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  #21  
Old 17th March 2006, 11:58 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Bhagwan - I like your term "shifting sands", it is so appropriate for horse racing.

As to the DIST question. You will see that Muswellbrook R9 that all horses except No.5 (3 points) have been allocated 2 points. I'm assuming no.5 is the only horse to have run over the race distance. But why do all the others have 2 points? I would assume that any horse with a previous run closer to today's distance who did not perform too badly would have a higher/different rating to those that have never run close to the distance. Anyway...

Not a good day yesterday. Three placegetters from the five selections paying $4.50.

Five selections today:
Canberra R2 no.12 - Jade By Me
Mackay R8 no.4 - Hardcore
Moonee Valley R5 no.1 - The Big Ask
Moonee Valley R6 no.1 - Mr. Tambourineman ($17 pre-post)
Moonee Valley R8 no.1 - Jester Smoothie.
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  #22  
Old 17th March 2006, 12:18 PM
KennyVictor KennyVictor is offline
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Hi Michael,
MV8 is a strange one it looks like it has two qualifiers to me. Swit also scores 42. I see no jockey is named yet on the neural site for Swit although it scores 5 in both the categories we are looking at. Do you have rules when two horses qualify?
KV
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  #23  
Old 18th March 2006, 12:01 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, K.V. if there are two on equal points I only take the top selection. Maybe this may not be the way to go???

Yesterday was a complete wipeout. I never have been enthused about the $ algorhythm but threw it into the method for no particular reason. Omitting it there would have only been two selections yesterday which both lost, but the previous day there would have been four selections for three placegetters paying $4.50, and on Wednesday the selections would have been unchanged, which were ten selections for eight placegetters paying $13.00 which overall is not too bad. So from today I'll delete the $ category and see how it goes, using a 40 point total as the minimum.

Fourteen selections:
Randwick R3 no.2 - Mi Casa
Randwick R4 no.2 - Casino Prince
Randwick R6 no.6 - Mindreader
Randwick R8 no.7 - Retail Therapy
Randwick R9 no.6 - Mosso
Flemington R7 no.6 - Mr Murphy ($51 pre-post???)
Flemington R8 no.1 - Serenade Rose
Cheltenham R6 no.3 - Terango
Geelong R4 no.7 - Pride Of Westbury
Geelong R6 no.6 - last Waltz
Gold Coast R1 no.8 - Valconic
Ascot R2 no.3 - Silver Seam
Ascot R3 no.2 - Graduate Boy
Ascot R7 no.7 - Jonnie Roucke.
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  #24  
Old 19th March 2006, 11:58 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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From today any selections that is at a double-figure price in the pre-post will be omitted. There have been two such selections and they both were unplaced. Maybe thay might pop up every now and then but it can kill a strike rate.

Only three selections today:
Canberra R1 no.6 - The Boxer
Devenport R7 no.10 - Coogee Beach
Pinjarra R5 no.2 - Bawclass.
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  #25  
Old 20th March 2006, 12:09 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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I'm now on broadband and the speed is brilliant!!!!

I'm again changing the rules to this system, and hope...

Eight selections:
Armidale R1 no.1 - Highly Thought
Armidale R2 no.7 - Last Little Indian
Armidale R4 no.3 - Leenahorn
Armidale R5 no.1 - Annjolino
Armidale R6 no.1 - Autumn Showers
Narromine R2 no.2 - Fuji Girl
Narromine R6 no.4 - Lester Cove
Mildura R4 no.1 - Zafran
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  #26  
Old 21st March 2006, 11:37 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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From yesterday's eight selections there were three winners totalling $13.70, and six placegetters totalling $10.20.

Analysing previous results there should be 2 categories to the system, and one of them has outperformed the other. I'll call the best one method A and the other method B. Yesterday there were 4 selections for A, for two winners paying $9.50, and all 4 placed paying $7.20. I'll now list both systems, and again hope there's no "shifting sands".

Method A
Warwick Farm R2 no.8 - Standover Lady

Method B
Warwick Farm R5 no.6 - Oakdale Girl
Hamilton R2 no.3 - Turning Yallah.
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  #27  
Old 22nd March 2006, 11:04 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Yesterday the sole selection in method A ran second paying $1.80

Five system A selections today:
Newcastle R1 no.1 - Buccaneer
Sandown R6 no.1 - Stormy Youth
Eagle Farm R5 no.8 - On The Nose
Gawler R6 no.3 - Leta
Gawler R8 no.8 - Saratoga Lady

Yesterday the two system B selections were unplaced.

Four system B selections today:
Sandown R2 no.2 - Miss Starnee
Eagle Farm R1 no.3 - Jerrybuilt
Gawler R2 no.8 - Giggling Girl
Gawler R5 no.2 - Western Jester.

Last edited by michaelg : 22nd March 2006 at 11:19 AM. Reason: Scratching
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  #28  
Old 23rd March 2006, 11:06 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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From today I'll only show the A system selections.

Yesterday I incorrectly included Eagle Farm R5 no.8 as a selection, because it only had one race start it was not a qualifier. Since listing them here, there have been 9 selections for 3 winners paying a total of $14.20, and all 9 have placed paying $15.10. Hopefully it will continue.

Five selections today.
Hawkesbury R3 no.3 - Forty Winks
Bendigo R1 no.1 - Going Dutch
Albury R5 no.8 - Selma
Albury R9 no.2 - Sylvanna
York R4 no.4 - Buckleup Buster

York R1 no.11 would have been a selection except that it is at double-figures ($13) pre-post.
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  #29  
Old 24th March 2006, 10:19 AM
Stix Stix is offline
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Michaelg

The system is working well, not as successful yesterday, but that happens. I like the different angle you take on systems/methods.

Would you have your stats favouring a particular State, Jockey, Trainer or Course?

Just curious.

Good Luck
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  #30  
Old 24th March 2006, 10:53 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, Stix. I haven't yet had enough selections to see if any state stands out, but from my neural experience I don't think there should be any difference in the long run. The only anomaly I've found is that with the racing in big cities the neurals seem to allot more points especially in the JA and JT categories. For example, the top jockeys at Nowra will be given much less points than the top jockeys in Sydney. So if a system is based on the total of neural points then it can be somewhat distorted. I suppose allowances have to made for this in some cases.

Yesterday was a losing day. From the five selections there were no winners, and two placegetters paying $3.10. It is a Place system, but as the Win bet has done so well I decided to record them. The "non selection" yesterday that was $13 pre-post started highly in the market and placed paying $1.70.

Three selections today:
Rocky R3 no.3 - Last Humam
Rocky R8 no.9 - Truss
Sale R5 no.14 - Willingani
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