Morning all! Another system which can only lead you to a fav (or near fav). All the obvious "good thing" elements, with the hope that maybe THIS time it has got in light at the weights (or at least not TOO heavy). The morning line has to confirm this (ie that it WILL be short priced), so that every other punter in town will also jump aboard, and then you'll make money. After so many run-ins with Crash I'm more convinced than ever that he is a BOOKIE or else working for one. How can it be that 98% (or so) of punters bet shorties regularly and lose, but still so many hope the shorties will SAVE them??
The bookies cheer when the longies come in (while we punters were on the shorties) because they then clean up!! You know that; I know that; we ALL know that!! What about someone offerring a (mechanical) system which targets the NON-obvios chances??
You are right W924. If you found it impossible to split two competitors it would be nothing short of idiocy to take the SHORTER price. I can't split Heads from Tails so I ignore $2.50 on Tails in fanour of $1.60 on Heads???? Get real, Crash. Are you a BOOKIE???

That's right Punter 57. I'm a Bookie [as the older members here all know:-)] and I am particularly interested in taking YOUR bets. Especially any LARGE ones on a regular basis. I'll even give you 'best on tote' for all your astute bets on pre-post 50/1 + selections that win, considering you [obviously by your betting logic] must make so many of them.

Hi Punter 57.,

"'The bookies cheer when the longies come in (while we punters were on the shorties) because they then clean up!! ''

I thought long and hard on this and years ago I decided to get in sync with the bookies so that when I cheer, so do they...well most of them anyway.. When I hand over my cash I'm backing the horses which help the bookmaker lay the fave.

I used to listen to the radio on raceday mornings and laugh at the bookies picks given out. Talk about a conspiracy...there was just no incentive for their info to be accurate. In the early days of cellphones, a bookie conversation was tapped and it suggested that the bookies colluded into coming up with thier radio bookie bets for the day..all designed to throw the punter off the scent.

Figured that, if my bets ever got big enough, I did not want anything ,or anyone conspiring, to ensure my bets did not win. Big punters, owners and even a big bookmaker, ( in Melb years ago ) confirmed to me that things are not always as squeaky clean as we would like to think they are.

There is a lot riding on faves..and sometimes the horse is carrying far too much pressure (if you know what I mean) to actually win. So rather than join the herd, I decided long ago to be "the bookies friend" as much as possible.

here is my raw plan from which another seven plans a filtered.


Saturdays and public holidays only..(public holidays optional)


1.consider only top three rated selections as supplied free per www.tab.com.au (trb). if three horses are all rated as 100 each these are your top 3 selections to consider....look no further down. Conversly e.g if top horse 100 ,2nd horse say 98 and three horses say equal at 96..all those horses are to be considered as in the top 3rated selections. (this is easier in practice than it looks here on paper.)

2. eliminate all horses 1st or second up from a spell..horse must have at least two starts since a spell.


3. eliminate all hurdles, maidens. Eliminate two year old races From Aug 1st thru to Jan 1st

4. eliminate from consideration, all the top three rated horses that are paying less than 9.00 to win on the morning tote win pools.(ensure that the win pool has reached 10k before using this elimination.) Alternatively, you can use the morning line prices in "The Asutralian"..(this is what I used to do when I had access to them, but I've had to modify that now that I no longer live in Australia.)

If two or more horses qualify after these rules are applied..eliminate the race from consideration altogether.. (If you must bet, I suggest backing the longer priced selection, but I personally dont do this).Sure you will miss a winner or two..but generally speaking, the race is telling me that there are too many chances..ie very open race.)

we'll call the final selection "Q" for no particular reason

This final selection (Q) may also qualify for the following plans...

QNR..not mentioned/ listed in the top 4 selections as per www.nswtab.com tipster selections, (Ian Craig for sydney). It can be a late mail selection
, but must not be sleceted in the first four tipster selections.

QLSW a final selection which is also a last start winner

QNRLSW a final selection that is both a non rated (mentioned) horse and is also a last start winner

TRQ a final selection which was top rated by the www.tab.com.au ratings. This includes horses that are top equal rated with one or more other horses.

TRQNR a final selection which is both top rated and not mentioned in the first four www.nswtab.com.au tipster selections

TRQLSW a final selection which is both top rated by the rating service and is also a last start winner

TRQNRLSW a final selection which is top rated, not mentioned and a last start winner

This means that a selection may be backed for a maximum of units if it qualifies in all 8 plans.

In Sydney..this year since Feb, level stakes win only

Q= 86 bets, 9 wins ...10% ...strike rate ...16% return on outlay (current run of outs 9.. highest outs= 17)

QNR 42 bets, 8 winners ...135% on outlay (current outs 2..longest 12)

QLSW 23 bets. 5 winners 216% on outlay (current outs 4..longest 7)

QNRLSW 12 bets 4 winners 394% (curent outs 3..longest 4)

TRQ 15 bets 4 winners 255% (current outs 1..longest 6)

TRQLSW 3 bets 2 wins 1350% (current outs 1 longest 1)

TRQNR 9 bets 4 wins 529% ( current outs 1 longest 2)

TRQNRLSW 2 bets 2 wins 1750% (current outs 0 longest 0)


These rules and plans have not been devised and applied retrospectively to create winners....They represent what I have done physically.

I am used to long runs of outs..ive ridden them for several years....and I hate losing on short priced faves. i especially like longer priced winners, so this works very well for me. It wont suit a lot of people and I have no fear of ruining prices by posting here..Even people who knew me and wanted to win could not follow this on the punt..even when I handed them the selections on a plate....Such is the nature of punting.

The choice of ratings service, and the win pool used, do not really matter, as far as I am concerned. Other ratings services may work as well. if not better. I have merely used what is freely available..available free.

