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  #11  
Old 9th January 2013, 11:12 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Hi Garyf,

Thanks for the input!

I was thinking a track condition filter might be a positive one. Breaking down the distance factor may pay divvies also, as Bel Esprit's don't seem to get much past 1400m for instance.

The cogs keep turning!
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  #12  
Old 9th January 2013, 11:16 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Question

Should have mentioned so for the Fastnet Rock breed today,
In the other 2 states.

Q/M=NIL.

A/P-Gawler.

L= Poor betting Race(maiden)(4G)(9 sts)(long distance)(G3)(8 days)
W= Poor betting Race (maiden)(5G)(8 sts)(sprint distance)(G3)(7 days).

Good Luck with it.

Cheers.
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  #13  
Old 9th January 2013, 11:25 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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More quality input Garyf,

This is the kind of analysis I'm looking for from this thread!

Keep it flowing.
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  #14  
Old 10th January 2013, 07:03 AM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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I focus on the breeding side and may have some input later...have to go out for a while
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  #15  
Old 10th January 2013, 08:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CosMos
I focus on the breeding side and may have some input later...have to go out for a while

Cosmos. I had a look at your website, very impressive. On a side issue to lighten things up. Can you see anything written in the stars to help us.

You might think with your website and interests and my user name their might be a system in their somewhere.

Nah! didn't think so.

Star
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  #16  
Old 10th January 2013, 09:19 AM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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nah Star...I go on reality ....thanks about the website but haven't done anything with it for a while and have changed some of my thoughts on breeding which I must update sometime.

One thing that may help to pick a winner is instead of using the top sires on the sire's premiership, use the top sires that have the best consistency. I looked at all sires in NZ for a specific season then a further 2 seasons and found that the average for all sires totalwinners/totall runners is around 9-11%. Therefore, any sire rating greater than 11% consistency should figure in any decision. Also, track conditions can be broken down this way as well...even distance if you wish.

For instance, using Fastnet Rock mentioned above: all progeny have run 4598 times for 733 total wins (16%)....individual runners 466 for 300 individual winners (64.4%)...the last 5 seasons show a consistency of 11%, 19%, 17%, 15% and 14% this season.

Class wise: Fastnet Rock has had 57 individual runners in G1 races for 12 wins (21.1%)....139 total runs for 21 wins (15%) to date

Age wise: 2yo consistency is 15%, 3yo 18%, 4yo 17%, 5yo+ 9% to date

Track conditions: Good 16%, Dead 16%, Slow 13%, Heavy 14% to date

Distance: strong consistency to 2099m

http://horseform.racingandsports.co...E8FDB40922E346D

Note that I have found some errors: eg. Fastnet Rock over Zabeel mares is shown in the above website as 8 individual starters, 3 indiv. winners. In fact the RISA website shows this cross as 18 runners, 12 winners, 3 stakes winners including Planet Rock, Atlantic Jewel and Curved Ball.

I like to look at the sire/broodmare sire cross for a positive insight in to future foals.

http://www.risaform.com.au/Pedigree...?reffno=8448805

Another angle is to look at the dam and granddam progeny performance...if either have produced a stakes winner and have a positive winners/foals ratio, this is a good pointer for future winners.

Just some insight in to what I look for and something to think about further.
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  #17  
Old 10th January 2013, 09:23 AM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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"use the top sires that have the best consistency"...to clarify, use the top consistent sires...there will be some sires that do not figure in the top of the sire's premiership and their winners may pay more...
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  #18  
Old 10th January 2013, 12:22 PM
TheSchmile TheSchmile is offline
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Hi Cosmos,

Great feedback, thank you!!

Perhap's the Redoute's Choice and Fastnet Rock progeny might be over bet in many instances??

I was very interested in your point regarding the average win percentages hovering around the 10% mark for most sires.

Perhaps it would be more fruitful looking at the next 20-40 Sires?

Thanks again Cosmos!
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  #19  
Old 10th January 2013, 12:23 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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Cool

Hi T.S.


With the good breakdown by Cosmos would the trainers,
And a price for each horse, be it open, t/fluct, p/post, s/p, etc,
Help in the equation, several horses i raced years ago,
A particular trainer knew the traits and characteristics of the,
Breed and had good success with them hence the trainer angle.

The breeding part is way out of my league but presents a fascinating approach,
To picking winners, well to me anyway.

Cheers.
Gary.
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  #20  
Old 10th January 2013, 12:33 PM
CosMos CosMos is offline
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On the R&S website above that I got the data from they also show data for trainers that trained the progeny...also tracks where progeny raced
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