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  #11  
Old 16th August 2001, 01:00 AM
Greg
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Thanx Matt, that sounds like a great system. I'll have to check it out. And honestly it's probably as good as any other "system". Last Melb Cup day my sister virtually used a pin and came out ahead.
pengo is dead right - you need to understand the market. What is really needed is a combination of good selections and smart staking.
Maybe we should all learn to be bookies.
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  #12  
Old 16th August 2001, 03:07 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Greg
Funny you should say we should all learn to be bookies. Several months ago I placed an ad trying to sell what I do, what in effect is bet like a bookie. Had several interested parties, but no takers. The other week on the Randwick greyhound track I had my best day yet, and I don't even do the form!
Good bookieing, I mean punting.
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  #13  
Old 21st August 2001, 07:31 PM
Tony Tony is offline
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If you don't mind revealing, how many horses per race are you backing using your
bookie-esque system Mark?
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  #14  
Old 22nd August 2001, 05:10 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Tony
It depends on the market. In a race of 10 starters I would be on between 7 & 9 of the runners. Have a read of my posting under SUNLINE.
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  #15  
Old 22nd August 2001, 07:55 PM
Tony Tony is offline
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Yes, I read that Mark and searched all the Sydney Saturday races this year with 8 to 12 starters. Out of the 150 races found there were 50 winners in the 6/1 or better range (can only search on tote odds but close enough for the purposes of this exercise) These 50 averaged 15/1 or close enough. If the favourite averaged 7/4 in these races, you are left with about 70% even if your market is 105 which I can't ever remember seeing in Melbourne unless you are talking top of the flucs across the board. At this rate backing every horse bar the favourite in these races was a very big losing game unless (a) you are very selective which race you enter, how to without considering form? (b) you lay more than 1 horse as you appear to from the above post, again how without form.
I am not doubting you are doing it Mark just trying to get you to divulge a bit more of your method which understandably you may decline.
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  #16  
Old 23rd August 2001, 03:57 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Tony
You're right, I'm not going to give everything away, because I have tried to market what I do at what I thought to be be an extremely reasonable rate. Initial enquiries were met with a mix of scepticism (fair enough) to laziness, i.e "that won't work" or "sounds too complicated to me".
I bet on a lot more Syd than Melb, and Brisbane in a blue moon & Adelaide in a polka dot moon. Yes I am selective, but not by form study but by market structure. A race with a short priced fav or 2 right in the market are ususally good races, UNLESS the % are too high, say 115+ on top odds. A bad race would be 4/1,4/1,9/2,9/2,7/1,7/1,20/1,20/1, 111% win and 299% place, the place % is the key, and how much you have on each selection varies.
In your example did you look at the price of the placed horses as well?, & your research showed that 1 in 3 winners were 6/1+ & averaged 15/1, so 33% winning races at 15/1, sounds good to me. You ask if the fav was 7/4; there have been races where equal favs have been say 2/1 each, that leaves me with 39%, not 70, there have been races where there were 3 well in the market, say 2/1, 5/2 & 7/2, and predicted to run 1-2-3 by all the so-called experts, that leaves me with 22%. There have been races where the fav or favoured horse has won, roughies have run the places & I have won or received most of my stake back. What I'm saying is that it's not all cut & dried straight 'dutch-book' staking, and the staking is the part that I'm definately not giving away. 2 last very rare examples. Race 1 has 2 @ evens & 6 @ 100/1. Win = 106%, place = 184%. Race 2 has 12 runners all @ 11/1. Win = 100% BUT the place = closer to 320%. A big difference. Who knows, if this keeps up Propun may offer me a job as some sort of market analyst!!!??? Anyone truly interested can email me on LynneMark@bigpond.com

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  #17  
Old 28th August 2001, 06:50 PM
Tony Tony is offline
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Mark, I can't retrieve place prices using my software so I can't answer your question.
Your approach seems like one that relies on a feel for a set of circumstances that is not easily transferrable to someone not accustomed to observing data from such a perspective. Like all approaches to form study, beauty is in the eye of the practiced observor.
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  #18  
Old 31st August 2001, 09:39 AM
taipan
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Mark,
What would the possibilities be for your system if you were able to offload runners that you had backed, by laying them off a short time later at a shorter price?
Taipan

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  #19  
Old 1st September 2001, 09:43 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Taipan
That would be the icing on the cake, but we all know that sort of thing doesn't go in betting rings. Just like nobody bets on protests.
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  #20  
Old 13th September 2001, 12:11 PM
cameron398 cameron398 is offline
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Hi Cathy - you may like to talk with me. Email me direct on cameron398@ozemail.com.au re a trifecta system which you may be interested in...
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