Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #21  
Old 21st February 2007, 08:08 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 5,816
Default

Crash,

Did you take that $7.00 early in the day when there was little action, if you did, it was my lay bet.

It had nothing to do with handicapping, I made a lay book of 122% on the race and cleaned up nicely.
That's the beauty of an exchange, traders, handicappers and layers to a book can all make money at the same time.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 300,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Last edited by Chrome Prince : 21st February 2007 at 08:11 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 21st February 2007, 10:53 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,257
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I think anyone serious about laying might be wise to get their head around English racing where the big pools and action are.
Yes it would be difficult to replicate Maria's winnings given the average size of the Betfair pools on OZ races.

Glad your getting the swing of Betfair though Crash.
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 22nd February 2007, 06:37 AM
crash crash is offline
Suspended.
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,736
Default

Thanks AP and yes I think it would be diabolically difficult to repeat that girl's efforts here. Not enough action through the week.

Chrome, it might have been some of your money I won. Still, you had a win anyway so that's good. Great race that one.
Wide barriers with a lot of runners get good odds and I'm always looking for Backmarkers ready to win who strike a lucky wide draw where they can slot into the rear unhindered. My Grandmother could bring them home from such an easy position.
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 22nd February 2007, 09:48 AM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,257
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AngryPixie

On another topic, has anybody done any work on laying a single runner vs. backing the rest of the field? Seems to me you'd be able to skim a few more % if you saved on the roughies and backed the rest.

Any thoughts?
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 22nd February 2007, 11:46 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 7,200
Wink

Angry Pixie, I looked at this a few times about a year ago and comparing percentages according to my calcs it seemed better to lay one horse than backing every other. However, I did not eliminate any of the horses as you suggest because I felt that the horse(s) you leave out will sooner or later win resulting in a huge loss. But that's only my opinion/observation.


The fave was beaten in yesterday's race resulting in a profit of 0.95 units.

One race today:
Gosford race 7.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 23rd February 2007, 11:08 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 7,200
Wink

The fave in yesterday's race was beaten.

One race today:
Moonee Valley race 6.
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 23rd February 2007, 11:58 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 7,200
Wink

There is a second race today to lay the fave:

Darwin race 4.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 24th February 2007, 11:43 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 7,200
Wink

Yesterday from the two races the fave won one of them paying $4.30 for a loss of 2.35 units.

There have now been 4 races for one winner for a loss of 0.45 units. Checking past results if I had limited the fields to a minimum of 10 runners instead of 12 as I have been doing then the method would be in profit. From today I will also list them and see what happens.

Six races today:
Caulfield race 2 (10 starters)
Caulfield race 9 (13)
Eagle Farm race 5 (10)
Kembla race 5 (10)
Ballina race 5 (12)
Ballina race 6 (12)
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 24th February 2007, 11:14 PM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 850
Thumbs up

Only the one spoilt things today, Michael. Well done!

Referring back to your other thread where I pointed out that we should all be laying the Brisbane Unitab favourites --- all lost today. So that makes the score 35/40 faves have lost over the last five Sats. Actually it was a poor day for faves (UniTab) in Sydney too. Only one got up.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 25th February 2007, 11:17 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 7,200
Wink

That is a very good result, Merriguy. But maybe there has been a period of time when the fave won a disaportionate amount of races. Hopefully Wesmip1 reads this thread which might prompt him to check his records and see how the Qld Saturday fave has fared over a longer period of time.

I will split the Lay the Fave method to show those races that have over 11 starters and also under 12 starters to see if there is merit in either/both/none methods.

Over 11 starters.
Yesterday's three races were successful.
There has now been 6 successes from 7 races for a profit of 2.40 units.

Two races today:
Bathurst race 2
Pinjarra race 7


Under 12 starters.
There was one "accident" (with apologies to Maria) from yesterday's three races for a loss of 0.60 units.

Three races today.
Bathurst race 6
Launceston race 1
Launceston race 6
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 08:13 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655