For those of you not familiar with the term, a 'Middle' is an arbitrage bet combination mostly found in sports betting. It occurs when the two possible outcomes arbitraged, leave a 'middle' as a gap or overlap for a small loss each side of two winning outcomes OR a combined win each side of two smaller wins.

I have been lead to believe that under certain circumstances you can apply this to horse racing, specifically fields of 16+ in UK handicap races. In these races bookmakers actually pay 4th Place! In the Grand National even 5th Place.

The strategy is to Back every horse for a Place with a bookmaker and Lay every horse for a Place on an exchange. All stakes worked out to cater for odds differences and commission using an arbitrage calculator. The exchange only pays on 1st, 2nd & 3rd, the bookmaker though, pays 1/4 odds for 4th.

So the horse coming 4th, you win your Place Lay bet and your Back Place bet, every other outcome is cancelled out. Therein lies the 'Middle'.

Dunno....anyone considered it or experienced such an outcome? I'm sure there's a loophole....lol, there always is.

The loophole is the odds difference. Not saying it can't be done, but I've always found that the bookies odds will be much less than the exchange, so you can actually end up losing even though you got an extra place.

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Cheers CP, yes the source had reckoned he'd made 9,000 pound profit using 50 pound stakes in the last 18 months.....??? Stick to the soccer for 'middles', I think.....

The middles I mainly see are for markets that aren't the main head to head type markets.

i.e. you can often get middles during NBA season for player props on points, assists and rebound between different bookmakers. Never done it myself but I assume if you got too successful at it you'd be banned or limited.

I think Betfair pay out on 4 places in 16+ fields as well.

Is there another way of profiting when the Aus totes pay out on 2 places but Betfair pay out on 3 if originally it was a 8+ field but there is a scratching or two?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

Tried to check the Place rule with Betfair UK, but no luck. You're right about the 2nd part though and there should be a way to profit, just haven't found it yet....

Continuing on with this 'Middle' theme though, I'm studying a book 'Sports Arbitrage Guides' by El Green Sol. A complex book designed to encourage your own research as opposed offer answers!

There is one part wherein he comes to the part, "the secret of one of the Most Lucrative Middles" is in Horse Racing? he's not giving anything away though, except to say there are many opportunities each day to land one with every horse representing a single market. I'm assuming not just a simple Arb or Trade, as he's specific about 'Middles' (hint - false favourites tend to land in the middle very often when out of season)

This has got me perplexed as a middle is constructed normally with handicap betting where you back a team to score under a handicap and bet with another bookie to bet over a handicap, but there is a certain overlap with the handicaps in the middle (simple explanation as many variations).

I'm trying to use these methods to model a system for horse racing. It might be something like:

The favourite is the middle, if it wins that's great, but if it loses you still get a pay day even if breakeven?

OR

It might be a double where each leg is break even, small profit and the middle is getting both selections up?

Dunno?.... a challenge, just like he left it in his book.... :0

The 03:35am (Melbourne time) race at Sandown in the UK tonight has a field of 16 with 4 to be placed. "Who will finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th in this race? NON RUNNERS DO NOT CHANGE THE PLACE TERMS."

I can't seem to get a link for it.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

RP perhaps he is talking about middles from the win and place markets on the same runner.

Could be Fred, but with an each way bet, you can still lose. 'Arb Middles', apart from 'Polish Middles', are very safe with say a breakeven/2-3% return even if you don't strike the 'Middle'? So you have to Lay the Back Place bet somehow with an Arb to get that small return and then hope the horse wins to get the windfall?

Keep thinking....lol

Yes a polish middle is what I was thinking, can't imagine how you could get a risk-free middle on a single runner, but if you figure it out be sure to let us all know.