR4-3-22-7-010.11
VERRY ELLEEGANT12-Oct-201598%ZEDOPULENCE1-7-19-1-41.210
EXPLOSIVE JACK09-Nov-201798%JAKKALBERRYEXTRA EXPLOSIVE1-4-4-1-02.330.5
THE CHOSEN ONE30-Sep-2015-100%SAVABEELTHE GLITZY ONE6-15-19-2-41.970.37
DELPHI31-Jan-201714%GALILEOBYE BYE BIRDIE4-1-17-14-00.6-0.14
OCEAN BILLY05-Oct-2015-14%OCEAN PARKCOOL STORM1-13-11-1-22.290.36
SELINO05-May-2016100%CHAMPS ELYSEESAIR KISS1-15-17-1-02.580.47
JOHNNY GET ANGRY09-Nov-201798%TAVISTOCKLUMINOVA2-6-20-8-40.82-0.15
KNIGHTS ORDER05-May-201589%SO YOU THINKLAMANKA LASS6-6-21-9-01.150.21
PERSAN 22-Sep-201689%PIERROOFCOURSEICAN7-15-3-2-15.220.89
CARIF 13-Sep-201514%SO YOU THINKNORZITA2-13-19-6-01.580.28
MASTER OF WINE13-Apr-201573%MAXIOSMAGMA4-0-16-8-00.750
PONDUS08-Feb-201627%SEA THE MOONDIABLERETTE1-3-13-3-20.91-0.09
GRAND PROMENADE01-Mar-201652%CHAMPS ELYSEESZACCHERA3-8-13-0-02.690.58
MIAMI BOUND07-Nov-201689%RELIABLE MANARAPAHO MISS2-11-10-6-11.50.23
PORT GUILLAUME29-Mar-20170%LE HAVREKEIRA2-1-3-2-01.290.38
SHE'S IDEEL 05-Oct-2015-14%DUNDEELANA'S MAIL8-4-26-4-21.320.27
FUTURE SCORE28-Apr-201514%CAPE CROSSTHEOLA1-7-23-1-01.560.25
TRALEE ROSE13-Oct-2016100%TAVISTOCKSTAR OF TRALEE2-5-24-9-40.76-0.18
FLOATING ARTIST29-Feb-201673%NATHANIELMISS KENTON2-6-16-6-01.140.13
GREAT HOUSE28-Dec-2016-27%GALILEOANJA4-15-17-12-01.340.23
SIR LUCAN24-Feb-2018-40%CAMELOTSPARROW3-2-15-10-00.71-0.07


Obviously the biorhythm figure is pseudoscience - unless it works. And you can say much the same regarding dosage, as well. If you were an adherent though, you'd be looking for:

  • From left to right, the "average" 3200m race winner would have a profile like (5-5-15-4-2) (not to say that any one winner looks like that, just that all the individual numbers average out to those figures)
  • Some numbers in the rightmost position would be particularly handy (this indicates that one/some of those ancestors tended to pass on long distance prowess; though that wouldn't help much if turns into a sit and sprint)
  • An index of around 1.94
  • A CD of around 0.22
Taking all that nonsense into account, along with form, weight swings and the number I first thought of: Floating Artist looks pretty alright. Bonus: he's on the top rung of "the system", is an Aspro System pick, and has a good barrier draw...

I think I might have a 50c E/W bet on him. I wager that the bookmaker that has seemingly blocked my IP address will regret their decision now... Wasn't even scraping data from them! What's with that?!

Delphi's odds have come in and would go up a ladder rung. Note, however, that Pondus may extend the ladder higher and become the only one to score a perfect 10 in 'the system'. His odds are currently $26 at Ladbrokes (which I can still look at) but were at $21 briefly.

Both Delphi and Future Score are being examined tomorrow after exhibiting signs of lameness this morning.

Here are my picks:
1st - Floating Artist
2nd - Pondus
3rd - Sir Lucan
4th - Spanish Mission

If I can wrangle a bonus bet I'll probably put it on Incentivise, to give you some idea of the confidence I have in the above! LOL
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  #62  
Old 1st November 2021, 09:02 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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All of the below is in no particular order.

These are the ones I have as a chance to win:

Incentivise
Floating Artist
Pondus
Spanish Mission
Twighlight Payment
The Chosen One
Grande Promenade
Sir Lucan
Explosive Jack
Delphi
Great House
Trale Rose
Persan

These are the 3 I ended up with after some hard decisions:

Floating Artist
Trale Rose
Incentivise
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  #63  
Old 1st November 2021, 10:32 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Evening chaps.

My best 4 as follows:

Great House
Delphi
Tralee Rose
Twightlight Payment

Best of luck !

Cheers LG

PS exceptional analysis as always Walkermac
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  #64  
Old 2nd November 2021, 12:38 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Location: Western Australia
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As always this is the best cup form analysis around, ty Walkermac i will be making my selections based around your good work.
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  #65  
Old 2nd November 2021, 11:53 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Some people had tipped that Verry Elleegant's lead-up performances weren't those of a horse a little short of her best, but those of horse targeted at The Cup. ...I wasn't one of those people, but well done to them!

Here's the race: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CJ50vyHHzg

2021 Melbourne Cup Results
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 1st of 23$18
INCENTIVISE 2nd of 234L$2.9
SPANISH MISSION (USA) 3rd of 234.4L$10
FLOATING ARTIST (GB) 4th of 234.6L$11
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) 5th of 2310.6L$31
GRAND PROMENADE (GB) 6th of 2312.6L$15
DELPHI (IRE) 7th of 2313.35L$19
SELINO (GB) 8th of 2313.45L$81
TRALEE ROSE (NZ) 9th of 2316.7L$21
DELPHI (IRE) 7th of 2313.35L$19
SELINO (GB) 8th of 2313.45L$81
TRALEE ROSE (NZ) 9th of 2316.7L$21
SHE'S IDEEL 10th of 2317.2L$101
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) 11th of 2319.45L$13
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 12th of 2321.45L$151
GREAT HOUSE (IRE) 13th of 2321.85L$26
SIR LUCAN (IRE) 14th of 2321.95L$26
EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ) 15th of 2323.2L$51
MASTER OF WINE (GER) 16th of 2324.2L$91
PONDUS (GB) 17th of 2324.6L$21
CARIF 18th of 2325.35L$101
KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE) 19th of 2325.65L$101
PERSAN 20th of 2328.9L$31
PORT GUILLAUME (FR) 21st of 2333.15L$101
JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ) 22nd of 2341.15L$91
OCEAN BILLY (NZ) 23rd of 2353.15L$31

My fancy, Floating Artist, was unlucky to miss a place: Incentivise got in his way a few times in the straight. The trifecta was just three of the four topweights: pretty easy to pick! :P
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