Hi everyone,

I have been an interested bystander to the forum for a little while now, and will now follow the lead set by Dave in his “40 year horse racing system addict!” and post for the first time.

My back story is nowhere near as entertaining as Dave’s. In fact some of the form guides he added to the bonfire were older than me. I have been following racing casually for about 15 years and have really set about getting serious about in in the last 5 years.

It was blind luck that I stumbled upon this site and was immediately taken by the willingness of people to share and discuss ideas, and what set this apart from most other forums I have seen is that the positivity far outweighed any negativity.

I too look forward to learning from many of you and hopefully contributing in a positive way as we all continue our journey to punting nirvana.

This brings me to my first question. I have been dutch betting my top 3 selections in one of my systems. I have read on other posts about finding value, overlays and going broke if we take under the odds. If the definition of overlay betting is simply “securing your value prices or better”, then which example below is the overlay?

July 2 - 2013 - Bathurst Race 1
Rating Market % Odds Market %
1 Big City Dreams 3.5 28.6% 26 3.8% Overlay
2 Budderoo Dragon 3.5 28.6% 2.8 35.7% Underlay
14 Shawinigan 4.3 23.3% 10 10.0% Overlay
80.4% 49.6% Overlay

My question is, if you were dutch betting these ratings, would you dutch bet the overlays (the 1 and 14 only) and leave the underlay (2) out, or do you dutch bet all 3 as you are securing an overlay on all 3 selections based on the total market percentage.
For my 2 cents worth, I backed all 3 as I always do and the 2 was able to win.

Cheers

Brett

I apologise for the formatting of the table............ Rookie error

I would bet all of them as the underlays are usually going to win their fair share. Your ratings identified the chances. The prices you get are what the market also thinks. If it agrees with your selections then the prices are going to be shorter.

Thanks UB

Brett, there is another consideration not covered by Rating Market %, Odds Market % and that's Win Strike Rate %.
That's the historical % of a selection by order of favouritism based on price actually winning as proven by historical results. If you go to my thread "Win % SR Ready Reckoner" you can explore that subject. This tool is useful to spot your over/underlays.
RP

Good to see you have also put your toe into the waters of a terrific forum.

Personally as mentioned I back max of two horses. Its great if both are in my system. However backing the favourite or 2nd favourite with good form and weight etc as a saver is a good idea. I always bet to win more on my selection and to win a smaller amount on the saver.

As you can imagine over 40 years of trying ideas Dutch betting was often on the radar. I have had extremely good runs backing up to 6 horses, when the prices allowed. However when the inevitable bad run occurs it doesn't take long to blow the bank.

I have also been burnt badly in the past with forming my own market ie deciding that horse (a) is showing odds of 10/1 and my market suggest it should be 5/2. Horse (b) is favourite and should be 8/1 in my market. etc etc etc.

Unfortunately there are often reasons the average punter is not aware of as to the price disparity. So often a horse that blows continually from it's opening quote, even when thrown in at the weights, superior class and form... will run last, and a horse that won a country maiden by a head in its previous start romps in.

One of my elimination clauses is to dump a selection if it blows more than 4 points from its opening price.

My success lately I believe is because my system actually only selects between one and four races to bet on, out of around 32 races that are usually available in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide.

In saying all of the above, I have a mate who has nerves of steel and does do well out of Dutch betting and following the market. He has two partners in other states and bets on most metro tracks and has a sophisticated setup of computers, Skype and every gismo known to man.
He makes a good living and wins as often as a successful bookie. He has the personality of George Clooney on Oceans 11 and is cool as a cucumber.
A few years ago he asked me to join up. I checked out his amazing setup and witnessed a day at the races. Split second decisions have to be made and still with a cool calculating head, just before the gates open.

He is just 45 and I reckon he will retire any time from now a very rich man.

Unfortunately I can't operate like that so in fairness to him I had to decline his offer. Definitely heart attack material for a mere mortal like myself!!

Welcome aboard Brett

Dave

Wow RP,

Great Thread.

Can I run this past you to see if I understand this.

2 Budderoo Dragon is 2.8 fave and as such a 31% chance
14 Shawinigan at 10 was 7th fave and a 4% chance
1 Big City Dreams 26 was 13th fave and a 0% chance
So 35% of winning or odds of around $2.85

To dutch for a return of $100 you would need:-
@ 2.8 bet $36 for 100
@ 10 bet $10 for 100
@ 26 bet $4 for 104

So $50 outlay for min return 100 ($2) or max return 104 ($2.02) so it would be and a considerable underlay

Cheers

Brett

There' a lot that goes on in the seconds between the official race start time and the actual start time, just watch your tote screen!

RP

Brett, Horse 1 $2.80 has a historical chance of winning 31% of races, but it's price says that it's got a 36% chance of winning so value if Laying not Backing.

Horse 2, has a historical chance of winning 4% of races, but it's price says that it's got a 10% chance of winning. Again another Lay opportunity, not for Backers!

Horse 3, don't even bother including it to Back.You should be Dutch Laying the three to lose.

The Ready Reckoner is a rounded off somewhat, because it is not field size specific, just an average.

I have a WSR % Ready Reckoner for every field size. The tool has to be weighed up with other considerations though as underlays can be created by weight of money in the late stages of betting on a horse that will win, just over bet. So you're better off using the tool in the mid to fat end of the market.

RP

Thanks RP