What works for me now worked 15 yrs ago..it does not seem to have changed..I have had to modify by using different ratings services now and online win pools due to circumstances which have changed over the years, but the principles remain the same.

In esence this works, I believe, partly because of the fact that the horses backed by these methods do not have the bulk of betting money riding on them. These horses often win at attractive odds for owners and connections .Sure these selections usually shorten up over the course of the day..not always .but usually.You will note that I havent set an upper limit of odds available..only a minimum. (8-1 in the old school scale). Many a horse just fails to qualify because it doesnt quite make the 9.00 by the time that the win pool is 10k....so be it..you have to draw the line somewhere.

I like the idea of using a win pool in the home state in which the race is being run..i.e nswtab.com.au for Sydney. The vic tab is terrible for slow win pool updates on Sat mornings... ..so I usually go to nswtab and use their pool for a particular race..if it reaches 10k before the Vic one shows up.. using Supertab may be a better option...or maybe someone has a better place they can suggest to get accurate actual win pool divies. May be using say Iasbet fixed odds prices or thier approx win divvies as per the various tab prices would better suit some people. I use a 10K win pool as a starting point to try and get a more genuine price. Obviously, smaller win pools are more easily distorted by single large bets than a bigger winpool. it seems senseless to me to use tab prices when the win pool may be only a thousand dollars or so.

If you like to know what your bets are as early as possible, then I suggest you use the morning line prices from the newspaper..whatever you choose..stick with it and make it a constant...I used to do this when I lived in Australia..pre internet..

The original selection rules for "Q" came from a ratings service subscriber back in the early 1980's in Melbourne....back in the double overlay days when a good rating service could come up with great value selections...and the guys who did the ratings were also punting their ratings on track. They cleaned up big time for a time before their triumphs came under notice in the ring....

Brisbane is early days for me..too early to tell how that will go...(29 outs so far) I may also monitor (Mark Reads ?)ratings on Q-TAB for Brsibane..if I think TRb isnt good enough...

Melb is running at (9% loss overall this year so far, with a current run of outs of 9 and a highest of 31 outs on the Q plan. I am not phased by this, because I know that it doesnt take much to reverse the loss into a profit and there is safety in running three states., rather than just relying upon one. Even though I know that Sydney seems to be the most profitable, I'll continue to run with Melb and Bris in my portfolio. When one is up the other may be down...

One final observation..these final selections are seldom listed as "Latemail" selections as per www.nswtab.com.au ...in fact I worry when they are....not so much for the shortening of price, but more so for the fact that they dont seem to win...something to think about...

I welcome any suggestions

w924,

I like the largest number possible in a horse's last start with this system. 1215 is a lot better than 5211 as far as odds go if it wins. Last start winners kill odds. This system has a lot of shorteners and short priced winners [but rarely odds on], but a surprising amount of drifters getting up at $12 to $14. I have tried PP up to $9 with this system over hundreds of bets and they just don't get up often enough to pay. $7 seems to be the magic mark of paying divies.

Interesting..I would have thought that the difference in win rates of $7 versus $9 would have been minimal, but if your stats state otherwise... I wont argue with that. lol.

Re "last start winners kill odds" yes sometimes ..but not always..esp if they are seemingly rising in class, or moving interstate or a long distance to race....

I do have a bit of a phobia of backing horses that have already won their last two starts.....esp if their win rate is not flash...no factual evidence here..just pure superstition lol. (i still have to back back them if they come up in my plans)

Speaking of last start winners..anyone following the Bet Selectors last start winners longshot plan? (as referred to in Punters Choice) ...I'm not..but it sounds interesting and more in line with I like best...

Shaun I'd be keen to read any of those posts that you mentioned from that site if you care to post them here..they sound juicy..

All the best

w924

I really feel that your system should be in a thread of it's own, don't you think? It might get awfully messy here otherwise.

W924. Haven't had time to digest all of post 13 but I like the point of setting a minimum price and sticking to it; the higher the better. I especially like avoiding "the people's choice" and surely everyone knows it's far, far easier to "pull" a horse than to make one win (ie pull the fav/favs). Also like what you say in Post 15. After a torrid time explaining similar in another thread recently ("overs") it's heartening to find someone else who hasn't been conned by the bookies and their shorties. I will grab my records and have a good look at your suggestions this evening.
Crash. Re your Bookie challenge: I am NOT INTERESTED in wiping you out. Don't you understand? God how must it be to be a girl on a date with YOU!!! You are asking to lose SERIOUS money.
Putting that "I want your money" thing aside (post 12); your pride may prevent publicly admitting anything but despite that I really hope you make a bundle next Saturday if you've suddenly thought up a "new" selection method that lands a few in the 50s. This is not a joke. Good luck; you know what to look for. Cheers

http://www.midcoast.com.au/~turfacts/turfacts.html

A lot of the links on the page don't work as the site has not been updated for a long time but i did like some of the money managment stuff and the staking

Hi w924,

What a mamoth and interesting post. Will have much to 'sleep on' tonight. Thanks for sharing your ideas with us

You certainly must be a bit of a whizz on the keyboard. It took four A4 pages just to download it!

Regards.

Hi Punter 57

I'm with you,all these systems are just recycled versions of the same thing.

I and a few others have tried to provide a few alternatives but time after time nobody replies to them,i guess everyone is too set in their ways.


Crash,

Two points about your system i'd like to add,

1-I've always found the 4th last start to be irrelevant,the last 3 starts are a much better guide.

2-Your comment that i like the most relating to this sytem is

"I like the largest number possible in a horse's last start with this system. 1215 is a lot better than 5211 as far as odds go if it wins"

Now your thinking outside the box.................