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#11
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An important question is how long ago was the book written?
Maybe he's talking about the favourite and side markets like favourite by x lengths or Dr Z's place method OR..... Something I looked at but couldn't get to work: You lay the favourite to place, but back it to win to recover the same amounts. Now every 2nd, 3rd, 4th placing where applicable, you'll lose, but unplaced, you'll lose nothing. Sounds daft, but here are some figures: If you never lost on unplaced favourites, and only backed placed favourites to win, then you'd return a 50.84% win strike rate and 39.43% win POT at tote prices. Then of course you deduct the loss of laying the favourite for the place. Or is the author American and talking of parlays and yankees etc.
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#12
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Quote:
A fairly recent book CP, Sept 2013. No it's not about Yankees and parlays, more UK Euro slant. I think I've nearly solved the riddle, working on a spreadsheet mock up now. I believe it's all about Each Way betting on UK markets. You need to set up an arb though. i.e. Get a lower Win and Place Lay price on the exchange than an Each way bet with a bookie. The Betfair Place prices are independent of the Win prices, but tied at the bookie to 1/4 or 1/5th of Win price. Then you need to adjust stakes and should be able to win no matter what the outcome, win, place or lose. Only the arb % diff in it though, so small returns, but that's OK, as there's more action than waiting for a soccer match to finish ![]() |
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#13
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Not sure I get it completely, but even if it's 1% return, on a regular basis, compounded, that's massive as long as you factor in commission.
Sorry, I'm a bit cloudy these days ![]()
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 344,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2021 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
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#14
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Yeah solved it. Need to strike an arb between Betfair and a bookie on a each way bet. The middle is when your selection wins, each side of that, you make about half as much if the selection is Placed or Unplaced. Typically 2% for the win and 1% for any other outcome.
Striking the arb is the laborious part. |
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#15
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I think I remember why I couldn't get it to work.
The win and place markets on Betfair are considered seperate markets of course, so effectively you're paying 10% commission on an eachway bet.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 344,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2021 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg |
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#16
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I'll send you a spreadsheet tomorrow, I have factored in commission.
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