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  #1  
Old 21st October 2011, 09:54 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink Lay The Fave?

Here's something I've been looking at on and off since a couple of months ago but never kept any records because of my interest with lay the field methods.

1) Default neurals except CF, TIM & DLR on a setting of zero.
2) Total points of top selection must be under 120.
3) Minimum of 9 runners
4) Lay the fave.

Yesterday I layed the fave (NSW TAB fave) for $5.00 in five qualifying races for no accidents, so I decided to check yesterday in full and also Wed's results.

On Wed there were 2 accidents but 18 smiles. Going on the lay price that is shown on Betfair's Racing Form and Results website the total liability of the two accidents was 5.02 units but the 18 smiles came to a profit of 17.10 units.

And yesterday there were 13 races for no accidents which comes to a profit of 12.35 units.

It makes me wish I had layed the fave in qualifying races from day one. However if I did I might have regretted it. There's only one way to know if there's any merit in it the method.

I'll list today's races later on and see how they go.
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  #2  
Old 21st October 2011, 11:46 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

I'll be laying the Betfair fave in as many of the following races I can, providing I'm at my computer.

Coffs
Races 2, 3, 4, 6, 7

Ipswich
Races 3, 4

M'brook
Races 2, 4, 6, 7, 8

W'ratta
Races 1, 3, 4, 7

G'ton
Races 3, 4, 5, 6

Because the fave wins almost 1 in 3 races I feel somewhat uncomfortable in laying them, but who knows?
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  #3  
Old 21st October 2011, 11:56 AM
beton beton is offline
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Good luck Michaelg.
That fav wins in indirect proportion to the price. It also wins in direct proportion to class. It's Friday and the class is down. Who knows Beton
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  #4  
Old 21st October 2011, 01:11 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Thanks, Beton.

The first qualifying race (W'ratta R1) has already been run. The Betfair fave was unplaced. My computer has a mind of its own and often disconnects itself from the net when it feels like doing so. Unfortunately this happened before I could lay the fave - bummer!
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  #5  
Old 21st October 2011, 01:34 PM
beton beton is offline
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I had that problem for months. Telstra sent a new modem, then another and finally a third saying that it was my computor. I still have the third sitting on my floor. I kept saying that it was their system. Apart from putting in the first two modems (which didn't solve it) I did nothing. The problem has gone away. It used to drop out predominantly in the first hour of business, never once dropped out on the weekend or public holiday.
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  #6  
Old 21st October 2011, 01:50 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

I've had this problem for years. One of my friends has the same problem, and like you a new modem did not fix it.

If I leave my computer on for more than 1.5 hours it usually disconnects, and their are other times when it will disconnect for no reason that I'm aware of.

I layed the fave in today's second qualifying race - it was unplaced.
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  #7  
Old 21st October 2011, 03:15 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Is your modem connected by usb or ethernet cable?

Go into Control Panel, system, device manager.
Right click your ethernet or USB ports.

Turn power saving off.

Problem solved
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  #8  
Old 21st October 2011, 03:28 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

Thanks, Chrome.

I don't know whether it is a usb or ethernet modem.

I've gone into the control panel but cannot follow your instructions.

I've got a friend who is familiar with computers. When he phones I'll ask him to have a look at your posting and see if he can help me.
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  #9  
Old 21st October 2011, 03:48 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Hi michaelg,

You could lay all horses in selected races at SP, setting a max price of $3.50 - 4?

You'd need $600 in your Betfair account but you wouldn't need to sit at your computer.

Just an idea.

The Schmile
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  #10  
Old 21st October 2011, 03:51 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg

Because the fave wins almost 1 in 3 races I feel somewhat uncomfortable in laying them, but who knows?


michaelg, if you're going to be a successful layer you have to look at things the other way around...........2 out of 3 lose !!!
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