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  #11  
Old 5th September 2006, 05:03 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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michaelg,

Check out dynamic form for the betfair prices close to closing. They save them so you can go back and check.

Add about 10% on average to this and you should work out roughly what your worst case scenerio is.

Good Luck.
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  #12  
Old 6th September 2006, 11:45 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Thanks, wesmip1. I wasn't aware of that feature. The loser on Sunday that paid $2.50 with NSW TAB paid $2.92 on the Batfair final lay price. Yesterday's selection lay price was $11.50 which is a worry because it was $2.80 pre-post.

To date there have been nine selections for only one winner of $2.92.

Three selections today:
Werribee R4 no.10 - Angkhasa ($3.50)
Dombeen R7 no.4 - Zoe's Lad ($3.50)
Belmont R4 no.2 - Precisely ($2.80)

I notice that today's neurals include new Zealand racing. I have looked at a few races there, and on a setting of 1, the JA, TA and JT categories have allocated every horse 3 points in all three categories.

Last edited by michaelg : 6th September 2006 at 11:48 AM.
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  #13  
Old 7th September 2006, 11:13 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Yesterday's three selections were beaten.

To date there have been twelve slections for one winner of $2.90.

One selection today;
Ipswich R1 no.6 - Social Style ($2.80).
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  #14  
Old 8th September 2006, 11:18 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Yesterday's only selection was unplaced.

To date there have been 13 selections for one winner of $2.92.

Five selections today. Can't agree with some of them as they look like they have a very good chance of winning, but the neurals "say" they should be beaten. We'll see what happens...

Canberra R5 no.2 - Wrapped In Gold ($3.00)
Moe R6 no.3 - Cyclonic Bay ($3.00)
Cairns R3 no.3 - Love Your Ways ($3.50)
Cairns R4 no.1 - Digitup ($2.80)
Cairns R6 no.2 - Crafty King ($2.80)
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  #15  
Old 8th September 2006, 09:00 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Michael,

Nice work again today with no winners ... although close with a couple of the selections. They all started fav or second fav so maybe this could work for you. So far so good.

Always interested in your little systems as I like the neurals.

Good Luck.
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  #16  
Old 9th September 2006, 10:18 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Yes, it's doing quite well but I have my usual doubts it will continue. Time will tell...

To date there have been 18 selections for one winner of $2.92.

Four selections today:
Randwick R7 no.1 - Eremein ($2.70)
Flemington R9 no.12- Rewaaya ($3.30)
Gold Coast R5 no.3 - Little Darling ($3.00)
Toowoomba R1 no.1 - Anduril ($3.50)
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  #17  
Old 10th September 2006, 11:02 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Angry

A disaster yesterday. The three selections all won paying $10.30 which was the final lay price with Betfair.

To date there have been 21 selections for 4 winners paying $13.22.

Two selections today:
Sun Coast R4 no.6 - Ally Bee ($2.80)
Sun Coast R5 no.6 - Belle Tricks ($2.50)
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  #18  
Old 11th September 2006, 11:19 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Yesterday's two selections were beaten.

To date there have been 23 selections for 4 winners of $13.22.

Three selections today:
Bathurst R1 no.1 - Amiawinner ($2.80)
Bathurst R2 no.10 - Loving me ($2.80)
Bathurst R7 no.4 - One Giant Leap ($3.20)
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  #19  
Old 11th September 2006, 09:50 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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michaelg,

The 2 great things about laying favs are :

1. When they do win they only pay low odds so its easy to make it back
2. There is always a market for them on betfair without having to offer overs.

Just look at today ... One winner around $2.60 and you layed 3 horses. A small profit once you take out the 5% fee.

Good Luck.
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  #20  
Old 12th September 2006, 05:42 AM
crash crash is offline
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Tread carefully. Long term and overall [since betfair started in England], layers and backers are about even win/loss.
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